There’s less than a year to go until the 2024 Presidential Election. A crowded group of Republican candidates have been debating on national television with one exception: Former President Donald Trump. He’s yet to appear in any of the debates but leads most polls to be the Republican candidate, even amid multiple legal cases against him. Each of those cases could impact his campaign for a second term. Here’s a look at the odds for different outcomes in 2023 Trump’s trials.
Handling of classified documents case
The former president faces 37 counts in a federal court in Florida due to his handling of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate in South Florida. Thirty-one of those counts are willful retention of national defense information. He’s also facing one count of each of the following:
- False statements and representations
- Scheme to conceal
- Concealing a document in a federal investigation
- Corruptly concealing a document or record
- Withholding a document or record
- Conspiracy to obstruct justice
To bet on politics, in this case, the odds are specifically for the number of guilty counts. Under 10 counts is +150, between 10-33 counts is +400, and 34+ counts is -130.
It’s hard to see the willful retention of national defense information charges getting dropped. It’s pretty cut and dry; he had documents related to U.S. nuclear capability, foreign nuclear capabilities, potential U.S. vulnerabilities to attacks, and more. From there, it’s down to the other counts and how many will get dropped. At least three are likely to hold, and choosing 34+ counts looks like the best bet.
In addition to the specific number of counts, there are very short odds of whether or not Trump will be found guilty of one or more of the classified documents charges. Yes (-350) is the much more likely outcome than no (+225), and the odds reflect that. The trial is set to start on May 20, 2024.
Georgia election racketeering case
This one of the former president’s trials involves one count of violating Georgia’s RICO (racketeer-influenced and corrupt organizations) statute. Trump is facing 13 charges in this case:
- RICO (one)
- Solicitation of a public officer (three, including the General Assembly and Secretary of State)
- False statements (four, including two conspiracy)
- Impersonating a public officer (one, conspiracy)
- Forgery (2, conspiracy)
- Filing false documents (two, one conspiracy)
The guilty counts in betting odds politics for this case are similar to the classified documents case. They’re broken down into 0-2 counts (+300), 3-10 counts (+225), and 11-13 counts (-165). There’s also whether or not he’ll be found guilty of one or more counts in this case, with yes at -300 and no at +200.
It’d be a shock if he was not found guilty in this case. The specific counts are more interesting. All you’d need to get a much better payout is for at least three charges to be dropped. Ten or more counts being dropped is very unlikely. The conspiracy charges are likely to hold at the very least so then it’s down to whether or not three charges get dropped. We doubt they will so 11-13 counts is the bet here. The trial does not yet have a start date.
Federal prosecution for attempting to overturn election
The trial for this case is set to begin on March 4, 2024, the earliest of the former president’s trials. The result may come in time to affect 2024 Presidential Election Betting. This case charges Trump with four counts:
- Conspiring to defraud the U.S.
- Conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding
- Conspiracy against rights
- Obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding
Odds for this one are whether or not Trump will be found guilty of one or more of these charges. Considering three of these counts are conspiracy, being found guilty of at least one of them is very likely. Yes (-260) is a much better bet than no (+170).
New York Business Records Trial
This case involves 34 felony charges of falsifying business records in tandem with an alleged catch-and-kill operation around hush-money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. This was the earliest indictment of these cases, making Trump the first former U.S. president criminally charged. The trial is set to start on March 25, 2024.
There are two sets of odds for this case. The first is the number of guilty counts: under five is +200, 5-24 is +250, and 25+ is -140. It would take a lot for more than a quarter of the charges to be dropped in this case, so 25+ seems most likely for this one as well.
The second set of odds is whether Trump will be found guilty of one or more felonies in New York. Yes (-190) again seems much more likely than no (+140) and would not disqualify his candidacy in 2024.
One overarching set of odds in all of these cases is whether or not Trump will cut a plea deal with either state or federal prosecutors before the end of 2023. With just six weeks left in the year, no (-240) is the choice here over yes (+160). Instead, they’ll all likely play out in the heart of caucus and primary season.