Alabama vs Arkansas Prediction: Can Crimson Tide’s Cover?
Alabama Crimson Tide Go After 17th Straight Win Against Arkansas on Saturday
Quarterback Milroe Looks To Lead Alabama to Its Fifth Consecutive Victory
It wasn’t always pretty, but Alabama stands alone atop the SEC West standings after a hard-earned road win and now welcomes Arkansas to Tuscaloosa before playing three straight games against ranked opponents. Not surprisingly, the Crimson Tide is favored to win again when it comes to the Alabama vs Arkansas prediction.
Alabama has won 16 straight games versus Arkansas. However, the Razorbacks have covered in five of the last nine meetings, including three of the previous four matchups on the road.
Alabama is 6-3-1 against the college football spreads as a home favorite since the start of last season, with Arkansas covering in three of its four games as a road underdog during that stretch.
The NCAAF scores and odds list Alabama as a 19.5-point favorite. The Crimson Tide is 7-4-1 against the spread when favored by at least 15 points since the start of the 2022 season. Arkansas has covered as a double-digit underdog in just three of its last seven games.
When looking at the NCAAF standings, Arkansas is already three games behind Alabama in the SEC West.
Alabama was second only to SEC rival Georgia in the odds of winning the national title coming into the season. The NCAAF championship odds for the Crimson Tide have moved from +600 to +2000.
Alabama remained 10th in the American Football Coaches Association and 11th in the Associated Press poll after last week’s win at Texas A&M.
Arkansas at Alabama 
Day/Time:
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Line: Alabama -19.5
Total: 48.5
Streaming: ESPN
Mistakes Costing Razorbacks
Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson threw just five interceptions in 300 passing attempts a season ago and just one of those came in SEC play.
He has thrown six interceptions during the Razorbacks’ current four-game losing streak. Perhaps the only good news is that Arkansas has come away with points on 20 of 21 trips into the red zone, so Jefferson’s miscues have not been taking place in the red zone. Keep that in mind when making the Alabama vs Arkansas prediction.
The total has gone over in seven of the last nine games played by Arkansas, as well as in six of its last seven road games.
Running Game Struggling for Alabama
There was a time when Alabama could be penciled in for at least five yards every time the Crimson Tide ran the ball.
That has not been the case this season with Alabama, as the Crimson Tide ranks 11th out of 14 SEC teams with an average of 3.7 yards per rushing attempt.
Alabama finished with 23 rushing yards in last week’s win at Texas A&M, the fewest for the Crimson Tide since a 2021 game against LSU. Look for more from the running game regarding the Alabama vs Arkansas prediction.
The total has gone over in six of the last Alabama college football matchups.
Last Meeting
Alabama jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the first half before Arkansas got back within five points on a Raheim Sanders scoring run late in the third quarter.
A pair of long TD runs by Jahmyr Gibbs in the fourth quarter enabled Alabama to win 49-26 and cover as 17-point favorites.
The first of Gibbs’ scoring runs, with 12:17 left, put the game over the 61-point total. It was the second straight Arkansas-Alabama game to go over the total.
Arkansas vs Alabama Betting Preview
Alabama is 19-1 on its last 20 games at home and has won nine straight at home versus the Razorbacks.
There is a chance for three straight Arkansas-Alabama games to go over the total, which hasn’t happened since 2011-13. The total is set at 48.5. It is worth jumping all over this game finishing over that total, considering that Arkansas is ninth in the SEC in scoring defense.
Alabama is tied for the SEC lead with a 4-2 record against the college football lines this season. Arkansas has covered in three of its six games.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has quietly posted the No. 2 quarterback rating in conference play among SEC quarterbacks. It would be an even higher number if not for just four touchdown passes thrown by Milroe in three SEC games.
Is this the game when Arkansas running back Raheim Sanders makes his presence felt? The No. 2 rusher in the SEC a season ago, Sanders has been slowed by injury and is the Razorbacks’ fourth-leading rusher this season. He had just 15 yards on eight carries in last week’s loss to Ole Miss.
Arkansas leads the SEC with 11 takeaways, with Alabama tied for fourth with nine. The Crimson Tide have allowed the most sacks (26) in the SEC, with Arkansas just one spot ahead with 23 sacks given up. They also rank at the bottom of the conference in tackles for loss surrendered.
Defensive back Malachi Moore (29 tackles, one interception) and running back Emmanuel Henderson are both questionable for Alabama, with tight end Luke Hasz to win another game for Arkansas.
When looking at the college football schedule, this is the last game for Arkansas against a ranked team this season, with Alabama’s next three games coming against ranked Tennessee, LSU and Kentucky teams.
Look for Alabama to continue its winning ways against Arkansas, but trusting the Crimson Tide to cover as a 19.5-point favorite might be a bit risky.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
