Southern Methodist vs Oklahoma Odds: Showcase Opportunity for Explosive Offenses

After an underwhelming finish to 2022, the Oklahoma Sooners are off to a much better start in head coach Brent Venables’ second season. The No. 20 Sooners pounded Arkansas State 73-0 last Saturday, leaving very little to the imagination.

Now comes a slightly more difficult test in SMU, which beat Louisiana Tech 38-14 and finds itself in contention for an American Athletic Conference title. The Sooners are a 16.5-point favorite (-110) and -800 to win outright, while SMU is priced +550. Meanwhile, the projected total of 70.5 (-110) is the highest this week behind USC-Stanford (71).

What team has the betting edge? Read on as we break down the matchup in our Southern Methodist vs Oklahoma odds preview.

Sooners’ Offense Runs Wild

How explosive were the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 1? The 20th-ranked Sooners covered the projected total of 57.5 by themselves, bludgeoning Arkansas State 73-0. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel had a near-perfect day (19-of-22, 308 yards) as the Sooners, who were favored by 36, racked up 642 yards of total offense.

While it wasn’t surprising that they won, and did so quite handily, a 73-point difference is eye-opening no matter the opponent. Projected for 4.5 wins, Arkansas State is a pushover for most Power Five programs. And the Sooners put their offensive explosiveness on display, with Gabriel, the former UCF transfer, at the center of it all. Gabriel is still just +3000 to win the Heisman Trophy, leaving him comfortably behind a slew of quarterbacks, but that price could skyrocket if he keeps putting huge stat lines. Gabriel and Jackson Arnold, a five-star freshman who came on in relief, combined to complete 30-of-33 attempts for 422 yards and a trio of touchdowns.

Despite a 6-7 finish in Brent Venables’ first season, their first sub-.500 season since 1998, the Sooners remain a popular pick among oddsmakers. They did, after all, land in the preseason NCAA football rankings. They were projected for 9.5 wins (-115 Over, -105 Under) and owned the second-best odds (+330) to win the Big 12 Conference, behind Texas.

Can they win the conference in this, their final season before leaving for the SEC? It certainly appears so. The Sooners are loaded with talent on both sides. And they’ll presumably only get better with time. Much of it will depend on whether Venables can get their defense (allowed 29.6 points per game in 2022) to improve. Keep that in mind when assessing the Southern Methodist vs Oklahoma odds.

Encouraging Start for New-Look Mustangs

The SMU Mustangs started fast in Week 1, beating Louisiana Tech 38-14. The Mustangs rolled to a 31-0 halftime lead and held on late to cover the 20.5-point spread.

Preston Stone threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns, while LJ Johnson Jr. added 128 yards (9.1 yards per carry) and a score on the ground. It was very much an offensive clinic from the Mustangs, who managed to rack up 457 total yards.

The Mustangs essentially did what they were supposed to. Projected for 8.0 wins (-110 Over, -120 Under), they have high expectations. The Mustangs led the ACC in scoring last season (37.2 points per game), and although they lost wide receiver Rashee Rice, Rhett Lashlee has proven adept at adjusting on the fly. That bodes well for Stone, a promising yet unproven quarterback with just 56 career attempts prior to this season.

Much of the uncertainty surrounds SMU’s defense, which ranked near the bottom of the country in scoring in 2022. Opponents averaged 34.7 points and 446 yards per game, as the Mustangs finished 7-6 and lost to BYU in the New Mexico Bowl, 24-23. Against Louisiana Tech, SMU allowed only 269 yards and forced one turnover. If the Mustangs can keep up that performance, they’ll be prominently featured in the college football bowl projections come December.

Handicapping the Game

This is a sneaky good matchup. Oklahoma and SMU both boast elite offenses. But can they stop anyone? Week 1 didn’t provide much of an answer. Sure, Oklahoma shut-out Arkansas State, but did anyone expect that game to be close?

Saturday should be more telling, though the jury’s still out on SMU. Lashlee is a bright offensive mind, but Stone has very limited experience. His only previous appearance against a ranked opponent came last season against then-No. 21 Cincinnati, when he went just 6-of-15 for 74 yards and a touchdown in a 29-27 loss.

Oklahoma has a decided edge, especially at home. However, we’ve yet to see the Sooners against a legitimate opponent since falling apart in Venables’ first season. Because of that, it’s difficult to trust them to cover the 16.5-point college football line in the Southern Methodist vs Oklahoma odds.

For college football betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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