Why Michael Penix Jr. Could Get Drafted in Round 1
QB's NFL Draft Odds Expect Him to Land With The Raiders
Michael Penix Jr. is already 23 years old. He played college football for six seasons after starting his collegiate career with the Indiana Hoosiers in 2018. Two of the four seasons with Indiana were ruined due to injuries. But he never threw more than 14 touchdowns or more than 1,700 yards in a single season.
With two more years of eligibility after the 2021 season, Penix left Indiana and landed with the Washington Huskies.
It changed his life forever.
As the starting quarterback of the Huskies, Penix added more than 9,000 passing yards and 47 touchdowns with just 19 interceptions in two seasons. Last year, he led college football with 4,903 passing yards and finished 6th in the nation in QBR.
His play pushed him to second place in the Heisman voting behind Jayden Daniels, who used his legs much more than Penix did.
But Penix crumbled late in the season. While Washington went undefeated into the National Championship Game, Penix struggled against mediocre teams and excelled against the best teams. His inconsistency in that regard hurt his chances of winning the Heisman Award. However, his play was good enough to get recognized by NFL scouts.
That’s ultimately what matters.
Earlier in the season, Penix was thought to be a top-five pick. He’s not that anymore. He might not even make the first round. We’ll discuss the many Michael Penix Jr. NFL Draft odds below.
Michael Penix Jr.’s Draft Position (32.5 -125/-105)
Michael Penix Jr.’s Draft Position (32.5 -125/-105)The oddsmakers have the Over 32.5 draft position for Michael Penix Jr. listed at -125 as the favorite. That means oddsmakers believe Penix Jr. won’t even land in the first round of the NFL Draft this year.
If Penix is available in the second round, many teams would likely inquire about trading up to the top of the second round to bring in Penix Jr.
But we’ll get to that in a second.
One of the areas talked about for Penix Jr. has been Denver.
The Broncos draft 12th and are in the market for a quarterback after Russell Wilson departed for Pittsburgh. However, many in-the-know analysts feel the Broncos would be reaching for Michael Penix (or Bo Nix) at the No. 12 spot in the NFL Draft.
Still, we’ve read about some coaches with the Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders who would love to have Penix Jr. at quarterback.
We could see Nix and Penix Jr. off the board before Pick 13.
But let’s say the Broncos and the other two teams decide to bring in the best talent, not the best quarterback, at picks 11-13.
If the Vikings don’t trade up for J.J. McCarthy at the No. 4 or No. 5 spots, they’ll be patient and could trade up in the first round for a guy like Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. If Nix is already taken in the first 15 spots, Penix Jr. could come off the board before the first round concludes.
Therefore, with the quarterback position being heavily looked at this season, Penix Jr. being drafted inside the Top 32 is far more likely than the oddsmakers have it listed.
Drafted In The First Round?
This prop aligns with his draft position rank. The Michael Penix Jr. NFL Draft odds have him at -115 to be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. He’s also ahead of Bo Nix, who is +130.
While we don’t see Penix beating Nix in the NFL Draft, the oddsmakers do. They’ve learned something that maybe hasn’t been leaked to the public just yet. All we’ve seen is Penix being drafted ahead of Nix.
Penix has plenty of spots to land in the first round. He’ll be considered at picks 11-13. Meanwhile, if he’s not picked in those three spots, some teams will consider trading up for Penix Jr. in the 20s for a shot at Penix Jr.
The Dade City kid showed off great arm strength throughout his time with Washington. He also made some great reads and limited turnovers, which was crucial for Washington’s success last season.
According to NFL.com, he ranked second in the 2024 NFL Combine for quarterbacks in athleticism and finished sixth in the NFL in production score. He’s also mostly a pocket passer and doesn’t have the intangibles other quarterbacks have.
If he’s getting pressured in the NFL, he might not be able to avoid sacks easily.
Still, Penix Jr. has enough spots to land in the first round. He’s got a high IQ and plenty of experience, having played right away for Indiana in 2018.
Who Will Draft Penix Jr?
There’s no heavy favorite here. However, the Las Vegas Raiders are the favorites to land Penix Jr with NFL Draft odds of +260. That would be an intriguing get, knowing the Raiders will want to be a run-heavy offense.
It would take pressure off Penix Jr. However, he never found much success with Indiana, when Indiana wanted to be run-heavy with Penix in his first four teams in college football.
After the Raiders, the Vikings are at +350. If the Vikings lose out on the top four quarterbacks in the NFL Draft, they’ll more than likely try to land Penix Jr. or Bo Nix in the first round.
After the Vikings, the Seahawks are at +450, the Broncos at +550, and the Patriots at +750. The Giants are at +950, and the Rams are at +1300 after looking at the Michael Penix Jr. NFL Draft odds.
Each team has a legitimate need for a quarterback. It’s just unclear what will happen in the first five picks of the draft. If the Giants end up with McCarthy, that would change things for the Vikings. If the Vikings add McCarthy, the Giants could consider trading up for Penix or Nix.
Since we like the Vikings to land McCarthy in the No. 4 or No. 5 spots, it’s more likely the Raiders, Seahawks, Broncos, and Giants will add Penix Jr. The Giants aren’t desperate for a quarterback. Neither are the Seahawks.
However, the Raiders and Broncos are likely the two teams who will consider drafting Penix Jr. early in the first round.
If he lands with another team, Penix Jr. likely won’t see his name in the NFL box score unless an injury happens.
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