Serie A: Milan vs Napoli Betting Preview
Unbeaten Starts on the Line
Serie A Match of the Week
Napoli, currently in the first place, take on defending champions AC Milan in a must-see Serie A match on Sunday. Both teams are unbeaten heading into Sunday, with four wins and two draws each in Serie A. Napoli is currently above Milan only on goal difference. The Rossoneri will try to overtake Napoli but it doesn’t figure to be easy, especially with Rafael Leao out. We’ll review the odds and other factors affecting the match in this AC Milan vs. Napoli betting preview.
- Serie A – AC Milan vs. Napoli Game Info:
- Location: Stadio San Siro, Milan, Italy
- Date & Time:
- TV: Paramount+
Head-to-Head
One of the better AC Milan vs. Napoli betting tips recently has been picking the road team ATS. The road team is unbeaten in the last five meetings between these two teams. Last season, the road team picked up 1-0 wins in each match. AC Milan’s win over Napoli in March was particularly consequential in the title race. Regardless, six of the last ten Serie A matches between AC Milan and Napoli have finished with two or fewer goals.
Milan’s Serie A Unbeaten Run
- Last Match: 2-1 W at Sampdoria
- Injuries and Suspensions: M Alessandro Florenzi (Out), M Rade Krunic (Out), F Ante Rebic (Day-to-Day), F Divock Origi (Day-to-Day), F Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Out), F Rafael Leao (Suspension)
As he often does, Olivier Giroud scored the winning goal last weekend. Giroud’s penalty fired AC Milan to a 2-1 road win over Sampdoria despite Rafael Leao picking up two yellow cards and getting sent off. With Leao out on Sunday, Giroud will rely on even more than he was before. He also scored in AC Milan’s 3-1 win over Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League on Wednesday. Other strikers, like Divock Origi, Ante Rebic, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, are currently nursing injuries.
Our AC Milan vs. Napoli betting preview should note that Milan is unbeaten in their last 22 Serie A matches. Their impressive streak dates back to January but this stands out as one of their more difficult matches in recent memory. The defense has been a slight concern in recent weeks. After conceding just three goals through four Serie A matches, Milan has allowed three in their last two.
Simon Kjaer is fully recovered from an ACL injury and has made a couple of starts already. So, having him, along with Pierre Kalulu and Fikayo Tomori makes for an interesting center-back competition.
Napoli’s New Boys Coming up Big
- Last Serie A Match: 1-0 W vs. Spezia
- Injuries and Suspensions: M Diego Demme (Out), F Hirving Lozano (Day-to-Day), F Victor Osimhen (Out)
Napoli is also on an unbeaten run in Serie A, but it’s not quite as long as AC Milan’s. The Partenopei are unbeaten in their last 10 Serie A matches, dating back to last season. Heading into 2022-23 there were serious questions surrounding Napoli’s ability to compete. However, they’ve been excellent and silenced the doubters so far.
At first place in the Serie A standings through six matches, Napoli looks like one of the teams to beat. Last week was a week of firsts for some of Napoli’s new players. Giovanni Simeone scored on his Champions League debut in an incredible 4-1 win vs. Liverpool. Giacomo Raspadori scored a timely first Napoli goal on Saturday, starting in place of the injured Victor Osimhen. Raspadori’s goal was the only one of the match in the 1-0 win vs. Spezia.
Along with the new strikers, Kvicha Kvaratskhelia has torched fullbacks on the wing. Tanguy Ndombele got on the scoresheet as Napoli beat Rangers 3-0 on Wednesday in the Champions League. Min Jae Kim has also been an integral part of the league’s second-best defense so far. Only Atalanta have conceded fewer goals than Napoli this season. The Partenopei have allowed just four in six matches and have kept three shutouts.
Odds & Preview
Our AC Milan vs. Napoli betting preview notes that Napoli has scored in five of their last six matches vs. AC Milan. Still, the visitors are +230 underdogs come Sunday. A draw, which has been relatively frequent in this fixture recently, shows +255 odds. Scudetto holders AC Milan are +120 favorites and they picked up their first UCL home win since 2013 on Wednesday. However, Napoli showed -140 odds to win or draw the match.
Striker depth could end up being a problem for the Rossoneri and Leao’s absence is a big one. It’s possible we see Serginio Dest or Aster Vranckx, Milan’s new loan players play a part here. Napoli came into the season without much depth but they’ve addressed their needs well in the transfer market. They’ve certainly reaped the benefits. Napoli has the best goal difference in the Champions League through two matches.
Neither team is expected to score multiple goals in this match, as per usual in this fixture. AC Milan under 1½ is priced at -145 odds and Napoli under 1½ shows -230 odds. As a result, under 2½ total goals is implied to be more likely than the under, sitting at -115. Both defenses are very solid and rest assured that neither side will want their unbeaten run to end.
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