Michigan State vs Iowa Preview: With Spartans Reeling, Hawkeyes Favored to Rebound

The Michigan State Spartans are reeling after head coach Mel Tucker’s departure. Can they turn around their fortunes anytime soon? Their first opportunity will come Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET) when they visit Big Ten foe Iowa.

The Hawkeyes opened as 7-point favorites, but the spread has since ballooned to -12.5 (-110). They’re also -450 on the moneyline, while Michigan State is +12.5 (-110) on the spread and +360 to win outright. The projected point total is now 37 (-105 Over, -105 Under) after opening at 39.

Read on as we break down the matchup in our Michigan State vs Iowa preview.

Spartans vs Hawkeyes Betting Trends

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 7-3 against the spread over their last 10 games, including 2-2 this season. The total has gone Under in four of their last five games. The Michigan State Spartans are also 2-2 ATS but just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 matchups with Iowa. The total has gone Under in four of the Spartans’ last five contests. That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Michigan State vs Iowa preview.

Offense? What Offense?

The Iowa Hawkeyes fell flat Saturday, losing 31-0 to No. 7 Penn State on the road. The Hawkeyes, 14-point underdogs, recorded just four first downs and 76 total yards. Unsurprisingly, the Hawkeyes dropped from No. 24 to outside the AP Top 25.

The blowout loss bore a striking resemblance to last year for the Hawkeyes. Iowa fielded one of the worst offenses in FBS in 2022. It averaged 17.7 points while ranking second-to-last in yards (251.6 per game). The Hawkeyes sought to fix that this offseason, bringing in Michigan transfer Cade McNamara to play quarterback.

McNamara, who’d lost his job at Michigan to J.J. McCarthy, has been mediocre at best with Iowa. In four games, he’s completed just 50.6% of his passes with four touchdowns compared to three interceptions. He was especially woeful against Penn State, going just 5 of 14 for 42 yards.

Penn State is undoubtedly elite defensively. The Nittany Lions, on average have allowed the fewest yards in the country (219.5 per game). But that doesn’t excuse Iowa’s ineptitude on offense. Aside from making wholesale changes, there doesn’t appear to be a magic fix for those issues.

Now 3-1, Iowa has seen its odds of winning the Big Ten sink from +1000 to +2000, per college football betting odds.

Tucker Out at Michigan State

The Michigan State Spartans are off to an underwhelming 2-2 start. Now, they’ll officially move forward without head coach Mel Tucker, who was fired Thursday amid allegations of sexual harassment. Tucker was 20-14 in three-plus seasons with Michigan State, highlighted by an 11-win campaign in 2021.

Despite signing a 10-year, $95-million contract, Tucker had been unable to replicate that success. The Spartans went just 5-7 last season, failing to make a bowl game for the second time in three years. Because of that, external expectations for 2023 were relatively low. The Spartans were projected for just 4.5 wins and had +10000 odds of winning the Big Ten. Those odds have since doubled to +20000.

Michigan State lost 31-9 to Maryland last Saturday and has been outscored 72-16 in two games since Tucker was suspended. The Spartans, 7-point underdogs, trailed Maryland 21-3 at halftime and finished the game with five turnovers, including a pair of interceptions by junior Noah Kim.

The Spartans clearly got off to a positive start, albeit against weak competition in Central Michigan and FCS product Richmond, but with Tucker now out, it’s difficult to forecast how they’ll react. The early indications are not encouraging, and with games remaining against Michigan (Oct. 21), Ohio State (Nov. 11) and Penn State (Nov. 24), things are likely to get a lot worse for the Spartans on the field. Remember when analyzing the odds in our Michigan State vs Iowa preview.

Handicapping the Game

This is quickly shaping up to be a lost season for Michigan State. The Spartans may win another game or two along the way, but now that Tucker’s gone, the real focus around the program is on finding his full-time replacement. Unfortunately, for a majority of the roster, that’s not an overnight job. It’ll take time.

The Spartans have struggled mightily since their 2-0 start, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. Just look at the college football schedule this weekend. No matter how bad Iowa is, Kinnick Stadium is a difficult place to play. That said, can Iowa be trusted to score? The Hawkeyes may win, but based on what they’ve done offensively, they may have difficulty mustering up enough points to beat Michigan State and cover -12.5.

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