It’s that time of week when we look for the underdogs who will get an outright win in hopes of cashing that big plus-money ticket. It’s easier to find College Football picks against the spread, but to find a dog that will win outright has been downright elusive but not impossible.
On the year, favorites are 292-89 (.766) but still in the red at -5.08 units. It’s not profitable but still better than blindly betting underdogs on the ML, which has cost bettors 96.81 units. As usual, we must dig deeper to find those College Football upset picks. Let’s start in Ohio, where the Cincinnati Bearcats are hosting the Baylor Bears.
Upset Watch #1: Baylor Bears vs Cincinnati Bearcats
We’ve talked about this in past stories; being a 3.5-point favorite at home has been the needle in a giant haystack that favors the favorites. Underdogs getting +3.5 points are 11-11 this season with a profit of 5.00 units. A straight-up wager on the Bears would pay +145. We are making this one of our top moneyline wagers this week.
Cincinnati has lost four straight games, while Baylor had a week to prepare. We see 77% of the wagers coming in on the Bearcats, pushing this number up from its opener of -2. The Bears have proven they can win on the road with a 36-35 win at UCF.
Expect quarterback Blake Shapen to have a big day, improving on a passing offense that ranks 30th in the country. NCAA Football scores this week will show this match-up as one of the more entertaining on the card. We continue our College Football upset picks by placing our money on the Clemson at Miami clash.
Upset Watch #2: Clemson Tigers vs Miami Hurricanes
A moneyline wager on the Miami Hurricanes will only pay +125, but that still falls under the outright dog winner parameters, and this is about cashing tickets. 62% of the wagers against the spread are on Clemson, forcing the juice (-115), not the spread, to move on the spread.
The books are more than comfortable taking Clemson money. 3-point favorites are 11-13 this season overall, but just 5-9 SU on the road, advantage Miami. If the Hurricanes are to cash a winner at home, they’ll have to break the Tiger’s 4-game winning streak in the series, while outsourcing Miami 178-30 in that span. If you don’t want to do the match, that’s an average win of 37 points per game.
With a problematic NCAA Football schedule coming up for Miami, if they don’t win this, we could be looking at a Hurricanes program that could finish with four losses at best. Take Miami to win outright. We conclude our three College Football upset picks with the longest shot on the card.
Upset Watch #3: Buffalo Bulls vs Kent State Golden Flashes
With this one, we need to do a public service announcement because we’ve already established that betting moneyline is not the way to make consistent money. So you’ve been warned to take it easy and have fun with these.
That said, the Golden Flashes are getting back +220 on the moneyline as a touchdown dog at home. This season, 7-point favorites have won outright seven times in 17 games, good for 5.15 units of profit. Take Kent State at home. That’s our three College Football upset picks, we wish you nothing but the best with your plays this week.