Blues vs Leafs Preview: Snappy St. Louis Looks To Upset Toronto
Blues Have Turned Around Since the Coaching Change
Odds Favor Toronto But St. Louis is in Better Form
The St. Louis Blues have been feeling good since Drew Bannister took over as the head coach. They are 15-7-1 and have won five straight road games. Heading to Toronto, they take on the underachieving Toronto Maple Leafs. Hence, the Blues vs Leafs preview’s odds should be closer.
But the Blues are +160 underdogs despite their recent forms. St. Louis is also healthier with an edge in goal.
Blues vs Maple Leafs
Record St. Louis Blues (28-21-2) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (26-16-8)
Day/Time:
Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Streaming: BSMW
Trends Favor St. Louis But Why Not the Odds?
Let’s look at the relevant trends per this Blues vs Leafs preview. St. Louis has a better record (15-7-1) than Toronto (11-10-3) since the coaching change. It has also won six straight games in Toronto and is 9-3 overall in its last dozen meetings versus the Maple Leafs. On top of that, Toronto is just 3-6 in its last nine games. But let’s dig deeper.
St. Louis’s analytics denote a team that is getting by thanks to some hot goaltending. The Blues are giving up more possessions and scoring chances on average even with its record. But the team’s PDO is a sterling 101.3 during this span thanks to the men in front of the net.
Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer combine for a save percentage (SV%) of 92.4% on 5-on-5, which is seventh in the NHL. The duo are saving just enough shots to push St. Louis to victory. Four of their last six wins were by one goal. It continues to climb the NHL hockey standings. And even if the hot goaltending subsides, the team still has a prolific offense going.
“Pretty funny how that worked out,” forward Robert Thomas said following the team’s 7-2 win over Montreal. “It’s our second time this year getting seven, so it’s always fun and everyone’s always happy leaving the rink. “We’re really coming together on the ice as a group,” Kyrou said. “We kind of just all got a little swagger going on.”
Indeed, St. Louis has been uber-profitable for NHL picks and parlays. It is 12-6 as an underdog since and has road wins over Vancouver and Carolina. The Blues are enticing underdogs for sure.
Turbulent Totals: Fireworks in the Scotiabank Arena?
The story for Toronto’s home games is the high NHL Scores: they have typically gone ‘over’ the totals, which is at 6.5 in this game. Combine an explosive offense and flawed defending and/or goaltending. Fifteen of Toronto’s 24 home games have gone over the totals. But it has trended a bit differently lately: five of the last eight have gone under.
Slowly, Toronto is starting to clamp down defensively. The Leafs have held opponents to three goals or fewer in six of their last 12 home games with three coming by way of shutout. Ilya Samsonov, Toronto’s embattled starter, has a 4-1-0 record in his last five starts with a 92.6% SV%.
But Samsonov has also been subpar in his last two home games giving up seven goals on 60 shots. He’s still working out his porous game. And against St. Louis, he may get lit up again. But Martin Jones has not been much better behind him.
The journeyman is 1-4-1 in his last six starts with an 86% SV%. Neither of these goaltenders inspires much confidence given the Blues’ momentum. They have averaged over 3.4 goals in their last nine games. That’s partly why five of their last six road games have gone over their totals.
This Blues vs Leafs preview sees potential for a high-scoring game here with Toronto giving up three to four goals while also scoring that many. Even with St. Louis’s goaltenders playing well, their leaky defense is ripe for picking. Toronto averages the third-most scoring chances (30.3) on 5-on-5. Buckle up.
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