Wisconsin vs Illinois Odds: Mordecai Injury Clouds Badgers’ Outlook

On the heels of a big upset against Maryland, the Illinois Fighting Illini will return home in Week 8 to face Wisconsin. The Badgers are a 2.5-point favorite (-110) but must overcome injuries to multiple key playmakers on offense.

The Badgers are also -135 on the moneyline, while the Fighting Illini are +2.5 (-110) on the spread and +114 to win outright. The projected total is 43 (-110 Over, -110 Under), up from 41.5.

Who has the edge? Read on as we break down the matchup and dive into the Wisconsin vs Illinois odds in our college football game preview.

Betting Trends

The Wisconsin Badgers are 2-4 against the spread this NCAAF season and 3-7 in their last 10 games. The total has gone Under in four of Wisconsin’s last five games. Meanwhile, the Illinois Fighting Illini are 1-6 ATS this season and 1-7 over their last eight games. The Fighting Illini have lost six straight games ATS. The total has gone Under in five of the Fighting Illini’s previous six games. That’s important to remember when assessing the Wisconsin vs Illinois odds.

Mordecai Sidelined

The Wisconsin Badgers suffered a devastating loss in Saturday’s 15-6 defeat to Iowa, losing quarterback Tanner Mordecai for the foreseeable future with a broken hand. A specific timetable on Mordecai’s return is unknown, but the Badgers will be without him for most, if not all, their remaining regular-season games.

With Mordecai down, the Badgers will now turn to redshirt freshman Braedyn Locke at quarterback. Locke performed adequately against Iowa, completing 15 of 30 passes for 122 yards and one interception. Since transferring from SMU, Mordecai averaged 187.8 passing yards through his first six games.

Wisconsin is now 4-2 after falling as an 8.5-point favorite to Iowa. A bowl game is still very much in reach, but the Badgers’ outlook in the Big Ten West NCAAF rankings is bit more complicated now that the Hawkeyes hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Badgers have also been without their projected No. 1 rusher in Chez Mellusi, who fractured his fibula in a Sept. 22 loss to Purdue. The Badgers are just 78th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 27.2 points per game. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Wisconsin vs Illinois odds.

Beating the Spread, At Last

The Illinois Fighting Illini pulled off one of the biggest upsets of Week 7, defeating Maryland 27-24 to move to 3-4. A 13.5-point underdog, Illinois covered the spread for the first time in seven tries this season.

Caleb Griffin’s 43-yard field goal made the difference as time expired.

Projected for 6.5 wins, the Fighting Illini have been a disappointment. Their defense, which allowed the fewest points in the country (12.8 per game) last year, has taken a step back.Will they start playing closer to their potential? Time will tell, but the Fighting Illini can at least start thinking again about a bowl.

The Fighting Illini’s remaining schedule is manageable. After a Week 9 bye, they’ll play just one ranked NCAAF team — No. 24 Iowa on Nov. 18 — over their final four regular-season games.

The Fighting Illini certainly could use improved play from quarterback Luke Altmyer. The Ole Miss transfer has thrown nine interceptions this season, tied with Georgia Southern’s Davis Brin for the second-most in FBS. He’s also been sacked 26 times, more than any quarterback in the Big Ten. That’s worth noting as you make your college picks today.

Handicapping the Game

Wisconsin is still formidable, but it’s hard to ignore the impact of Mordecai’s injury. Without him and Mellusi, the Badgers’ offense is considerably less dynamic. While Illinois has underperformed defensively, it still has playmakers up front like Jer’Zhan Newton to give Locke fits.

If Altmyer’s able to limit his turnovers, the Fighting Illini could be in a position to pull off another upset. Taking the Fighting Illini at +2.5 is enticing, even if they’ve largely struggled to this point. This is an opportunity to start building momentum at home.

For NCAAF scores and predictions, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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