Swiatek and Sabalenka On a Collision Course

Sabalenka, a Favorite According to the WTA Mutua Madrid Open Odds

Nine of the Top 10 Players Feature in a Star-Studded Event in Madrid

Aryna Sabalenka looks to become the first back-to-back champion in Madrid since Simona Halep in 2016 and 2017 as she is one of the front-runners according to the WTA Mutua Madrid Open odds. Jessica Pegula is the only top-10 player in the rankings not in the field in what could be one of the most competitive ends on the clay-court portion of the WTA schedule.

The Belarusian can join Petra Kvitova as the only three-time champion in the WTA event in Madrid with Ons Jabeur the only other former champion in the field.

This is another “tune-up” event for the next Grand Slam event: the Roland Garros. Iga Swiatek is priced at +100 in the French Open outrights followed by Sabalenka at +460, and Coco Gauff at +850.

The main draw in Madrid starts on Tuesday with the singles final set for May 5. The next WTA 1000 event on the WTA schedule is the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome which starts on May 7.

Swiatek Looks to Seal the Deal

Iga Swiatek was the top seed in last year’s tournament and lost just one set in her first five matches before falling in three sets to Sabalenka in the 2023 singles final.

The WTA Mutua Madrid Open odds have Swiatek as one of the favorites in the event as the No. 1 seed yet again. The first-seeded player that Swiatek could see is No. 27 Sorana Cirstea in the third round. No. 5 seed Maria Sakkari joins Beatriz Haddad Maia, Elina Svitolina, Victoria Azarenka, Elise Mertens, and American Emma Navarro join former World No. 1 Carolina Wozniacki as potential opponents before the quarterfinals for Swiatek.

Swiatek recently became the ninth WTA player to be ranked No. 1 for 100 weeks and with a 2700-point lead on No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka, it could be a while before she falls from the top spot.

Sabalenka Eyeing a Repeat

When looking at the scores, the last time that Sabalenka was the defending champion in Madrid, she fell in the first round to Amanda Anisimova. She is hoping for a longer run in this year’s event.

Don’t look for a repeat when Sabalenka plays either Magda Linette or Elisabetta Cocciaretto in her first match. Katie Boulter is the first-seeded player that Sabalenka could see in the draw.

It is not the easiest of draws for Sabalenka with reigning Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousouva a potential quarterfinal opponent. Red-hot American Danielle Collins or Barbora Krejcikova could be waiting in the fourth round with Jasmine Paolini and Carolina Garcia among potential opponents for Vondrousova.

Talented teen Mirra Andreeva is another player to keep an eye on in this portion of the draw.

Gauff Look to End the U.S. Title Drought in Madrid

No American-born player has won the WTA title in Madrid since Serena Williams won back-to-back titles in 2012 and 2013. Keep that in mind when looking at the WTA Mutua Madrid Open odds.

Jessica Pegula, the 2022 finalist, was the first American to reach the Madrid final since Williams in 2013.
Coco Gauff will look to change that. The No. 3 seed will face either Brenda Fruhvirtova or Arantxa Rus in her first match with a possible third-round match against Dayana Yastremska.

Since winning in Auckland and then reaching the Australian Open semifinals, Gauff is just 9-5 with four of the losses coming to players ranked outside the top 20.

Former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka, Liudmila Samsonova, and American Madison Keys are other players to keep an eye on.

If Gauff reaches the quarterfinals, Ons Jabeur, Jelena Ostapenko, or Paula Badosa could be waiting.

Rybakina Eyeing Another Title

No. 4 seed followed up an upset against Swiatek by rolling past unseeded Maria Kostyuk to win the clay-court event in Stuttgart.

She has made it to the finals in three of her last four tournaments after winning the Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, falling to Swiatek in the Qatar final, and losing to Collins in the Miami Open final. She heads into this tournament with a 26-4 record in 2024 and that includes a 5-1 mark against top-10 players.

Kostyuk and Rybakina could meet again in the third round while a potential matchup with Ekaterina Alexandrova waiting in the next round. In the quarterfinals, perhaps Daria Kasatkina or Qinwen Zheng could stand between Rybakina and a trip to the semifinals.

A Look At the Schedule

The top 32 seeded players receive byes into the second round in Madrid.

When looking at first-round matches, former World No. 1s Caroline Wozniacki and Naomi Osaka each draw qualifiers in their first matches as does the always dangerous Paula Badosa. Emma Raducano and Karolina Pliskova will square off in the first round while Mirra Andreeva and Taylor Townsend is another first-round showdown worth monitoring.

If the seeds hold true, the quarterfinals would be Swiatek-Sakkari, Sabalenka-Vondrousova, Gauff-Jabeur, and Rybakina-Zheng. Sabalenka and Rybakina could meet in one semifinal with Gauff and Swiatek clashing in the other semifinal.

In last year’s tournament, only one unseeded player made it through to the quarterfinals. However, just four top-10 players were among the final eight. Keep that in mind when looking at the betting options in Madrid.

Camila Osorio, the top seed in the qualifying bracket, was eliminated in her first match. Could that be a sign of things to come?

For Tennis betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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