Could Swiatek and Sabalenka Clash Again in Italian Open Final?

The 2024 Internazionali BNL d'Italia Odds Has Defending Champion Rybakina Among the Contenders

Gauff Looks To Put Disappointing Showing In Madrid Behind Her in Rome

Italian Open organizers are crossing their fingers for their WTA 1000 event to play out like the recently completed tournament in Madrid when Iga Swiatek saved three match points to outlast Aryna Sabalenka in the final. Swiatek and Sabalenka lead the way in the 2024 Internazionali BNL d’Italia odds.

No. 5 Jessica Pegula and No. 18 Karolina Muchova are the only players in the top 20 in the WTA rankings entered into this tournament so the possibility exists of another Swiatek-Sabalenka showdown in the final.

Elena Rybakina is the defending champion while Swiatek has won two of the last three times in Rome. Many of the tennis predictions could have them meeting in the semifinals.

This is another one of the prominent tune-up tournaments for the French Open. When looking at the tennis betting odds, Swiatek leads the French Open outrights at -110 followed by Sabalenka (+550), Rybakina (+700), Coco Gauff (+900), and Mirra Andreeva (+1600).

The main draw in Rome begins on Tuesday with the women’s singles final set for May 19.

The qualifying draw is currently underway with American Bernarda Pena, the No. 4 seed, among those already through to the second round of qualifying.

Italian Open

Location: Rome, Italy
Day/Time:
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Prize Money: €7,877,020

Swiatek Looks To Return to the Top

Swiatek’s bid for a third-round title in Rome ended in the quarterfinals when she retired in the third set of the quarterfinals against eventual champion Elena Rybakina.

Swiatek had lost a total of nine games in her first three matches to reach the quarterfinals.
Swiatek was seeded 15th when she won the title in 2021 while dropping just one set. She barely broke a set in a 6-0, 6-0 win over Karolina Pliskova in the 2021 singles final.

In 2022, Swiatek became the first player to win the Italian Open women’s singles title without dropping a set since Serena Williams in 2016. Bianca Andreescu did push Swiatek to a first-set tiebreaker in the quarterfinals. Swiatek topped Ons Jabeur 6-2, 6-2 in the championship match.

She is among the players to beat according to the 2024 Internazionali BNL d’Italia odds.

The first seeded player that Swiatek could face is American Sloane Stephens. Marketa Vondrousova could be a possible quarterfinal opponent with Madison Keys, Veronika Kudermetova, Beatriz Haddad Maia, Ekaterina Alexandrova, and Sorana Cirstea other seeded players in that quarter of the draw. Former World No. 1 Angelique Kerber and former US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez are also players who could make some noise.

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Mixed Results for Sabalenka

Sabalenka has lost her opening match in the main draw in three of her previous five trips to Rome.
Her best showing came in 2022 when she eliminated Americans Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova to reach the semifinals. She won just three games in a loss to Swiatek.

In the 2023 tournament, Sabalenka fell to Sofia Kenin after receiving a first-round bye. It was her first loss to a player outside the top 100 in Rome. Keep that in mind when looking at the 2024 Internazionali BNL d’Italia odds.
Five of Sabalenka’s six matches in Madrid went three sets so it remains to be seen if fatigue will be an issue for the No. 2 seed.

Sabalenka could draw Dayana Yastremska in the third round with Elina Svitolina a potential opponent in the Round of 16 although American Amanda Anisimova, veteran Sara Errani, and Anna Kalinskaya can’t be overlooked.

The top half of that quarter features Jelena Ostapenko, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Katie Boulter, and American Sofia Kenin as potential threats to No. 8 seed Ons Jabeur.

Gauff Leads the U.S. Hopes

During the Open era, American-born women won 10 of the first 14 tennis tournaments in Rome.

However, beginning in 1983 Venus Williams and her sister Serena are the only American-born players to win the tournament.

Amanda Anisimova reached the quarterfinals in 2022. The last American to reach the semifinals is Coco Gauff in 2021 before she lost a hard-fought match to Swiatek.

Gauff will be the No. 3 seed as she looks to rebound from a disappointing result in Madrid when fellow American Madison Keys upset Gauff in the fourth round.

Gauff may need to contend with the dangerous Barbora Krejcikova in the Round of 32. Liudmila Samsonova, American Emma Navarro, Paula Badosa, and rising star Mirra Andreeva are among the potential fourth-round foes.

Qinwen Zheng and Daria Kasatkina are the top seeds in the bottom portion of that bracket. Former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka, Marta Kostyuk, Linda Noskova, and American Shelby Rogers would love to spoil a potential Zheng-Kasatkina showdown.

The winner of this quarter could meet Sabalenka in the semifinals.

Rybakina Looks To Double Her Pleasure

Rybakina is hoping to join some select company as Gabriela Sabatini, Conchita Martinez, Amelie Mauresmo, Jelena Jankovic, Maria Sharapova, Serena Williams, Elina Svitolina, and Swiatek are the only players during the Open era to win back-to-back women’s singles titles in Rome.

Rybakina’s bid to make it to a third consecutive singles final ended with a loss in a third-set tiebreaker to Sabalenka in the semifinals in Madrid after making it to the finals in Miami and winning the title in Stuttgart. That championship run was highlighted by a win over Swiatek in the semifinals.

Rybakina didn’t get the easiest of draws in her bid to repeat.

Danielle Collins or Caroline Garcia could be waiting in the Round of 16.

No. 5 seed Maria Sakkari is the favorite to meet Rybakina in the quarterfinals. However, Victoria Azarenka, Jasmine Paolini and Anhelina Kalinina might have something to say about that.

This quarter also features perhaps the most compelling of the first-round matches with Donna Vekic clashing with Lesia Tsurenko with the winner advancing to meet Kalinina.

If Rybakina makes her way through those matches, there could be a potential semifinal showdown with Swiatek.

For tennis news, Italian Open odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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