Week 14 CFB: Underdogs Who Win Outright
Only 13 Dogs Won Straight-Up Last Week in 61 Games, Costing + Bettors 25.60 Units.Â
As the season progresses it’s getting harder to find the plus money needles, but we’re back with what we think is a better shot at finding success because this is championship week and we’re getting quality dogs in every NCAAF match-up. After the final week of the regular season, underdogs were just 186-550 (25.27%) -143.04 units.
The money lost was the most since 2012 when dogs cost bettors 150.55 units. It was the second-worst showing betting plus money teams since 2005. The postseason was kind to the public last year when underdogs won outright 16 times in 43 games, good for 1.97 units of profit.
That was the best year for postseason dogs since 2018 when bettors profited 7.54 units. Over the last three seasons, 7-point underdogs are 4-3 (+5.69) followed by 3.5-point dogs who are 4-5 (+0.85) units. We start our look at potential Week 14 College Football upsets starting with the MAC.
Upset #1: 
Miami-Ohio Redhawks vs Toledo Rockets (-7, 43.5) 
We’re taking a shot here with the Redhawks who are paying +250 with an outright win. We mentioned how good the record was of late when betting teams getting exactly a touchdown to win outright, but that extends back to 2016 with bettors enjoying a 14-15 overall postseason record and 15.71 units of profit based on a 1-unit play.
Miami finished the season 10-2, finishing on top of the CFB standings in the MAC’s Eastern Division. The Redhawks own the MAC’s second-ranked defense overall while allowing just 16.33 points per game. They’ll need every bit of that number when it faces the Rockets who have exploded on offense, averaging over 35 points a game.
As a head coach since 2014, Chuck Martin is 3-3 against the MAC after starting his career 4-14. Miami and James Madison are the only schools with six road wins this season, we’re more than happy to try and grab that +250 price. On to Week 14 College Football upset #2.
Upset #2: 
SMU Mustangs vs (22) Tulane Green Wave 
This is very similar to the college football regular season where underdogs getting 3-3.5 points do very well as underdog wagers, but it gets trickier when we’re talking about the postseason with teams getting 3 points are just 3-9 straight-up, but history tells us that the Mustangs are worth a shot with a 13-22 record since 2016 (-4.27 units).
The Ponies are 7-5 ATS in 2023 and have covered five of their last seven games behind the nation’s 9th-ranked offense that averages 472.6 yards per game. With +130 on the line, putting your money behind a passing game that averages 15.2 yards/completion is a solid wager.
Tulane also is no stranger to turnovers with an average of 1.3 per game. We think the second half belongs to the Mustangs, making our SMU wager one of the most attractive college football betting line options this season. On to our College Football upset #3.
Upset #3: 
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Troy Trojans 
Of all the NCAAF scores today, this may be the most exciting. Troy is a 4.5-point favorite after opening as high as 6.5. 71% of the money is coming in on the Mountaineers to go with 61% of the tickets. The public smells an upset and we do too.
NCAAF teams favored by 4.5-points are just 6-9 SU since 2015, handing underdog moneyline plays 9.66 units. App State has covered four straight games and won five straight overall and owns the nation’s 15th-ranked offense while averaging 458.2 yards per game.
This will come down to turnovers and with the Mountaineers forcing 1.7 turnovers a game, we’re taking Appalachian State +180 as our last upset special of the weekend. All the best everyone.
For NCAAF news, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
