CFP Finals Odds: Michigan Small Favorites Over Huskies
Undefeated Teams to Battle For National Championship
The CFP Final is this upcoming Monday. We’ve got the latest updates on lines, injuries, departures and weather right here:
There has been little movement in the CFP Finals point spread. There was a brief line move Tuesday morning down to Michigan -3.5, but the point spread quickly climbed back to Wolverines -4.5. The line has held steady at 4.5 ever since. The moneyline has seen a slight drop to Michigan -185. The Huskies are +160.
The total has climbed slightly to 56.5, where it has been the past few days. The over/under opened at 55.5 and made a slight dip to 55 before climbing back up the past few days.
On Wednesday, Washington coach Kalen DeBoer said he expects running back Dillon Johnson to be good to go. There wasn’t much doubt that he would play, but now it’s official. Johnson led the Huskies with 1,162 yards and 16 touchdowns. But he’s also a key part of the Huskies’ pass protection scheme.
The weather forecast for Monday isn’t good, but Houston’s NRG Stadium has a retractable roof that can come into play. Temperatures at kickoff are forecast to be in the lower- to mid-60s with winds blowing at 16 miles-per-hour. Gusts could reach 35 mph. There is a 70% chance of rain or thunderstorms, so don’t be surprised if the roof gets closed for the game.
Now, check out the rest of the CFP Final preview, originally published on January 2.
For all the flak the College Football Playoff committee received, they got it right. The top two teams in the rankings are going to be playing for the title. But it didn’t take a genius to place Michigan with the top NCAAF ranking and Washington right behind. They were the only undefeated teams remaining.
The CFP finals odds show the Wolverines opened as 4.5-point favorites late Monday night and the spread held steady into Tuesday morning. But early Tuesday the point spread dropped to Michigan -3.5 before bouncing back to 4.5.
The total also showed a small move, dropping to 55 after opening at 55.5. It also climbed back and is again at 55.5. The moneyline has held pretty steady, however. The current odds are Michigan -190, with the price on the Huskies at +163.
CFP Finals
Washington vs Michigan 
Day/Time:
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Stream ESPN
Washington Proving Non-Believers Wrong
The Huskies are going to have a chip on their shoulders. People have been saying they’re overrated and don’t deserve to be in the playoffs for several games now. This is a team that were 1.5-point underdogs at Oregon State after starting 10-0.
Washington was 10-point underdogs in the Pac 12 Conference championship game. They were 3.5-point underdogs against Texas. Now, they’re 3.5-point underdogs once again.
You can’t blame Washington for taking the ‘us against the world’ mentality. The team gets little respect. The Jeff Sagarin college football ratings have Oregon ranked higher than Washington after the Huskies beat the Ducks twice. Washington played a tougher schedule than Oregon, were 3-0 against Sagarin’s top 10 teams, while Oregon was 0-2 – with both of those losses being to Washington. Yet, the Ducks are rated 5.5 points better.
Everybody talks about Michael Penix Jr. and you can’t blame them. He threw for 4,648 yards and 35 touchdowns against nine interceptions this season. The Huskies can run the football with Dillon Johnson, who had 1,162 yards and averaged 5.2 yards per carry.
But the Huskies would rather pass, as that’s their strong suit. Washington averaged 474.8 total yards per game and 37.6 points per game. Washington averages 4.7 yards per carry, but runs just 27 times per game. The Huskies throw 37 times per game.
The defense is a little overshadowed by the offense. But it’s not bad. The Huskies don’t have the numbers of a defense like Michigan. But the Wolverines didn’t face Bo Nix twice, Caleb Williams and the other Pac 12 quarterbacks.
Washington allows 267.1 passing yards per game. But that has more to do with who they’ve faced. The Huskies aren’t as bad as their numbers may suggest without putting it in context. The run defense is average, which really isn’t that bad considering the quality of the offenses it faced during the year.
Departures & Injuries
The four NCAAF teams playing in the college football playoffs fared pretty well in keeping their players. The biggest losses were the Huskies were three role players, including backup quarterback Dylan Morris. He threw 14 passes this season. No other backup QB threw a pass. If Penix is injured, the Huskies are in trouble.
Safety Vincent Nunley had 16 tackles and one interception during the season. Cornerback James Smith didn’t make a tackle all NCAAF season.
Wolverines on a Mission
It’s hard to tell who wants a national championship more, Jim Harbaugh or his players. But you can’t blame Harbaugh. After losing his first five tries against Ohio State, there were people calling for his ouster. The Wolverines have won the last three games with the Buckeyes and are now a win away from their first championship since 1997.
The Wolverines reached this point thanks to a devastating defense that holds teams to 10.2 points per game. Michigan has allowed 20 or more points three times in their last four games, however.
The lone exception was an Iowa team that is inept offensively. But the level of competition also got better over those four games. Maryland, Ohio State and Alabama are certainly better than the likes of Indiana, Minnesota or Michigan State.
The Wolverines allow 3.1 yards per rush to teams averaging 4.1 yards per carry. But it’s the pass defense that shines the brightest. Michigan allows 150 passing yards to teams averaging 195.1 yards.
The Wolverines allowed 5.8 yards per pass and 4.3 yards per play. The top five defensive teams in yards per play are all from the Big 10 Conference. So that means there are also some poor offenses thrown into the conference mix.
Michigan’s offense is solid. The Wolverines like to run the ball, but the passing game also gets the job done. Michigan averaged 9.0 yards per pass attempt during the season. The Wolverines run the ball 37.3 times per game and throw 24.4 times. On the ground, Michigan averaged 4.3 yards per carry against teams who allowed 3.7 yards per rush.
Departures & Injuries
Michigan only had a pair of backup running backs, CJ Stokes and Leon Franklin enter the transfer portal. But the two had a combined 15 carries for 41 yards and one touchdown for the season.
The biggest loss for Michigan was starting right tackle Zak Zinter, who suffered a broken leg against Ohio State and will miss this game.
Can Huskies Surprise One Last Time?
The CFP finals odds have the Huskies as underdogs once again and it’s a role that has suited the team well this season. Expect the Washington coaching staff to use that as a motivation factor for the Huskies, not that they should need one at this point of the season.
For the Huskies, the offense is going to have to carry the load against a tough defense. But the Michigan stop unit has looked human over the course of the last month.
The Huskies get the nod in the strength of their NCAA football schedule. Sagarin has Washington as having played the third toughest slate in the country. The Wolverines are at No. 49. The Pac 12 teams have given a decent accounting of themselves in the college bowl scores. You can’t automatically bet against the conference in the college bowl games.
The Wolverines are a solid team all-around. That’s evidenced by the CFP finals odds. This is the last box Harbaugh wants to check on his college coaching resume and his players know it. Look for the Wolverines try to establish the run early and stick with it as long as it’s working.
JJ McCarthy may not be quite as good as some of the quarterbacks the Huskies have faced during the year. But if he can throw when Washington isn’t expecting it, he can put up some big numbers.
These are the best two teams in college football this season. It’s only fitting they’ll battle for the national championship on Monday.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
