Texas, Washington Ride Hot Offenses Into CFP Semifinal
Sugar Bowl Playoff Semifinal Odds: Over/Under Holding Steady at 64
The Sugar Bowl kicks off this upcoming January 1st. We’ve got the latest updates on lines, injuries, departures and weather right here:
Texas opened at -5 and has held steady as a favorite, with very little movement on the betting line. The Longhorns dipped to -4 and have stayed there for the most part, climbing only briefly back to -4..5. As of Thursday afternoon, the Longhorns were back to being 4-point favorites. The Longhorns are also -180 on the moneyline, with Washington priced +150.
Despite its unbeaten record, Washington finds itself as an underdog for the third time in a four-game span. The Huskies won the last two instances, defeating Oregon State and Oregon in the Pac-12 Conference Championship Game.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see more line movement prior to kickoff, but certainly nothing significant. With a spot in the national championship game at stake, both teams should be close to whole for the College Football Playoff semifinal. Even from an injury standpoint, there’s relatively few question marks on both sides.
The Over/Under has also stayed relatively still, opening at 63.5 and climbing up to 64 before falling back to 63.5. Even so, that’s one of the highest remaining projected totals on the bowl calendar. It’s hardly a surprise, as the Longhorns and Huskies have combined to average over 73 points a game.
Now, check out the rest of the Sugar Bowl preview, originally published on December 8.
The college football playoff schedule gets underway on New Year’s Day, with No. 2 Washington facing No. 3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. It’ll follow the Rose Bowl featuring No. 4 Alabama and No. 1 Michigan.
Texas is down to a 4-point favorite after opening at -5. The Longhorns are also -180 on the moneyline. Meanwhile, Washington is +4 on the spread and +160 to win outright. The projected total has stayed steady at 64.
This is a rematch of last season’s Alamo Bowl, which Washington won 27-20. The winner will advance to play either Michigan or Alabama in the national championship game on Jan. 8 at NRG Stadium in Houston.
What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down the Sugar Bowl Playoff Semifinal odds.
CFP Semifinal at Sugar Bowl
Texas Longhorns vs Washington Huskies 
Records: Texas (12-1) at Washington (13-0)
Location: Caesars Superdome; New Orleans
Day/Time:
Streaming: ESPN
New Territory for Longhorns
Texas is heading to the College Football Playoff for the first time after winning the Big 12 Conference title. The Longhorns beat Oklahoma State 49-21 to move to 12-1 (8-1), their first double-digit win season since 2018. They subsequently leapfrogged Georgia and Florida State in the CFP rankings, climbing to No. 3 behind Michigan and Washington. They’re also ranked No. 3 in the AP poll.
As such, Texas has climbed to +265 to win the national championship after being priced at +2500 in the preseason. Its last NCAA title was in 2005.
Steve Sarkisian’s team has been profitable for bettors, recording a mark of 7-5-1 ATS. They’ve covered their last three games as a favorite and are 6-6 ATS (11-1 SU) in that role. At the same time, the Longhorns have gone Under the projected total in eight of their 13 games.
The Longhorns’ offense, led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, has been among college football’s best. They averaged 475.9 yards, ranking ninth while scoring 36.2 points per game. They scored 106 points over their last two games, leaving no doubts about their big-play capabilities.
Ewers returned from a midseason shoulder injury to finish with 3,161 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He was one of 11 FBS quarterbacks with a completion rate above 70%.
Departures & Injuries
It’s all hands on deck for Texas. Given the stakes, bettors don’t need to worry as much about any of Texas’ top players opting out to preserve their health.
Star running back Jonathan Brooks is out for the season after tearing his ACL, but freshman CJ Baxter has filled in adequately. Baxter rushed for 595 yards and four touchdowns on 129 carries (4.6 yards per carry).
Bettors must monitor the statuses of cornerback Ryan Watts (back) and receiver/punt returner Xavier Worthy (ankle) as they deal with injuries. Both players could potentially affect the Sugar Bowl playoff semifinal odds.
Heisman Finalist Penix Jr. Carrying Huskies
Washington edged Oregon 34-31 to win the Pac 12 Championship Game, keeping its bid alive for a perfect season. The Huskies improved to 13-0 (9-0), one of four unbeaten FBS teams remaining besides Michigan, Florida State and Liberty. As a result, the Huskies climbed to No. 2 in the CFP rankings as they made their first playoff appearance since the 2016-17 Fiesta Bowl.
At +750, Washington is the biggest longshot of the four semifinalists. It was priced +3500 in the preseason. Kalen DeBoer was lauded for the Huskies’ success, winning National Coach of the Year.
Despite its run of success, Washington has been a bit difficult for bettors to trust. It’s 6-6-1 ATS, including just 3-5-1 over the last nine games. But it did cover both times as an underdog, including last week against Oregon. The Huskies also went Under the projected total in seven of their 13 games, including each of the previous three.
The Huskies were proficient offensively, ranking 11th in yards per game (469.1) while averaging 37.7 points. They scored more than 40 points on six occasions and topped 50 points thrice. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. completed 65.9% of his passes for an FBS-high 4,218 yards, 33 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Remember that when using your betting odds calculator.
Accordingly, Penix Jr. won the Maxwell Award as the nation’s best all-around player and was the runner-up to LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels for the Heisman Trophy.
Departures & Injuries
Unlike the other three semifinalists, Washington isn’t a traditional powerhouse. The Huskies are in a unique position to compete for a national title. Barring injury, everyone is expected to be available.
Fortunately for the Huskies, they’re relatively healthy at the moment. Safety Asa Turner, a fifth-year senior, returned for the Pac 12 Championship Game after missing five games.
Offenses Promise Plenty of Fireworks
Oddsmakers are expecting an offensive shootout. The Sugar Bowl playoff semifinal Over/Under of 64 is the second highest total for any bowl game, behind only the Guaranteed Rate Bowl behind Kansas and UNLV (64.5).
It makes sense. Both teams have elite quarterbacks and an array of top playmakers. Washington scored at least 30 points 10 times, one fewer than Texas. They both ranked in the top 11 in yards per game.
Bowl games tend to be a bit unpredictable because of the long layoffs and unfamiliarity with opponents. But it’s reasonable to think this game will play to form.
For NCAAF betting odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
