2022 NFL MVP Odds Preview: Three Bets To Avoid

NFL betting markets are heating up as the 2022 NFL season fast approaches. Bettors are spoiled for choice at the sportsbook exchange with a plethora of futures to bet on – from team-facing markets such as Super Bowl, conference, and division odds to player-facing markets such as the NFL MVP odds.

Typically, the NFL MVP odds market is one of the most popular player-facing markets. It’s one of the most prestigious individual honors that a player can achieve in a given season.

This year, Josh Allen is tipped as the oddsmakers’ favorite to win the coveted honor. The Bills’ quarterback is followed by former MVP winners Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, as well as reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Mahomes comes in as the second-best bet at +800 on the NFL odds board while Brady and Rodgers are joint-third favorites at +1000.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you can easily appreciate the thinking behind these four favorites. They’re without question the best in the game and their player stats and team stats are proof.

After this quartet though, things get very interesting. So much so that it raises legitimate questions about some of the players shortlisted. Whether they actually merit consideration for your MVP NFL 2022 picks. 

With that question in mind, here are three players from the Top 15 faves (as highlighted on the odds board below)  that you should probably avoid in the betting.

Top 15 MVP Faves

• • Josh Allen              +700
  • Patrick Mahomes  +800
  • Aaron Rodgers    +1000
  • Tom Brady           +1000
  • Russell Wilson     +1200
  • Joe Burrow          +1200
  • Justin Hebert       +1000
  • Lamar Jackson     +1600
  • Dak Prescott        +1600
  • Kyler Murray        +2000
  • Matt Stafford       +1600
  • Derrick Henry      +4000
  • Deshaun Watson +2200
  • Jonathan Taylor   +4000
  • Cooper Kupp       +6600

Russell Wilson +1200

Russell Wilson’s trade to the Denver Broncos garnered a lot of buzz and hype. The impact for the Denver Broncos was instant, elevating the AFC West hopefuls to legitimate contenders across multiple NFL betting markets. As a result, Wilson’s NFL MVP odds improved too.

Fun fact: Wilson has never won the NFL MVP award. It’s not for a lack of effort or production because the veteran quarterback has consistently performed at a high level. Quite simply, others have simply been better.

If Wilson wasn’t able to stand out among his peers during his years with the Seattle Seahawks, what are his realistic chances of doing so on a new team? Obviously, expectations are high for the 33-year-old signal-caller. But emerging as the league’s most valuable players might be one expects too much.

Let’s not forget that the Broncos are set to debut a new coaching staff as well as a new quarterback. Under that kinds of circumstances, allowances must be made for the team to gel together, find its identity and build its chemistry.

Kyler Murray +2000

Rumors were swilling only a few months ago about the future of Kyler Murray in Arizona. There were reports of disenfranchisement within the organization. The third-year quarterback was at odds with head coach Kliff Kingsbury, teammates, and the organization in general.

At the height of turmoil, a possible career change was floated by some NFL experts as a real possibility. That Murray might fancy trying his hand at baseball rather than football.

Apparently, the brouhaha has been put to bed now. And all is well in the desert, or so they say. But is it, really? The mere hint of conflict is enough to give pause.

Another aspect is the fact that the Cardinal’s offense will be missing All-pro playmaker De’Andre Hopkins for the first six weeks of the season due to suspension. Players like Hopkins are the kind that can really make a quarterback standout.

Deshaun Watson +2200

The Deshaun Watson saga is far from over and his status with the league is up in the air. So, it’s a bit premature to be betting on the embattled quarterback to win the most valuable player right now.

Watson is under investigation by the league for potential player misconduct. This means he could face a suspension. Depending on the length of the suspension, his chances of winning this award would be severely hindered. (Whether he gets any votes from his peers is another matter entirely).  No player that has missed a significant chunk of the season has ever won this award.