USC vs Notre Dame Free Pick: Irish Small Favorites

One of college football’s greatest rivalries resumes on Saturday, as No. 10 USC visits No. 21 Notre Dame. What looked to be a matchup of top 10 NCAAF teams was turned on its head last weekend when Louisville upset the Irish.

Notre Dame could be guilty of looking ahead to this game. But the Cardinals are a solid team. Even with the loss, Notre Dame is favored by 2.5 points and the total is 64. The USC vs Notre Dame free pick will break down both teams.

Trojans, Irish to Meet For 91st Time

Notre Dame and USC first met on the gridiron in 1926 and it’s a game both teams look forward to each season. Notre Dame holds a 48-37-5 advantage all-time. But it was the USC Trojans who won last season in Los Angeles.

Notre Dame opened as a 1.5-point favorite and the line was bet to Irish -3 before settling in at its current number (-2.5 -110) As one of the top college football teams, this is the first time USC has been an underdog this college football season. The over/under of 63 ties the second-lowest total the Trojans have played to this season.

Notre Dame was a home underdog against Ohio State earlier this season and this is the first time the Irish have played to a total higher than 55.5. There have been 30 NCAA football games this season with a total of at least 64. They’ve gone 10-19-1 in totals.

Caleb Williams Looking for Repeat Heisman

Williams was the Heisman Trophy winner in 2022 and he’s been just as impressive, if not more, so far this season. He’s completing 71.7% of his passes and has thrown for 1,822 yards and 22 touchdowns with one interception.

With Williams throwing the ball, the Trojans are averaging 355.2 passing yards per game and gaining 10.6 yards per pass attempt. Southern Cal’s running game is getting the job done, with the Trojans averaging 168.2 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry.

The USC defense hasn’t been great. But they haven’t needed to be. The college football scores show the Trojans are allowing 27 points per game to teams that average 24 points. So they’re allowing a few more points than expected. But when your offense averages 51.8 points, the defense can be a little below par and still get the job done.

The Trojans have been favored by at least 21 points in each of their last three games. USC’s largest margin of victory in those three games was 14 points. The Trojans could be a bit overvalued or just going through the motions against the weaker teams. The three straight spread losses dropped USC to 2-4 ATS in the NCAAF scores and odds. Southern Cal needs bigger margins of victory if it hopes to advance to the college football playoffs.

Irish Running Game Disappears

Those looking for a culprit for the surprising 33-20 loss to Louisville have to look no farther than the rushing game. After rushing for 176 yards against Ohio State and 159 against Duke, Notre Dame could manage just 44 yards against Louisville. You’re not going to win many games like that, let alone cover a 6.5-point spread on the road.

Notre Dame is averaging 171 rushing yards per game and gaining 5.0 yards per carry. Its opponents are allowing 4.1 yards per carry, so the Irish are typically a good running team. The Irish are averaging 266.9 passing yards per game and gaining 9.3 yards per pass.

The Notre Dame defense has been strong, holding teams to 15.9 points per game, which is 10 fewer than their opponents average during the season. The Irish have been especially tough against the pass, which is a good thing. The Notre Dame secondary will be tested in this game.

Gameplans for Each Team

Williams is too good of a quarterback for USC to change anything based on the defense they’re going up against. When you have one of the top quarterbacks in the country, you make use of him. Expect to see Williams airing it out for the USC vs Notre Dame free pick.

The Trojans’ running game compliments the passing game. When teams play soft defensively, USC is good enough to pound the ball ahead. That’s why it’s gaining 6.0 yards per carry and averaging 51.2 points per game.

Notre Dame isn’t quite good enough to beat USC strictly on the ground or through the air. The Irish will need both aspects of their offense to be working to have a shot at the victory. Naturally, the Notre Dame defense will be the deciding factor in which team gets the money in the USC vs Notre Dame free pick.

The Irish have to slow down Williams and keep pressure on him. If allowed to sit back in the pocket, Williams will pick apart any college football secondary.

Pick

Don’t read too much into Notre Dame’s loss to Louisville. The game against USC is the second-biggest regular season game Notre Dame has this season after Ohio State. The Irish were caught looking ahead and paid for it.

There’s no doubt USC is a great team and has the record to show for it. But among teams in Jeff Sagarin’s top 25, only one has played a softer NCAAF schedule than the Trojans and that’s fellow Pac-12 Conference foe Oregon. USC has been favored by at least 21 points in every game this college football season. The fact that a two-loss team is favored over the undefeated, No. 10 team in the country is a telling sign.

Southern Cal hasn’t seen a defense anywhere near the caliber of Notre Dame this season. It will be a little bit of a shock for the Trojans after playing the likes of Colorado and Stanford to see the speed of the Irish and it will be enough to hand USC its first loss of the year. Take Notre Dame -2.5 points in this game.

For NCAAF betting news, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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