The Iowa Hawkeyes’ Offense Can’t Be Trusted In The Citrus Bowl
Our Citrus Bowl Spread Pick Is No Shocker
The Citrus Bowl kicks off this upcoming January 1st. We’ve got the latest updates on lines, injuries, departures and weather right here:
The Iowa Hawkeyes and Tennessee Volunteers will play the final bowl game of the year before the College Football Playoff begins in the 2023 Citrus Bowl.
Tennessee made headlines earlier this week when starting quarterback Joe Milton opted out of the Bowl game for the NFL Draft.
Milton isn’t even projected to be selected in the first round and will likely be taken in the middle rounds, if not later. He’ll join an opt-out list that includes starting running back Jaylen Wright and backup running back Jabari Small.
Therefore, Tennessee’s former five-star quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, will get the start under center, and sophomore Dylan Sampson will get most of the rushes at running back.
Sampson added seven rushing touchdowns this season but only earned 86 carries this season. Meanwhile, Iamaleava saw most of his work against Vanderbilt, completing nine of 12 passes for 66 yards. He’s got plenty of potential but doesn’t have the experience.
Tennessee will also be without six significant defensive players and a couple of offensive linemen due to the transfer portal.
On the other hand, Iowa doesn’t have many significant pieces on the portal. No player is opting out for the NFL Draft. However, Iowa lost its best player, Cooper DeJean, earlier in the season due to an injury. Other injured players include QB Cade McNamara, TE Erick All, and TE Luke Lachey, who were all lost earlier this season.
Iowa’s offense was dreadful this season, but the defense was lights out. Issues could arise for Tennessee’s offense using a freshman quarterback and a third-string running back. Playing Iowa could ultimately be the reason for Milton’s opt-out.
The Volunteers opened as 8-point favorites but have since dropped to -6 with the Milton news. Meanwhile, the total has fallen slightly from 36.5 to 35.5 with that same Milton news.
The Iowa moneyline was at +245 at open, but that line has drifted to only +205. While both teams finished in the top 25 of the CFP rankings before Bowl season, the NCAAF standings have Iowa above Tennessee. That’s why, after looking at the NCAAF odds for the 2023 Citrus Bowl, we’ll ride the Hawkeyes at +6.5 and on the moneyline at +205. The Under 35 is also appealing with Milton’s opt-out.
Now, check out the rest of the Citrus Bowl preview, originally published on December 8.
The Iowa Hawkeyes and Tennessee Volunteers will be the appetizer to the CFP Semifinal matchups on January 1.
We’d advise everyone to find their bed early (enough) on New Year’s Eve. You won’t want to miss the college football bowl game schedule on January 1. With three games before the two CFP Semifinal matchups, January 1 will be the most exciting day during the college football season.
The Iowa Hawkeyes finished the season 10-3 with a Big Ten Championship loss to Michigan. The Hawkeyes have one of the best defenses in the nation but one of the worst offenses in all of college football.
Meanwhile, they’ll take on a Tennessee team that has added 31.5 points per game.
Oddsmakers still believe Tennessee will escape by a touchdown. The Volunteers are -7.5 (down slightly from the opening number of eight) when looking at the Citrus Bowl point spread, with the total at just 35.5, down from the opening 36.5. The Under is juiced to -115.
While the total might be low, Iowa played in two games with the total in the 20’s. Those games still went Under the projected total.
While the Under looks the most appealing, we’ve also got a Citrus Bowl spread bet for this intriguing New Year’s Day matchup in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.
Citrus Bowl Information
Hawkeyes vs Volunteers 
Day/Time:
Records: Iowa (10-3)/Tennessee (8-4)
Location: Camping World Stadium
Streaming: ABC
The Final Game For OC Brian Ferentz
The Iowa Hawkeyes scored only 16.6 points per game this season. They averaged 3.34 yards on the ground and 4.02 yards per play this year.
