USA Presidential Primaries: Odds for Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary

There are just a couple of weeks left in December before 2024 arrives and, with it, the first presidential primaries of the year. The Republican Iowa Caucus on Jan. 15 will see how the pecking order between former president Donald Trump and challengers Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy shakes out. The Iowa Caucus officially kicks off the USA Presidential Primaries for the 2024 election, with the New Hampshire Primary soon after. Here’s how the odds look for each.

USA Presidential Primaries: odds to win the Iowa Republican Caucus

Donald Trump Sr. (-1200)

Polling data from FiveThirtyEight shows Trump’s lead in the state dropping slightly over the last month and a half. The former president went from a 50.5% USA Presidential Primaries peak average in early October down to 46.7% as of this week. That’s not insignificant but still a big gap to DeSantis behind him at 19.6% this week. Trump held campaign events in Iowa this week and his campaign is working to educate voters on how to caucus for him. His lead in these politics odds is large for a good reason.

Ron DeSantis (+550)

DeSantis ranks second with recent polling putting him solidly in second. Iowa governor Kim Reynolds endorsed DeSantis but that hasn’t improved his odds too much, at least in recent polls. He could be the surprise here; by Dec. 2, DeSantis had visited all of Iowa’s 99 counties. Polling numbers could be underselling his chances here. It’s a long shot but DeSantis looks more likely than others to beat Trump in Iowa.

Nikki Haley (+900)

Haley is catching DeSantis in recent polls in Iowa — she went from a 9% average in early October to 15% this week, per FiveThirtyEight — but not nearly the rate she’d need to catch Trump. Her campaign recently received an endorsement and at least $4 million in canvassing and digital ads from the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. That allows for a stronger “ground game” in Iowa but that’s a level both Trump’ and DeSantis’ campaigns have been at for a while. She’s facing an uphill battle here.

Vivek Ramaswamy (+4000), Chris Christie (+25000)

Both Ramaswamy and Christie are far behind the leading trio in Iowa polls. The former participated in a CNN town hall in Iowa Wednesday but he’s held steady at about a 5% average for the last month. Christie’s been even farther behind for most of the last two months and sits at a 3.6% average this week. Neither are realistic shots in 2024 Presidential Election Betting, especially in the Republican Iowa Caucus.

USA Presidential Primaries: odds to win the Iowa Republican Caucus without Donald Trump Sr.

Taking Trump out of the equation significantly shortens the odds for the rest of the field. DeSantis moves to -140, Haley to even, Ramaswamy to +900, and Christie to +6500.

It’s between DeSantis and Haley in this scenario. Given his recent numbers and commitment on the ground, DeSantis is still the pick here.

USA Presidential Primaries: odds to win the New Hampshire Republican Primary

Trump (-900)

Trump’s not polling as well in New Hampshire (at a 44.2% average this week) compared to his Iowa numbers. He also does not have New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu’s endorsement. Instead, that’s gone to Haley and could affect his chances. His event there this week is crucial for the first Republican primary of 2024 and he looks more at risk in this state than Iowa.

Haley (+400)

Gov. Sununu’s endorsement could prove to be a big boost for Haley’s chances in the Granite State. Gov. Sununu is one of the more popular Republican governors and, coupled with the latest endorsement from Americans for Prosperity, she’ll have more support on the ground. Given how recent Gov. Sununu’s endorsement was, polling may change a lot between now and the Jan. 23 primary. If you’re looking for an early upset in politics picks, this one is the most promising.

DeSantis (+1600)

The DeSantis campaign is focusing a lot on Iowa for good reason. Polling shows the Florida governor in fourth behind Trump, Haley, and Christie at just a 9.7% average this week. The campaign may likely put resources instead into Nevada ahead of the Feb. 8 caucus there. Do not expect DeSantis to make an impact in New Hampshire.

Christie (+1800), Ramaswamy (+6000)

Christie’s seeing much better polling numbers in New Hampshire at a 13% average this week. It’s not likely going to be enough to put him over the top, especially with Haley earning Gov. Sununu’s endorsement, but he’ll have a strong showing. The same can’t be said for Ramaswamy. He’s at a 7.9% average this week and will struggle to beat DeSantis.

The USA Presidential Primaries will heat up even more in early 2024 with both parties hosting statewide primaries and caucuses in February ahead of Super Tuesday in March. More odds will be posted for those events in the coming weeks.

For politics betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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