The 2022 Midterm Election odds are coming to a head as Americans get set to cast their vote in the House and Senate races on Tuesday, November 8, 2022.
As per the sportsbook betting exchange, the Republicans have a firm grip on the House of Representatives where they’re favored to take back control. The Republicans had a strong advantage to win a majority in the Senate (over 50 seats) until recently, but the market has moved as the Midterms fast approach. Now, it’s a much tighter race down the stretch between the Republicans and Democrats.
We look at the US politics odds board below and examine how the markets stack up with less than three weeks before voting gets underway.
US Elections 2022: Which Parties Will Control the Senate and House of Representatives?
2022 House and Senate Election Odds
Republicans Win House, Democrats Win Senate
Of the four scenarios outlined on the 2022 House and Senate Election odds board, it’s clear that a split in power is the most likely outcome, as we look at the latest political odds. In this scenario, the Republicans are tipped to win the House and the Democrats to retain the Senate – a bet that is priced at Even odds.
Parity in government is typically a welcome outcome as it serves the interests of voters from both sides of the political spectrum. Whether that does prove to be the case this fall remains to be seen.
Republicans Win House & Senate
A GOP win in both Houses isn’t too far behind at +180 as per the political betting markets. As things currently stand, the Senate is split evenly between the GOP and Democrats, each holding 50 seats. The Democrats have the “power” thanks to a tiebreak vote, which is in the hands of the vice president Kamala Harris.
Technically, the Republicans need to win one additional seat to claim a majority. That’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility, especially in the current domestic economic and political climate.
Traditionally, midterm elections are a seen to be a referendum on the party in the White House. So, right from the start, the 2022 Midterm Election odds were cornered with the GOP as supported by long running historical trends.
President Joe Biden’s popularity has been on a steady decline, since he rose to power in 2020 riding a phenomenal Blue wave that was as much a vote for change as it was a vote rejecting Donald Trump and everything he represented
Two years on, the cheerful bonhomie surrounding the septuagenarian Joe Biden is fading. Granted he has had to contend with an extraordinary and unprecedented set of crises that arguably would challenge any government in power at the time. However, that is small consolation to voters, those who are having to deal with the consequences of an unprecedented cost of living crisis, rising inflation and looming recession. And if that wasn’t enough, a slew of international security crises’ are heightening tensions across the globe and threatening democracy as we know it.
Democrats Win House, Democrats Win Senate
Concluding Our 2022 Midterm Election Odds Preview: Given the growing disenchantment within the country, it’s no surprise to see the Democrats tipped at slightly larger odds of +350 to win both Houses. However, it must be said that the odds aren’t so large to indicate that such a result wasn’t possible.
The GOP’s odds have shifted in recent weeks due to events that have cast former president Donald Trump into further disrepute. The FBI’s raid of Mar-A-Lago, the call for Trump to answer questions about the Jan. 6 uprising in the nation’s capital are just some of the latest events that have had an impact on the Republicans chances this fall.
Democrats Win House, Republicans Win Senate
Finally, the least likely outcome is a Democratic House of Representatives and a Republican Senate when all is said and done. Such an outcome is priced at +1200.
As mentioned above, the midterms are a barometer of American politics. Typically, the party out of power makes gains in the Congress, especially in the House of Representatives. As the Democrats are in the White House, trends point to a Republican House. Thus, the Democrats winning the House and not the Senate is the longshot bet.