Holiday Bowl: (15) Louisville Cardinals vs USC Trojans
Neither team has been a friend to bettors this season, but USC causes the most concern.
The Holiday Bowl kicks off this upcoming Wednesday. We’ve got the latest updates on lines, injuries, departures and weather right here:
It appears that the numbers in this match-up will close Louisville -7 with a total of 58.5 after opening Louisville -6.5 and 57.5. These numbers should stay where they are despite 58% of the money coming in on the Cardinals because 65% of the tickets are on the USC Trojans. From the people we’ve talked with, bookmakers are very comfortable where they are and won’t move the side unless there is significant money coming in over the next day.
We’ve talked about how to handle these bowl games with the portal, which is causing so much uncertainty among bettors. As usual, we need to take a step back, exhale, and get back to what makes us successful, and that’s across the offensive line and who they’re protecting.
For USC, we know that Caleb Williams will not play because he’s decided to make himself eligible for the NFL draft, but the Cardinals were not void of loss after running back Jawhar Jordan and leading receiver Jamari Thrash (858 yards receiving), who will be following Williams into the draft.
Even with the Cardinals’ massive losses, they’ll be facing a defense that is ranked 122nd in the nation (438.8) yards per game and 125th in points allowed (34.9 ppg). Back to the quarterbacks. USC will start red-shirt Sophomore Miller Moss, who will face College Football’s 16th-ranked defense (307.3 yards allowed per game).
Moss has thrown 59 passes in 10 games at USC with three touchdowns and no picks. The Trojans will watch in envy at a Ron English defense that will give Moss fits, but this may be the best thing to happen to USC because they didn’t have a quarterback transfer into the program from the portal, leaving the program with inexperience heading in 2024.
Louisville will start red-shirt senior transfer Jack Plummer behind center. Plummer started 13 games for Louisville in 2023, completing 63.5% of his passes to go with 21 touchdowns and a less than sparkling 12 interceptions.
Before we automatically give the advantage to the Cardinals at quarterback, we can’t forget how ineffective Plummer was against Florida State in the ACC Title game (14-36-111 yards, 0TD, 1 INT). That game gave the Trojans a blueprint to study for weeks. It’s closer than you might think, but the Cardinals have an advantage across the offensive line.
Now, check out the rest of the Holiday Bowl preview, originally published on December 8:
The 15th-ranked Louisville Cardinals (10-3) head to San Diego to participate in the 2023 Holiday Bowl against the USC Trojans (7-5). This is the first time the Cardinals have played in this game, while the Trojans will be making their fourth appearance, but first since 2019 when they were crushed by #19 Iowa, 49-24.
Louisville will be playing in its 26th postseason bowl game with a record 12-12-1, while USC is adding to its total of 56 total postseason games (34-21). Opening Holiday Bowl odds show Louisville -6.5 with a total of 57.5. So far, books are being overwhelmed with Cardinals money, pushing that number to -7.5 and 58. It’s mostly due to USC quarterback Caleb Williams not playing.
Holiday Bowl Information
Louisville Cardinals vs USC Trojans 
Day/Time:
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, California
Stream: FOX
Cardinals Regroup After Being Left Out By Orange Bowl
According to those who cover the Louisville football program, Florida State wasn’t the only team that came out of the ACC Championship game with less than what they expected.
Because Alabama is going to the playoffs to play for a college football national championship and not the Seminoles, FSU was forced to accept an invitation to play in the Orange Bowl, a game the Cardinals thought they were locked into, according to most college football bowl projections.
Nothing against the Holiday Bowl, but there are about 30 million reasons why the university would rather find itself in Miami than in San Diego. In addition, the school lost more money because Florida State was not in the top four, which would have assured the school another $10 million.
Enough about finances. First-year Head Coach Jeff Brohm led his team to a 7-1 ACC record after preseason projections had them towards the bottom of the conference. Their fate could have been better if they suffered from a full belly after handing 10th-ranked Notre Dame a 33-20 loss, only to lose the week after at Pittsburgh, 38-21.
The Cardinals own the nation; 14th best team against the run (101.9 YPG) and 16th best defense overall (307.3 YPG). Louisville was just 5-6-1 ATS this season (6-6 depending on the number) and now has failed to produce a profit in three of their last four seasons. The Cardinals were 4-6-1 ATS as a favorite but 0-3 as a favorite on a neutral field this season. One interesting nugget: Louisville is 8-2-1 ATS against teams playing .550 ball or better over the last three seasons.
Departures & Injuries
The good news for Louisville is that they won’t deal with any significant injuries before their bowl game. Brohm’s team has had to deal with a few defections in the transfer portal, with a total of eight Cardinals declaring their desire to play elsewhere.
The Cardinals took a massive hit when Kameron “Kam” Wilson decided to enter the portal after giving Louisville tremendous depth at DE. He is the fourth cardinal to leave the program off the defensive line. He played less as the season went on, something that played a part in his decision.
Even with the losses, none should alter how the Louisville should be handicapped in the Holiday Bowl. Let’s turn our Holiday Bowl odds preview attention to the USC Trojans.
For Once Everyone Was Right
Heading into the 2023 season, everyone knew the Trojans were going to have one of the best offenses in college football. They would need every point the nation’s 12-ranked offense could muster because on the other side of the ball was a defense that allowed just under 35 points a game.
Lincoln Riley should feel fortunate in many ways that they’re going to the Holiday Bowl because of a couple of bad bounces in games against California (50-49 win) and Arizona (43-41 OT win), and they could have been home for the holidays.
After being exposed by Notre Dame in week 7 (48-20), the Trojans were just 1-4 the rest of the way after being favored in three of those games. To give you an idea of how bad the defense was, they allowed the Utah Utes to score 34 points in a 2-point loss.
The Utes have been one-dimensional all season after losing quarterback Cam Rising, finishing 117th in passing yards with just 173.6 per game. From a betting standpoint, USC was a 3-9 ATS disaster. It marked the sixth time in the last seven seasons that the Trojans have failed to turn a profit.
The USC Trojans were an underdog three times this season, covering just once. Since 2014, bettors are 19-28 ATS when putting their money on USC against teams playing .750 ball or better, 8-13 ATS in those games when an underdog.
Departures & Injuries
There were some portal transfers for the Trojans, but mostly just kids looking for more playing time. There’s enough for bettors to worry about, but there’s nothing that should impact your handicapping of this game from a transfer perspective.
Just to reiterate, in case you’re scratching your head looking at the number, USC QB Caleb Williams will not play as he is packing his bags for the NFL. That is the only player of significance to betting, but obviously, his departure has as much effect on the college football odds as any this bowl season.
Field Position To Play Critical Role
We’re not sure the word duh is an appropriate way to express ourselves when we talk about the total, but field position will be the deciding factor in this game’s total. We think that will be more true in this match-up.
Without Williams, if the Trojans can’t move the ball with red-shirt sophomore Miller Moss behind center or whoever starts, then that defensive that almost everyone shredded this season will be asked to protect short fields.
We see a relatively balanced amount of tickets coming in on the total, but as the next couple of weeks progress, we expect that over wagering will move this number up more. We’re going to hold off on our official selection, but our initial thoughts are to get on that total now before it goes up. That concludes our Holiday Bowl odds preview, we wish you nothing but the best with your wagers this bowl season.
For NCAA bowl odds predictions, college football betting lines and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
