Mississippi State Quarterback Will Rogers Among the Ailing Players in SEC Matchup
If you are looking to check out a pair of high-flying offenses, the Mississippi State-Auburn game might not be the matchup for you. The good news is somebody has to be favored in this showdown of the two lowest-scoring teams in the SEC, and the Mississippi State at Auburn odds favor the host Tigers.
There are 14 NCAAF teams in the SEC, and 12 of them have scored more than 70 points in conference play. Auburn checks in with 69 points, and that is one more than Mississippi State.
Last year’s matchup, which was won by Mississippi State 39-33, was the first NCAAF game between the teams to be decided by one score since 2015. It was the third time in the last four years that a Mississippi State-Auburn game finished over the total.
The college football odds list Auburn as the 6.5-point favorite.
Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers missed the last game with an arm injury, while defensive lineman Trevion Williams will miss the rest of the season.
For Auburn, running back Damari Alston is questionable, and defensive lineman Mosiah Nasili-Kite is out for the season.
Auburn and Mississippi State are both priced at +10000 in the odds of winning the SEC title.
Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
TV & Live Stream: SEC Network
Line: Mississippi State +205; Auburn -250
Adjustment Period Underway in Starkville
This is a rough stretch for the Mississippi State football program.
The Bulldogs are moving forward following the death of head coach Mike Leach in December, and Zach Arnett, a member of the defensive coaching staff at Mississippi State since 2020, took over as the head coach.
The “Air Raid” offense run under Leach’s watch has been replaced by a more well-balanced offense.
Mississippi State led the SEC in passing attempts in each of the last three seasons but ranks 13th, only ahead of Auburn when it comes to passing attempted per game in the SEC this NCAAF season.
With the running game slowing a bit, the Bulldogs have scored 17 points or less in three of the four SEC games this season.
The Bulldogs held Arkansas without a touchdown in a 7-3 win the last time out, as the Razorbacks finished with just 200 yards of total offense. Keep that in mind when looking at the Mississippi State at Auburn odds.
Mississippi State has covered in just one of its last six games, as well as in only two of its last seven matchups against Auburn.
Tigers Being Declawed
Auburn is in a stretch with 10 losses in its last 11 SEC games, with only four of those losses coming by seven points or less.
Just four years ago, Auburn opened the season with a 6-1 record and narrowly missed upsetting eventual national champion LSU. The final SEC game of the 2019 season was a 48-45 win over Alabama. The Tigers are 4-15 in the SEC over the last 19 conference games.
The addition of former Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne has done little to aid a struggling offense, as Auburn is 13th in the SEC in total offense and 14th in passing offense.
Auburn is one of six teams from the Power-5 conferences not to throw a touchdown pass in the first quarter this season. That could factor into the Mississippi State at Auburn odds.
The Tigers have covered in four of the last six home games.
Mississippi State squandered a 21-point lead and needed a field goal with 29 seconds left in the fourth quarter. A Jo’quavious Marks 5-yard run in overtime gave Mississippi State the 39-33 win over Auburn, opened the overtime with a missed field goal.
Mississippi State failed to cover as the 12.5-point favorite with the game going over the 50.5-point total on a touchdown pass from Rogers with 3:49 left in the fourth quarter.
Mississippi State at Auburn Betting Preview
The 43.5-point total is the lowest in a game between Auburn and Mississippi State since 2007.
Seven of the last 11 games between the college football teams finished under the total.
Since the start of the 2022 season, Mississippi State is 9-10-1 against the spread, with Auburn 7-11-1 against the college football betting lines.
Auburn has covered as a home favorite in just three of seven games during the time, with Mississippi State splitting its four games as the road underdog.
Auburn is tied for the SEC lead with nine interceptions, and the 13 takeaways are the most in the conference.
When looking at the NCAAF stats, both Auburn and Mississippi State rank 107th in points scored in the first quarter of games, so keep that in mind when looking at game props.
The Bulldogs and Tigers rank 13th and 14th in the SEC in third-down conversions, and both teams have converted less than 30% of their third downs in SEC play.
Keep an eye on the status of Rogers. Former Vanderbilt quarterback Mike Wright would run the offense if Rogers is forced to miss his second straight game. Wright was 15-for-22 for 142 passing yards in the last two games. He added 84 rushing yards. Wright had three 100-yard rushing games during his time at Vanderbilt so he offers more of a running threat at the quarterback position than Rogers.
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