NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights vs Stars Preview
The defending champions have dropped four of their last seven games; Stars 12-2 last 14Â
The NHL playoff brackets are set, and the Vegas Golden Knights (45-29-8-98 points) will start their defense of the Stanley Cup against the Dallas Stars (52-21-9, 113 points) at the American Airlines Center on Monday.
The Knights finished the regular season with a 4-1 loss to the Anaheim Ducks, falling to the last wild card spot. This match-up instead of a date with the Edmonton Oilers has been set.
The Stars are looking for their first Cup since 1999 after winning the Central Division for the first time since 2016. Vegas is ranked 14th in our power rankings, while Dallas is fourth.
Oddsmakers have made the Stars a -130 favorite to win the series with a game total of 5.5 (over -172). Dallas is a -142 game-one favorite with a total of 5.5 (over -114). Puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT and can be seen on ESPN, SN360, FX, and TVAS. Let’s start our Golden Knights vs Stars preview.
Golden Knights vs Stars 
Location: American Airlines Center
Day/Time:
Streaming: ESPN, SN360, FX, and TVAS
Is This What Vegas Wanted?
Either the Vegas Golden Knights wanted to play the Dallas Stars, or we have a problem in Sin City. With third place on the line against the Anaheim Ducks, the Golden Knights were a no-show, losing 4-1 at home. VGK was a -356 favorite. The first question that comes to mind is, is this what Vegas wanted to avoid the Edmonton Oilers? The numbers don’t indicate that’s the case, with Jack Eichel (31-37-68) logging over 19 minutes of ice time, along with Jonathan Marchessault (42-27-69), who was seven seconds away from the 20-minute mark. Eichel averaged 20:31 TOI this season, Marchessault 17:54. There’s no doubt Vegas was trying to win this game and was just beaten fair and square. The Knights out-hit the Ducks 23-17, but the Ducks appeared to be the more desperate club with 30 blocked shots.
The concern from those who cover the team is, whether the Knights have a playoff switch to flip as they’ve had in years past. No matter what it looks like, the Knights may be in a better position to defend their title because of the loss. Vegas swept Dallas 3-0, but it wasn’t as easy as the 11-4 scoring discrepancy would suggest. The first two wins required overtime, and the 6-1 Knights win in early December was when Bruce Cassidy was peaking in confidence.
For bettors, this is how the Knights ended the regular season and what their past says about their future. Vegas ended the 23-24 season in the red (-3.67 units), finishing 17th overall. Where betting VGK hurts the public is on the road with an 18-23 betting record (7.67 units), but the American Airlines Center has been one of the few barns that has not proved to be a problem. Dating back to last year’s postseason, when Vegas eliminated the Stars in six, the Knights are 4-2 in Dallas (+2.46 units).
That number adds to an all-time 9-4 road record and 15-8 overall. To throw it out there, Vegas is 6-8 overall in Edmonton, dropping both games this season. The record shows the Oilers with a 15-13 advantage, 10-7 over the last three seasons. We couldn’t point out a reason to think Vegas was tanking in any way against Anaheim, but in the mind of Cassidy and GM Kelly McCrimmon, there has to be the thought that the Los Angeles Kings have a better chance against the Edmonton Oilers than their team at this point. Let the NHL conspiracy theories flow.
Golden Knights vs Stars H2H
Home Teams Smashed Bankrolls Last season
41-47 was the record of the home NHL teams in last year’s postseason, putting home teams on thin ice to begin the postseason. We’ve always said in the postseason that starting a series at home was anything but an advantage. All a road team has to do is steal one game, which the Knights have shown they can do, and they gain home-ice advantage and control of a series.
The Stars were 6-4 at home last season and have a few additions that could push them past Vegas. Dallas is deeper on the backend with the Chris Tanev signing, which could give the Stars an advantage, while Vegas deals with an injury to Alex Pietrangelo. Matt Duchene (25-40-65) has given Dallas another scorer down the middle, allowing 32-goal scorer Wyatt Johnston to settle in on the third line.
There’s that playoff depth we talk about so much. With newly signed Tomas Hertl (17-21-38) returning from injury for the Knights, they can match the Stars strength down the middle with 30-goal scorer William Karlsson dropping to the third line. Pete DeBoer’s team squeezed out a small 1.01 unit profit this season (8th), with games as a favorite providing 2.47 units (9th), but that was on the back of an impressive 48-24 (.667) record. NHL scores and statistics show Dallas averaging 3.59 goals per game (3rd), a strength the Knights can’t keep pace with, averaging just 3.21 goals per game (14th).
Oddsmakers Sitting On The Fence
There is always something about Vegas that prevents oddsmakers from putting up a series number that should feature a 1 vs. 8. In the East, the New York Rangers are a -410 favorite to beat the Washington Capitals in the first round. Dallas is a -130 favorite to win this series, which equates to a road team getting an automatic three points in football.
Our official NHL selection in this series is to back the Vegas Golden Knights (+108), who we believe will steal a game in Dallas, and then enjoy their home-ice advantage at T-Mobile Arena, where they’ve beaten the Stars in six of their last nine meetings. That does it for our Golden Knights vs Stars preview, all the best with your NHL picks and parlays.
Golden Knights vs Stars Odds
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