Mustangs Hope Backup QB Leads Them to AAC Title
SMU vs Tulane Odds See Green Wave Favored
This could have been one of the most exciting conference championship games played on Saturday. But with SMU quarterback Preston Stone out for the remainder of the season, the Mustangs will be doing things a little bit differently.
SMU had a huge offensive edge over Tulane and the defenses were comparable. But it’s going to be up to backup Kevin Jennings to lead SMU to the promised land. No. 22 Tulane is 11-1 straight-up on the season. But the Green Wave aren’t really playing like an 11-1 team. The SMU vs Tulane odds have the Green Wave favored by 3.5 points at home and the total on the game is at 47.
SMU Mustangs at Tulane Green Wave 
Day/Time:
Location: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, Louisiana
Stream: ABC
Line: -3.5 Total: 47
Jennings Looked Good in Limited Time
Jennings saw some playing time in mop-up situations, which happen fairly often when you outscore the opposition 41.8-17.7. He completed 18 of 24 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns, while adding another on the ground. Not bad, but certainly nothing like the numbers Stone put up.
How the Mustangs approach this game will be interesting. SMU runs the ball pretty well, but how much of that is due to teams respecting the pass?
SMU rushed 40 times per game and threw 32 passes per game when Stone was in the lineup. It’s not out of the question for the Mustangs to look for a 45-25 pass-to-run ratio, if not a little higher. The problem there, however, is Tulane allows just 2.9 yards per rush. The Mustangs are going to have to throw the ball some.
The Mustang defense gets overshadowed by the offense. But it’s pretty solid. SMU allowed just 17.7 points per game during the season and held teams to 4.5 yards per play. The Mustangs allowed 3.3 yards per rush and 5.9 yards per pass attempt.
SMU’s two losses were to Oklahoma and TCU in the only two games where it was an underdog on the NCAAF schedule 2023. The Mustangs were 7-5 against the NCAA football odds and 6-6 in totals during the season. But the Mustangs are just 2-7 against the spread as an underdog the past three seasons, so it’s not a role they play well in.
Green Wave on 10-Game Winning Streak
Tulane fell to Ole Miss in its second game of the season. But that was the last time the Green Wave were on the losing end of the scoreboard. It was a little different for Tulane backers, however, as the Green Wave are just 5-7 against the spread and 2-10 in totals. Tulane was No. 22 in the latest CFB playoff rankings.
Tulane’s offense never put things together and averaged 27.9 points against college football teams that allowed 29.5 points on the season. Those aren’t the numbers of an 11-1 team. Tulane didn’t run that ball that well, and are a little better than average throwing the football.
The Green Wave defense is solid. Tulane is better against the rush than the pass. The Green Wave allowed 242.2 passing yards per game. But the defense kept Tulane is some games when the offense was getting the job done the way you would like.
What to Expect
The Mustangs probably don’t want to put the game in Jennings’ hands. But they probably don’t have a choice. It’s tough to run against Tulane, but teams have had some success through the air. SMU could try some shorter passes to keep the pressure off Jennings. But he’s shown he can throw the football a little bit, so the Mustangs may be in better shape than people think.
Tulane may also look to throw a little more than normal. SMU is tough against the run, but the pass defense is solid in its own right. The Green Wave will likely mix it up and stick with whatever is working best.
Who to Bet On?
The SMU vs Tulane odds are definitely taking the injury to Stone into consideration. The Mustangs are 7 points better than Tulane in the latest Sagarin college football rankings. Even with Tulane playing at home, that’s making about a 7-point adjustment for the quarterback position, which might be a little much.
The SMU vs Tulane odds are a little intriguing. Collectively, the two defenses are better than the two offenses. The Green Wave went under the total all three games in which the over/under was less than 50s. With the quarterback change for the Mustangs, have to believe the under is the way to go in this one.
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