While Iowa has the potential to win 11 games this season, it certainly wasn’t because of the offense.
Iowa lost its starting quarterback, Cade McNamara, to a season-ending injury earlier in the year. Therefore, backup Deacon Hill had to step up. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns and had only 1,096 yards passing on 233 attempts.
However, because Brian Ferentz is the son of head coach Kirk Ferentz, the Iowa athletic director had to decide to fire Brian after the season.
Kirk wasn’t going to fire his son. However, Iowa fans are restless after the Hawkeyes had one of the worst offenses in college football this season.
Therefore, Brian Ferentz will coach his final game as the offensive coordinator for Iowa in the Citrus Bowl.
Iowa Departures & Injuries
The Iowa Hawkeyes haven’t had any recent injuries. However, they’re still without many key college football players.
Cooper DeJean is out with a leg injury. He was one of the best Big Ten cornerbacks this season. He also contributed a lot in special teams as the kick returner.
Meanwhile, No. 1 tight end Erick All and No. 1 QB Cade McNamara both tore their ACLs earlier this season.
Meanwhile, Spencer Petras, who started for Iowa last season at quarterback, has announced that he’s transferring to Utah State.
Farewell, Joe Milton III
Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton had a wild career in college football. He began his career in 2018 with Michigan as a highly touted prospect with an insane arm.
He didn’t play much in 2018 or 2019 but got his chance in 2020. It didn’t go well. Milton lost the quarterback job in the middle of the season to now-Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara.
Therefore, he transferred to Tennessee in 2021. It didn’t really work out for him then, either. Eventually, Hendon Hooker got the job from Milton and became of one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in 2022.
But once Hooker went into the NFL, Milton III got his final opportunity with Tennessee. He added a career-high 2,813 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions and ran for nearly 300 yards on 78 attempts.
Milton’s career didn’t finish how he wanted. In 2018, many thought he’d be a top NFL prospect by the time he was done in college. That won’t be the case.
We’ll see if Milton III can use his massive arm to catch Iowa off guard. The offensive line must protect well as he waits for something to develop.
Tennessee Departures & Injuries
Wide receiver Dont’e Thornton has been out since mid-November with a lower-body injury. He caught 13 balls for 224 yards and was a major threat down the field for big plays. He won’t be available for this game.
Meanwhile, Tennessee’s wide receiver Bru McCoy has also missed games since the beginning of October. He had to repair a right ankle fracture. His 17 receptions and 217 yards in five games were promising until his injury.
These injuries won’t change our thoughts regarding our Citrus Bowl point spread pick.
Don’t Trust Iowa To Score
You can’t trust Iowa.
The offense had an over/under of 6.5 for a NCAAF team total against Michigan in the Big Ten Championship.
While Iowa has succeeded in the red zone, converting on over 82% of trips with at least three points, the Hawkeyes rarely find themselves in that spot.
Tennessee isn’t Michigan defensively. They’re also not Penn State or even Nebraska. But the Vols have still held opponents to 3.2 yards per rush attempt and only 5.13 yards per play.
While the run defense looks great, the pass defense between the secondary and pass rush is even better. The Hawkeyes don’t have the pieces to score consistently or at all against a quality SEC opponent. They’ve scored no more than 15 points in six of their last seven games.
On the other hand, the only area where Iowa has maybe struggled a little bit on defense is the pass rush. It’s still a great pass rush. Maybe we’re nitpicking. But Tennessee’s pass protection could hold Iowa long enough for Milton to make some big plays down the field and catch Iowa off guard.
It’s hard to do. But we still expect Tennessee’s offense, which has averaged over 31 points per game – will find a way into the endzone against Iowa. One touchdown might be enough.
The scores and odds for Iowa games are silly. They’ve hit the Under in nine of their last ten games. One game had a total as low as 25, and it still went Under.
Some of these NCAAF matchups are so fun as they match two entirely different teams. This game falls in that category.
For NCAAF betting news, NCAAF odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
