Tennessee vs Alabama Odds: Tide in Another Big SEC Showdown
Vols Need Running Game to Shine Against Tide
In one of the better college football games of the day, No. 17 Tennessee (5-1) visits Alabama (6-1). Both NCAAF teams have a Southeastern Conference loss, adding a bit more pressure on the teams here. Both teams are coming off hard-fought wins.
The Vols survived Texas A&M last week, taking a 20-13 win a 3-point favorites. The Tide almost got caught looking ahead to this one and defeated Arkansas 24-21, not coming close to covering the 19-point spread. The Tennessee vs Alabama odds have the Crimson Tide favored by 8.5 points and the total on the game is at 48.
Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide 
Day/Time: Saturday, October 21, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -8.5
Total: 48 Streaming: CBS
Vols Live or Die With Running Game
The Tennessee Volunteers are a run-first team, averaging 39 rushing attempts and 31 passes per game. For the Volunteers, the recipe for success has been simple. Rush for 200 yards and win. Run for fewer yards and lose. Tennessee is 5-0 when gaining 200 or more yards on the ground. The Vols rushed for 101 yards in their loss to Florida. Tennessee is averaging 231.5 yards on the ground, which is No. 6 in the NCAAF stats.
But the Volunteers are far from being a one-dimensional team, with quarterback Joe Milton III throwing for 1,264 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. He can also run from the pocket, with his four rushing TDs second on the team. Tennessee does gain fewer yards per pass attempt than their foes average. But as long as the ground game is working, it hasn’t made much difference.
Tennessee’s defense is doing its job, holding foes to 17 points a game, well under the 25.6 points they average. The Volunteers are strong against the run, allowing 3.0 yards per carry. Tennessee limits teams to 197.8 passing yards per game and allows just 4.4 yards per play.
Alabama Better Than Tide Gets Credit For
You’ll seldom see a 6-1 team more maligned than Alabama. It’s not a case of playing NCAAF games against a collection of weak teams. The Jeff Sagarin college football rankings have Alabama as having played the fourth-toughest schedule in the country.
It’s also not a case of not covering the NCAA lines football, as the Tide are 4-3 against the spread. It’s just people have unrealistic expectations for Alabama on a consistent basis. That’s not a bad position for a college football team to be in.
Alabama is averaging 30.6 points per game against teams that allow 26.1, so it’s not as though the Tide offensive is terrible. Quarterback Jalen Milroe may not be Bryce Young, but he’s thrown for 11 touchdowns and rushed for five more.
The Tide are averaging 219.4 passing yards per game, but are gaining 9.5 yards per pass attempt, which is No. 10 in the country. The running game is gaining 148.4 yards per game and 3.8 yards per rush against teams allowing 3.6 yards per carry.
Alabama’s defense has been strong as usual, allowing 16 points per game to teams averaging 31.4 points per game. The Crimson Tide are allowing 3.0 yards per rush to teams averaging 4.2 yards per carry and the defense against the pass has been solid. Alabama is allowing 4.5 yards per play, just behind Tennessee. The Tide is No. 6 in the country, while Tennessee is No. 4.
What to Expect
It’s no secret what Tennessee is going to try and do. The Volunteers are coming out with the intention of running the ball. If Tennessee has some success on the ground early, it will take the crowd out of the game and set the stage for the game. If Tennessee struggles to move the ball early, it could be a long game for the Vols. The Volunteers aren’t designed to come back from deficits. If the Vols get behind by a couple of scores, they could be in trouble against Alabama’s defense.
The Crimson Tide will also come in with a run first attitude and let Milroe do his thing as quarterback. Alabama is at its best when the opposition has to guess if the run or pass is coming next. The Tide have done a decent job of mixing things up offensively.
Who to Bet On?
The Tennessee vs Alabama odds are pretty much spot on. The betting on the game has been well split between the two teams, which is just what the sportsbook wants to see. The Volunteers have a slight edge in point differential, but the Tide have played a tougher schedule and are at home.
The Tennessee vs Alabama odds on the total are a bit more tricky. Alabama is 1-0-2 when the total is less than 50 this season, coming off back-to-back pushes with Arkansas and Texas A&M. The Volunteers are 2-4 in totals, but haven’t seen an over/under less than 54 all season.
There’s slight value on Tennessee +8.5 in this one. The Sagarin power ratings have the Tide about 7 points better at home and the line makes the Vols +8.5 the side to look at in this one.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
