The ACC is wide open this year!
Louisville and Duke still have a chance to play in the ACC Championship game heading into Week 9.
The team that wins this game between Duke and Louisville will have a much higher probability of flipping that dream of playing in the ACC Championship turn into a reality.
Louisville had a bye week to prepare for Duke last weekend. But before that bye week, the Cardinals lost to Pittsburgh on the road, pushing them to 6-1 on the season.
On the other hand, the Duke Blue Devils lost to the ACC’s top team in, Florida State, 38-20. The Blue Devils started Riley Leonard at quarterback, but he wasn’t 100%. That likely took a toll on them in the second half.
It’s unclear if Leonard will be healed in time for this matchup against Duke. However, the Blue Devils can’t afford another ACC loss, especially with a game on the road against Louisville.
With the Cardinals sitting at -4, oddsmakers believe that the Cardinals have a higher probability of earning the win. Meanwhile, the total is at 47 for this ACC matchup.
Let’s take a look at the Duke vs Louisville betting odds for this significant ACC tilt.
Location: Cardinal Stadium
Duke vs Louisville Betting Odds
The Louisville Cardinals are currently a more-than-a-field-goal favorite against Duke at home for Saturday’s matchup. Again, the total is at 47.
Duke has covered four of seven games this season but failed to cover its most recent game against Florida State on the road as 13.5-point favorites. The Blue Devils were in the game until they ran out of gas in the second half.
Meanwhile, Duke’s totals have gone 3-3-1 this season. The Over last hit against Florida State, but the total hit Under in the previous two Duke games before the matchup against the Seminoles.
On the other hand, Louisville has gone 3-3-1 against the spread despite being 6-1 this season. The Cardinals’ most recent game against Pittsburgh resulted in an against-the-spread loss. Louisville was a 7-point favorite against Pittsburgh on the road and lost outright, 38-21. Like Duke, the total has gone 3-3-1.
This season, Louisville is 3-0 at home. Duke is just 1-1 on the road.
The Cardinals have defeated Duke in their previous two matchups. The last one came on November 18, 2021, where Louisville earned a 62-22 win as 20-point favorites.
Duke’s Riley Leonard is Hurt Again
The Duke Blue Devils weren’t sure they’d have starting quarterback Riley Leonard available for their NCAAF matchup against Florida State. He was listed as doubtful all week but found a way to get on the field for the big matchup against No. 4 Florida State.
Leonard previously had a high ankle sprain from an incident against Notre Dame in the game’s final play three weeks ago.
To start the game, he never looked to run the football, and he wasn’t very efficient at passing the football.
In the second half, Leonard’s facemask was grabbed and thrown to the ground. He had put all his weight on his ankle during that play and reaggravated the injury.
Head coach Mike Elko explained that Leonard wanted to return to the game. But Elko said he wasn’t comfortable putting Leonard into the game with his injury.
Leonard will likely start against Louisville if he felt like he could’ve played against Florida State. But he’s going to be limited. His running ability is what sets him apart. Without that, he’s nothing special.
Louisville Needs A Bounce Back
The Louisville Cardinals have won some challenging, tight games this season. The Cardinals knocked off North Carolina State on the road and earned a significant home win against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
However, before its bye week, Louisville took its 6-0 record to Pittsburgh and lost the undefeated season against a NCAAF team that might not even be bowl-eligible by the time the season concludes.
Louisville still has a chance to make the ACC Championship game, especially after North Carolina’s home loss to Virginia. That game was way more embarrassing than Louisville’s loss to Pittsburgh.
Hopefully, the Cardinals were able to reflect during the bye week and get back on track this week for a significant battle against Duke in a top-25 matchup.
Louisville’s Offense Is Still Great
The Cardinals only scored 21 against Pittsburgh on October 14 in a 38-21 loss. But the weather was rainy, and the Cardinals were on the road. They made many mental mistakes and had some of their key NCAAF players out with injuries, like Jawhar Jordan.
In that game, Jordan earned two carries for eight yards. He had earned at least 16 carries in his previous four games and has rushed for over 100 yards in four games this season.
Look for the offense to recover. They’ve gained 462 yards per game, including 285.7 yards in the air and 176.3 yards on the ground. Quarterback Jack Plummer has thrown 13 touchdowns but also has eight interceptions. He’ll need to cut down the turnovers and mistakes, especially against good defenses like Duke.
This is likely the most challenging game for Louisville left on the NCAAF schedule.
Duke’s Offense Struggles
I’d be worried about Duke’s offense.
If Riley Leonard decides to play, the Blue Devils won’t be able to run with their quarterback as much as they’d like. Leonard only has three passing touchdowns this season. He’s also added two interceptions and doesn’t even have 1,000 yards throwing the football this year.
Instead, Leonard has averaged 7.1 yards per carry and has gained 339 yards on 48 attempts. However, against Florida State, Leonard rushed one time for 13 yards.
The offense won’t be good if Leonard can’t move around and play his regular game. That’s why the NCAAF odds favor the Cardinals.
Look at the recent NCAA football scores. Duke hasn’t looked great offensively since Leonard’s injury. After looking at the Duke vs Louisville betting odds, we’ll take Louisville at -4.
Can’t get enough? Here’s more!
- Jacksonville State vs FIU Odds: Gamecocks Impressive in Jump From FCS
- Georgia State vs GA Southern Odds: Eagles Slight Favorites
- Pittsburgh May Have Come Up with The Worst NCAA Football Bad Beat Yet
- FSU vs Wake Forest Preview: Don’t Trust The Wake Forest Quarterbacks
- College Football Upset Picks Week 8: Underdogs Who Will Win Outright