New Mexico Bowl – New Mexico State vs Fresno State Free Picks
New Mexico State Picking Up Steam As New Mexico Bowl Favorite Against Fresno State
Aggies Look To Build On Impressive 2023 Mark Against The Spread
One of 16 teams getting to play a bowl game in its home state, plenty of early money is landing on New Mexico State to win the New Mexico Bowl. When looking at the New Mexico State vs Fresno State picks, the Aggies have gone from being favored by one point to being a 3.5-point favorite.
The New Mexico Bowl will result in just the second meeting in the last 15 years between rivals that used to play on an annual basis.
New Mexico State is coming off a loss to Liberty in the Conference USA title game. The most noteworthy of the 10 wins for New Mexico State was a 31-10 win at Auburn. Fresno State was 8-1 before losing its last three games heading into an intriguing matchup when looking at the NCAAF bowl schedule.
New Mexico Bowl
Aggies vs Bulldogs 
Day/Time:
Records: New Mexico State (10-4) vs Fresno State (8-4)
Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, N.M.
Streaming: ESPN, ESPN+
Pavia Does It All For the Aggies
It was a memorable first season in Conference USA for New Mexico State after five seasons as an independent.
A big part of the success has come due to the improvement in the running game, as the Aggies went from averaging 4.6 yards per carry to 5.8 yards per rushing attempt. Keep that in mind regarding the New Mexico State vs Fresno State picks.
Quarterback Diego Pavia, who will be playing in his hometown of Albuquerque, leads the team with 861 rushing yards. He has also thrown for 2,915 yards and 26 touchdowns. He threw for a pair of touchdowns in a win against Bowling Green in the 2022 Quick Lane Bowl.
Trent Hudson, who led the Aggies with 10 touchdown catches and was second on the team with 36 catches, joins cornerback Reggie Akles (25 tackles, six pass breakups and eight kickoff returns) and safety Malachi McLean (11 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss) in the transfer portal.
Among Conference USA teams, only Florida International had a worse defensive passing efficiency number, so being down two members of the secondary likely won’t help when Fresno State goes back to pass.
Can the Bulldogs Defense Deliver?
Fresno State’s defense looked pretty imposing during a 5-0 start, as the Bulldogs allowed an average of 282 yards per game and 93 rushing yards per game. That included holding Arizona State out of the Pac-12 to 230 yards in a 29-0 win and also posting a win over Purdue out of the Big Ten.
The numbers jumped to 459 yards and 222 rushing yards as Fresno State dropped four of the last seven games, and the three wins came by five, seven and seven points. That is worth considering when it comes time to make New Mexico State vs Fresno State picks.
Defensive back Cameron Lockridge (12 tackles, one interception) and starting left tackle Jacob Spomer are out while linebacker Raymond Scott (22 tackles), reserve quarterback Logan Fife and safety Chrishawn Gordon (22 tackles) are in the transfer portal.
The good news for Fresno State is that the top five tackles are seniors led by Malachi Langley (80 tackles), Dean Clark (77 tackles) and Levelle Bailey (74 tackles, 3 interceptions)
Time For Former Rivals New Mexico State and Fresno State to Meet Again
This is the first meeting between these NCAAF teams since 2019 when Fresno State scored the game’s first 24 points on the way to a 30-17 win as a 21-point road favorite. The game fell under the 68-point total.
It was the first time the teams met since 2011, and it marked the seventh time in the last eight meetings that the game landed under the NCAAF odds total.
New Mexico State is among the national leaders with a 10-3-1 record against the spread this season, while Fresno State is just 4-8 against the CFB betting lines this season. That is enough to go with New Mexico State to cover as 3.5-point favorites and roll with the Aggies at -165 to win outright.
Fresno State has covered in just one of its last three neutral-site games, with New Mexico State covering in its lone neutral-site contest during that time.
New Mexico State is trying to win college bowl games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since capturing the Sun Bowl in 1959 and 1960.
Nine of New Mexico State’s last 12 games have finished under the total. However, it makes more sense to go with this game to finish over the 51-point total.
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