UCF vs Oklahoma Preview: Sooners Huge Favorites Off Bye Week

The Central Florida Knights have had a tough go in Big 12 Conference games so far. And it’s about to get a whole lot tougher, as UCF visits No. 6 Oklahoma on Saturday. Central Florida began the season 3-0, but has dropped all three Big 12 games to fall to 3-3 on the season. The first two conference losses were fairly close games. But the 51-22 loss to Kansas wasn’t, as UCF fell to 2-4 against the college football betting lines. The Sooners are 6-0 straight-up and 5-0-1 against the spread. Oklahoma is coming off the victory against Texas, but were off this past week, so there shouldn’t be much of a letdown. The UCF vs Oklahoma preview has the Sooners favored by 20.5 points and the over/under is a lofty 63.5 points.

Knights Get Week to Rest Up

Both teams are coming into the game off bye weeks, although that hasn’t helped UCF much lately. Central Florida is 2-7 ATS when playing with more than 12 days in between games going back to the 2019 season. Both those spread wins came in bowl games, along with three of the losses. That leaves UCF on an 0-4 ATS run off regular season bye weeks. The Knights don’t have that bad of stats, outscoring opponents by a 35-27 margin on the season. The offense is getting the job done with 516.7 total yards per game against defenses that allow 435.3 yards per game.

UCF can run the football, gaining 246.3 yards per game. The Knights average 6.0 yards per rush against teams allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Central Florida runs 41 times and passes 27.7 times a game. The Knights are averaging 270.3 passing yards per game. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has missed a fair amount of time. But he wasn’t really that effective when he has played, throwing three touchdowns and four interceptions. UCF has nine TD passes and two interceptions on the season in place of Plumlee.

The defense hasn’t been very good against the run, allowing 5.0 yards per carry and 197.5 yards per game. A good portion of that has to do with Kansas rushing for 399 yards in UCF’s last game before the bye week. The Knights have decent numbers against the pass, but only because teams run 39.8 times and throw 28.3 times against the UCF defense.

Sooners Allowing Yards, Not Points

When you look at Oklahoma, you can talk about its offense or its defense. Both have been pretty solid this season. The Sooners are scoring 45.2 points per game against NCAAF teams that allow just 24 points on average. Oklahoma isn’t a great running team, although UCF’s rushing defense might make it look like one. The Sooners are averaging 165.5 yards on the ground. Oklahoma runs 40 times per game and throws 35. But the passing game is where Oklahoma does most of its damage. The Sooners are throwing for 341.2 yards per game against teams that allow 226.7 yards.

Oklahoma’s defense is holding teams to 14 points per game, which is 13.7 fewer points than their foes average. The Sooners are allowing 353.7 yards per game, so teams are moving the ball a bit. But Oklahoma is coming up with the stops when it needs them. Being a +10 in turnovers doesn’t hurt, either. The Sooners are especially good against the run, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry.

Oklahoma has played a tougher NCAA football schedule than UCF. The Sagarin college football rankings have the Sooners at No. 29 in strength of schedule played. The Knights are at No. 62.

What to Expect

The UCF vs Oklahoma preview shows the Knights run the ball first and foremost. They’ll likely try the Oklahoma defense, at least in the early going. Central Florida has been held under 200 yards just once this season, although none of the defenses its played are near the caliber of Oklahoma. The Knights can throw the ball some and the three games they won were the only three games the team threw for more than 270 yards.

The Sooners run the ball more than they pass and they may not need to pass often. Until UCF shows it can slow down Oklahoma’s rushing game, the Sooners are likely to keep pounding the ball at the Knights. Oklahoma will mix in some passes with former UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Sooners run a little more than usual. That will help make sure Gabriel isn’t a little too anxious to face his former team.

Who to Bet On?

The UCF vs Oklahoma preview notes the Knights lost their last two games as favorite. Now, they’ll try their hand as a double-digit underdog for the second time in five years. Teams who lost their last two games as a favorite and are now getting 20 or more points are on a 10-3 ATS run.

The Sooners are in a position where they have to pay attention to the NCAAF scores. They, along with teams like Penn State and Washington, are undefeated. But so are other teams and right now, those teams are out of the top four in the AP poll. Teams not only need to win, but win impressively if they want to get into the playoff field.

With that said, the number on Oklahoma could be a little bit high in this one. The Knights are laboring a little bit, but they still have some decent athletes and can make some plays. The line opened Sooners -18.5 and is now up to 20.5, giving the Knights a little bit of value as the play here.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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