The No. 7 Texas Longhorns make the trip to Fort Worth, Texas, to face the TCU Horned Frogs in a Saturday night contest. The Longhorns are tied for the Big 12 Conference lead with a 5-1 record, the same record as Oklahoma State. TCU is fighting for a bowl berth, but at 4-5, needs to upset either Texas or Oklahoma, along with defeat Baylor. So TCU could go from the college football playoffs to missing a bowl game. The Texas vs TCU college football picks have Texas -10 with a total of 53.5.
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Line: Texas -10
Texas Coming Off Hard-Fought Victory
The Longhorns enter this one off a tough 33-30 victory over Kansas State as 3-point favorites. Texas dominated on the ground, gaining 230 yards to 33 for the Wildcats. Kansas State had a 327-248 passing yards advantage, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Texas’ supremacy on the ground. The Longhorns average 185.8 rushing yards and 271.2 yards through the air. Texas is scoring 34.3 points against teams allowing 25.2 points per game. There isn’t much Texas doesn’t do well offensively.
The NCAAF stats show the Longhorns allowing 17.6 points against teams averaging 30 points per game. Texas allows 90.7 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry. The Texas defense isn’t as good defending the pass, allowing 240.9 yards per game and 6.7 yards per attempt.
Despite being 8-1 straight-up, Texas is just 4-4-1 against the spread. The Longhorns are 3-6 in totals on the season, with the defense doing its job to keep scoring down.
TCU Faltering Down the Stretch
After starting the season 3-1, the Horned Frogs have dropped four of their last five games. TCU is now a longshot to earn a bowl berth unless it pulls off a big upset down the stretch. The Horned Frogs are pretty good offensively, scoring 29.2 points per game against teams allowing 26.2 points. The defense isn’t bad, allowing 24.3 points to teams averaging 27.5. The Frogs have better stats than you’d expect from a team with a losing record.
TCU for for 165 yards per game and throws for 296.6, so moving the ball isn’t a problem for TCU. The Horned Frogs haven’t done the best job capitalizing on opportunities. TCU scores a point for every 15.8 yards of offense. The teams they’ve played allow a point for every 14.6 yards surrendered.
The Texas vs TCU college football picks show TCU allows 3.9 yards per rush to teams averaging 3.9 yards a carry. Just as TCU allows 7.1 yards per pass to teams averaging 7.1 yards per pass. So, the Horned Frogs are pretty much average in the stats department. TCU has held teams to one point for every 15.8 yards.
What to Expect
The Longhorns should have some success on the ground or through the air. It’s a matter of how Texas tries to move the ball. The TCU defense hasn’t shown it’s capable of stopping the run or pass and making the Longhorns into a one-dimensional team. The Longhorns do like the run the ball a little more than throw and that should be the case once again.
TCU is going to try and play up-tempo. The Horned Frogs run 77 offensive plays per game compared to 69.6 plays for the Longhorns. TCU is likely to throw the ball a little more than normal due to Texas’ run defense.
TCU is just 3-6 against the Vegas odds for NCAA football, losing both games as an underdog. The Horned Frogs are just 2-3 against the spread at home this season.
Who to Bet On?
The Texas vs TCU college football picks are a little bit tough with the current line of Texas -10. The Longhorns are the better team on both sides of the ball. But the difference isn’t really all that great. Texas rates out to be 11.5 points better on a neutral field and that makes it tough to use the Longhorns as one of your NCAAF daily picks.
The total might be a little bit on the low side, but it’s one of those numbers that give you pause. The over appears to be worth a look. But the number was set a little on the low side for a reason.
The Texas vs TCU college football picks will take TCU +10, which appears to be offer a little bit of value. The over/under is too tough to make a call.
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