Maple Leafs vs Islanders NHL Matchup: Six Goals Could Be the Minimum
High-Powered Teams Also Pit Hot Goaltending
Toronto and New York’s Totals Set “Low”
We’re expected to see more than six goals when the Toronto Maple Leafs visit the New York Islanders this Thursday. You have two potent offenses, although hot goaltending meets porous defending. As such, the Maple Leafs vs Islanders NHL matchup odds have “only” six goals posted, though the ‘over’ is juiced at -115. Toronto, the favorite, has also trended the other way in its recent totals.
Maple Leafs vs Islanders Information 
Day/Time:
Location: UBS Arena, Elmont, NY
Stream: ESPN
Toronto Rides the Hot Goaltender
Toronto Maple Leafs is notorious for high-scoring games. But that’s not nearly as true when on the road. Eleven of the NHL team’s 19 road games have gone under their totals (7-11-1). While Toronto is still averaging nearly 3.4 goals on the road (3.8 at home), it is giving up just 2.8 (3.5 at home). Better goaltending is a reason. Though is Martin Jones up to the task?
The journeyman is having a brilliant run with Toronto. He’s unbeaten on the road with a 6-0 record, a whopping 93.4% save percentage (SV%) (similar to home games), and a 1.93 goals-against average (GAA). But this is still Martin Jones, who has a career 90.7% SV% and 2.8 GAA as a visitor.
“He’s just calm, solid in there,” said defenceman Mark Giordano. “You just have confidence. He’s just an easy guy to play in front of. You feel that presence when a goalie’s really calm and reading plays, and you can tell he’s feeling it.”
If Jones can stay hot, Toronto should continue delivering on NHL picks and parlays. Toronto is 8-3 when he starts. Among these wins include road games against the Rangers and Kings. Jones shut out his former team.
Given Jones’s strong play, Toronto is slightly favored at -120 here. It’s a discounted rate given his counterpart, Ilya Sorokin. Jones is outplaying the perennial Vezina Trophy contender, however. Their combined play has led to a low total on the Maple Leafs vs Islanders NHL matchup odds.
Toronto’s totals have gone under in four of their last five games. It could be five in six after this one.
Toronto is at Home on the Road
The Maple Leafs look just as good as their Presidents’ Trophy-winning selves two seasons ago. A big chunk of their success can be owed to their performance on the road where it has a 60% point percentage and +6. Credit the renaissance of Sergei Bobrovsky in the net. He’s made this team worth adding in NHL picks and parlays.
The two-time Vezina Trophy winner is following up his hot Stanley Cup playoff run with one of his finer seasons. He has a 91.1% save percentage (SV%) with +4.1 goals saved above average. This is a vast improvement from last season, where it was 90.1% and -4.6. He’s even better on the road: 91.4% and just a 2.22 goals-against average with two shutouts.
Considering the Toronto Maple Leafs’ schedule, this team has outplayed many top teams in their building. Toronto outshot and out-possessed the likes of Boston and Toronto. However, the Maple Leafs still lost both games.
Toronto’s weakness continues to be its low shooting percentage, which is 6.7%, and is the fourth-lowest in 5-on-5 statistics on the road. As such, Toronto is just 12-10 (12-8-2) when outshooting opponents and just 5-6 (5-4-2) on the road when it does this.
This could be a key metric against the Islanders, a fifth team in shooting percentage (11.5%) and high-danger goals scored per 60 minutes (two) on 5-on-5 at home.
It might be a case where Toronto outshoots New York only to lose by a goal. This goes back to our earlier points in this Maple Leafs vs Islanders betting preview.
Islanders Lean Heavily on Goaltending
The New York Islanders are doing something their fellow New York team did the past two seasons: depend a tad too much on their elite goaltender. And it can wear down even a workhorse like Ilya Sorokin. His numbers are not entirely up to par this season, although he’s labored to push his home NHL player stats to a 91.5% SV% and 2.9 GAA.
We can’t fault Sorokin entirely here. The Islanders are giving up 34 shots at home. The team starts strong but fades down the stretch. It is +4 in the first period but -4 in the second, -3 in the third, and -2 in overtime. This will be an issue against Toronto, which gets stronger as the game progresses.
The Leafs are +2 in the first period but +8 in the third period. Toronto may be a shrewd team to back on the Maple Leafs vs Islanders NHL matchup live betting odds should New York score the first goal. The Islanders are just 7-5 (7-0-5) when scoring the first goal at home. The team has consistently blown leads.
The team will struggle in the NHL standings unless it can avoid being simply a frontrunner. And Sorokin can’t get do it alone in net. The Islanders will have to clamp down on defense, even if it means compromising its goal-scoring abilities a little.
Of course, that has been easier said than done. That’s why 15 of the Islanders’ last 20 games have gone over their totals. This includes six of their last seven at home. Having a six-goal total may be a “discount.” But for the NHL playoff picture’s sake, the Isles better play better ‘D.’
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