Memphis vs UAB Free Picks: Tigers Road Favorites at Blazers
Total Could Hit the High 60's...
The Memphis Tigers visit the UAB Blazers on Saturday in an American Athletic Conference game. It’s a game that normally wouldn’t draw much attention, but it’s being televised by ESPN2, so it gets more wagering action. The network could have done worse. Despite neither squad being one of the top college football teams, this game should prove to be pretty entertaining. The Tigers are favored by 5.5 and the total is 63. The Memphis vs UAB free picks will break down both teams and trends for this game.
Memphis vs UAB 
Day/Time:
Location: Protective Stadium; Birmingham, Alabama
Streaming: ESPN2
High Total Justified With UAB Defense
Nobody will deny both teams can move the ball. Memphis is scoring 34.0 points per game against teams allowing 30.9. UAB is putting up 30.1 points a game against teams allowing 26.2 points for the season. So both have been effective. It’s the defenses where the separation between the two teams starts to take place.
The Tigers are allowing 23.0 points per game to teams averaging 24.4. The Blazers allow 36.6 points to teams averaging 28.5 points, so UAB’s stop unit leaves a bit to be desired this season.
The Tigers have been overpriced much of this season, as evidenced by their 1-4-1 record against the spread. But Memphis did win its lone game as a road favorite this season and has been strong in the past as a road favorite in high total games. The Tigers are 9-3-1 ATS since 2015 as a road favorite in games with a total of 63 or greater.
But UAB has had success as a home underdog in high total games, going 7-3 ATS in that role. The Blazers are 12-6 ATS as a home underdog receiving 5.5 points or less. UAB has been one of the better teams for the college football odds and predictions over the years as a home underdog, going 29-13-1 ATS.
Memphis Usually Bounces Back Nicely
The Tigers are coming off a 31-21 loss to Tulane as 5-point home underdogs. It’s a situation Memphis has done well in, going 12-8-1 against the spread after a loss since the start of the 2018 season. The Tigers are 8-4-1 as a favorite after a loss.
Memphis is throwing for 284.3 yards per game, but it needs its ground game to be working. The Tigers rush for 142.5 yards per game, but Memphis lost both games it failed to break 100 rushing yards. That shouldn’t be a problem against a UAB defense that is allowing 5.5 yards per carry. The Tigers throw 37 times per game and rush 33 times, but they may want to change that up. Memphis is 0-3 ATS in the three games it has thrown for more than 300 yards.
Defensively, Memphis has been effective, although not particularly great. The Tigers allow 369.5 total yards, which is nearly 25 yards more per game than their opponents average. But Memphis has done a decent job of minimizing the damage, allowing a point for every 16.1 yards surrendered.
UAB Defense Has to Show Improvement
The Blazers may not be putting up many wins, but they are keeping their backers happy. UAB has gone 4-3 against the point spread and are 3-2 as underdogs. It’s hard to fault the UAB offense for the team’s 2-5 record. The Blazers put up 21 points on Georgia’s defense, the most the Bulldogs have allowed this season. UAB is throwing for 294 yards per game and rushes for 143.7.
Thankfully, for the UAB defense, the offense can put up points and take time off the clock or it would be really ugly. The Blazers allow 428.7 yards of total offense and teams score a point for every 11.7 yards they gain. While the stats show the Blazers allow 36.6 points per game, that’s slightly misleading. After holding North Carolina A&T to six points in the opener, the Blazers have allowed at least 35 points in their last six games, four times allowing more than 40 points.
The Blazers get credit for having played a slightly tougher NCAAF schedule than Memphis, a result of having Georgia on the schedule. But it’s still ranked as the No. 73 schedule in the country compared to Memphis’ No. 108.
What to Expect
The Memphis vs UAB free picks expect Memphis to come out and run the ball early. The Tigers are pretty average at running the ball. But UAB hasn’t shown the ability to stop anybody. That will open up the passing game for Memphis QB Seth Henigan, who has thrown for 13 TDs so far. The Tigers need to enter the game with the mindset of taking what the defense gives and not going for the big play. Big gains will come to Memphis if the Tigers are patient enough.
The Blazers also like to mix things up, but might have a bit more success through the air. Jacob Zeno is completing 74.4% of his passes and Memphis’ passing defense stats are a little misleading. The Tigers opened up with a pair of overmatched teams, who threw for a combined 205 yards, then had run-oriented Navy on its NCAAF schedule. The Memphis vs UAB free picks expects the Blazers to throw early and often.
Memphis vs UAB Free Picks
Memphis takes to the road for just the second time all season. The first game was against an outclassed Arkansas State team. But the Blazers will pose a whole different challenge in that UAB can actually move the ball and put up points on the scoreboard.
This is the first time Memphis has played to a total higher than 60 all season. But the Tigers have allowed more than 30 points in each of their last three games against offenses that are comparable to the Blazers.
UAB is going to put up some points, but the defense will allow its share of points. Both teams are more than capable of putting up at least 30 and the over 63 is the way to bet this game. The total is high, but the offenses should put up enough points to get over the number.
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