Can Louisville Prove That It Belongs In The College Football Playoff?
The Kentucky-Louisville Matchup Is One Of The Best Rivalries In Sports!
The Louisville Cardinals have already clinched the ACC Championship Game. No matter what happens on Saturday, Louisville will play for a conference championship next weekend.
That’s because they’re playing an SEC opponent, the Kentucky Wildcats. A win or loss against a non-conference opponent has nothing to do with the ACC. However, it has everything to do with the College Football Playoff.
If things go their way, the Cardinals still have a chance to play in the CFP. First, the Cardinals must defeat Kentucky and earn the ACC Championship against Florida State. If that happens, Louisville, with one loss, could get into the Playoffs.
Should we be worried that the Cardinals are in a letdown spot at home in a rivalry game against Kentucky?
Oddsmakers don’t seem to be too phased. Louisville is a 6.5-point favorite at -122. Meanwhile, the total is sitting at 50.5.
We’ll talk about the Kentucky-Louisville matchup below.
Kentucky vs Louisville 
Day/Time:
Location: Cardinal Stadium
Streaming: ABC
Kentucky-Louisville Matchup Trends
The Kentucky Wildcats have lost four of their last five games. However, three of those four losses were against top-25 teams like Missouri, Tennessee, and Alabama.
Kentucky defeated Mississippi State but lost a three-point game to South Carolina on the road last weekend. The bookmakers were on par with that game, with Kentucky closing as 2.5-point underdogs. The Wildcats lost by three and didn’t cover, pushing them to 5-6 against the spread this season.
Meanwhile, the Over has hit in seven of 11 games for the Wildcats this season.
On the other hand, Louisville is 6-4-1 against the spread this season. The Cardinals picked up a cover against Miami, 38-31, in a nail-biting finish as one-point underdogs.
The Cardinals have also hit the Over and Under five times each this season. The other game played was a push.
Kentucky has defeated Louisville in four straight games in this rivalry. The Wildcats have also won against the spread in all four games.
Did Kentucky Underachieve This Year?
The Kentucky Wildcats lost Will Levis and Chris Rodriguez Jr. to the NFL Draft last season. That hurt their offense heading into this season.
However, Kentucky elected to bring in transfer Devin Leary, who previously had great success at the ACC level with North Carolina State.
This year, he threw 20 touchdowns but also has nine interceptions. The offense was inconsistent but still had Ray Davis at running back. He’s just ten yards away from earning 1,000 yards on the ground this season.
Kentucky won the games they were supposed to. They just lost to ranked NCAAF teams like Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, and Alabama. Last week’s loss to South Carolina was likely the only game that Kentucky’s fanbase expected to win that they didn’t.
The Wildcats are still going bowling this year. They can still earn a massive win in the regular season finale against Louisville.
This season wasn’t a failure for Kentucky.
Louisville Can Still Make The CFP
The Cardinals’ chances of playing in the College Football Playoff are still reasonable.
Louisville has one loss this season to Pittsburgh. It was a bad loss on the road in a monsoon that Louisville wishes to have back.
But with a win against Notre Dame and other ACC opponents, the Cardinals still have a solid resume of wins. An ACC Championship win over Florida State could take them over the top.
However, they’d need help.
Louisville has to beat Kentucky and Florida State. That’s a given. However, they’d root for Iowa to defeat Michigan or Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
Then, the Louisville Cardinals would want Georgia to defeat Alabama in the SEC Championship and Oklahoma to surpass Texas in the Big 12 Championship.
Meanwhile, Louisville would hope for Oregon to lose to Oregon State this weekend. They’d still want Washington to pull through in the Pac-12 if Oregon won.
The rankings in these scenarios would be:
1. Georgia
2. Washington
3. Ohio State/Michigan
4. Louisville
Louisville would prefer Michigan to play Iowa and lose in the Big Ten Championship. Michigan’s only major wins would be Ohio State and Penn State. Meanwhile, Louisville and Ohio State have a common win against Notre Dame. But Ohio State would have a win against Michigan to get past Louisville.
Louisville’s Home Field Advantage
The Louisville Cardinals are undefeated on their home field this season. It likely won’t change on Saturday.
Louisville has held teams to 18.36 points per game, allowing 202.36 yards in the air and just 98 yards on the ground. The Cardinals don’t have the greatest turnover differential, but they have a much more balanced offense than Kentucky.
Louisville has earned 243 yards in the air and about 187 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, Kentucky hasn’t even sniffed 200 yards in the air this season, with only 135.27 yards on the ground.
Kentucky’s at its best when Davis has the ball in his hands in the run game. But the Cardinals have a dominant front that stops the run well. This defense held Notre Dame’s Audric Estime to 20 yards on 10 carries. Louisville was home in that game, too. Its fans will bring the energy and be loud, knowing what’s at stake with the college football rankings.
Both teams have more games on the college football schedule moving forward. But this Kentucky-Louisville matchup and rivalry will be electric for so many reasons.
We’ve got the Cardinals escaping with a -6.5 (-122) cover using the NCAAF odds.
For college football betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
