Capitals Vs. Rangers Preview: Cap’s Looking to Pull Off Miracle
Presidents’ Trophy Winner Heavy Favorite Against Ovechkin, Caps
Capitals vs. Rangers Preview: It’s been 30 years since the New York Rangers last won the Stanley Cup, and 10 since they’ve played for it. But the Rangers and their fans have reason to believe 2024 is the year.
New York will be the hunted since it was the Presidents’ Trophy winner for the first time in nine seasons. It will open its postseason run against a familiar foe, the Capitals, against whom it has played five postseason series in the past 15 seasons.
The Caps were the last to qualify for the 16-team postseason field but are familiar with New York coach Peter Laviolette, who was behind their bench them just last season. Plus, Capitals star Alex Ovechkin has 13 goals and 23 points in 33 career playoff games against the Rangers
Still, it’s tough to see how Washington can slow down the mighty Rangers; time will ultimately tell when we see the NHL hockey scores.
Here’s the Capitals vs. Rangers preview for the Eastern Conference First Round.
Capitals vs Rangers 
Location: Madison Square Garden
Day/Time:
Rangers Likely to Advance
Stanley Cup betting odds show New York is a heavy favorite, with DraftKings Sportsbook giving them an 81.8% implied probability based on its -450 odds, with good reason.
The Rangers entered as the NHL’s top overall seed with 114 points, and the Capitals finished with the fewest points (91) of any playoff qualifier. They scored the fifth-fewest goals (220) and had the league’s sixth-worst goal differential (-37), each of which is by far the worst of any playoff qualifier.
The Rangers are more flawed than their record indicates, and they also didn’t exactly handle the Caps during the regular season. Washington and New York split their four regular-season games, and each club scored just nine goals in those games.
But the teams’ four meetings came in a 36-day window between mid-December and mid-January, where New York goalie Igor Shesterkin was scuffling. After posting a sub-.900 save percentage in his first 32 starts, Shesterkin has shined down the stretch, boasting a 17-5-1 record, .929 save percentage, and four shutouts in his past 23 games.
Look for Low-Scoring Games
Continuing our Capitals vs. Rangers Preview: Things tighten up this time of the year, since the worst defensive NHL teams and goaltenders are all home watching on TV.
For all of Washington’s warts it actually has been OK at suppressing goals. The Caps are 16th in goals-against per game (3.07) and have allowed only eight goals in their past five games, going 4-1 in that span.
The Rangers are seventh in the sport in goals-against per game (2.76), a consequence of Shesterkin’s resurgence and a solid defense headlined by 2021 Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox. But they were tied for 19th in 5-on-5 goals (166), despite finishing seventh in the league in goals per game (3.39).
The NHL stat leaders such as Shesterkin may get the headlines, since he did win the 2022 Vezina Trophy and finished third in Hart Trophy voting that season, but Washington starter Charlie Lindgren has been good in his first full season as an NHL starter. Lindgren finished 16th in goals-saved above average (10.5) and tied for 17th in save percentage on unblocked shots (.911) per Moneypuck.
Only one of the teams’ head-to-head NHL games had six goals, which means barring a trend-setting goal fest in Game 1 the Over/Under is almost certain to be 5.5 for each game, potentially with odds as short as -125 on the under.
Given the goaltending, Washington’s offensive futility and ability to suppress goals, that under is still an excellent play in each game, despite the less-lucrative odds. If you’re same-game parlay betting, also consider an alternate total of 6 or even 6.5.
Special Teams Could Be the Difference
Officiating is always a huge topic in the NHL playoffs, as is each team’s success or lack thereof on the power play.
Washington has been a man-advantage machine historically, thanks to Ovechkin, who has the most power-play goals in NHL history (312). But it ranked 20th in the sport in man-advantage proficiency at 20.6% this season, led by Ovechkin’s team-leading 13 power-play goals.
So the Caps will want to play this series at 5-on-5, and they have done a good job of staying out of the box down the stretch. Despite ranking 19th in the NHL in PK percentage (79.0), Washington has killed seven straight penalties and hasn’t been short-handed more than twice in its past six games.
Staying out of the box will be integral, especially since the Rangers have been spotty at even strength. New York had the No. 3 power play in the sport, converting on 26.4% of its chances, led by Chris Kreider’s team-high 18 power-play goals.
Kreider was one of four Rangers with double-digit goals with the man advantage. Artemi Panarin had 44 power-play points, which would’ve ranked fourth on the Capitals in total points.
For what it’s worth, the Capitals PK went 11 for 12 (91.6) against the New York power play in their four head-to-heads this year.
That means if you’re targeting player props, look for Rangers power-play points as an option.
Capitals vs Rangers Prediction
Rangers in six, low-scoring games.
Capitals vs Rangers Betting Lines
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