Djokovic, Nadal Lead the Big Names In Italian Open
Six-time Champ Novak Djokovic Leads the 2024 Internazionali BNL d'Italia Odds
Is 10-time Italian Open Champion Rafael Nadal Ready for a Deep Run
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are in the same tournament for the first time since the 2023 Australian Open. However, the absence of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will impact the 2024 Internazionali BNL d’Italia odds. Djokovic has the shortest odds to win at Rome at +200. Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev are distant runner-ups at 11/1 while Nadal is at 14/1.
Nadal and Djokovic have combined to win 16 men’s singles titles in Rome. It would be quite the story if they meet for the 60th time, but the first since the 2022 French Open quarterfinals.
When Daniil Medvedev topped Holger Rune in the 2023 final, it was the first time since 2004 that a men’s championship match didn’t have either Djokovic or Nadal vying for the title.
This is one of the high-profile events of the clay-court season with an eye toward the French Open, the next Grand Slam event on the ATP schedule. Djokovic is second at +250 in the French Open outrights with Nadal fourth at +600.
The main draw begins on Wednesday with the championship match on May 19 in the final ATP 1000 event before the French Open gets underway.
Here’s a quick look at the four quarters in what could be an interesting edition of the Italian Open.
Italian Open
Location: Rome, Italy
Day/Time: Prize Money: €7,877,020
Djokovic Eyeing Seventh Time in Rome
After reaching the final in Rome in 10 of the previous 12 years. Djokovic stumbled in the 2023 quarterfinals against Holger Rune. It was the first time since 2018 that Djokovic didn’t make it to the championship match when he lost to eventual champion Nadal in the semifinals.
Nadal and Rune are both in the bottom half of the bracket so neither of them could meet Djokovic until the final.
Alejandro Tabilo is the first seed that Djokovic could face in Rome. Francisco Cerundolo and Karen Khachanov are seeded players who could start between Djokovic and an 18th straight quarterfinal appearance at the Italian Open. It is still hard to overlook Djokovic when it comes to the 2024 Internazionali BNL d’Italia odds.
Casper Ruud, American Ben Shelton, Adrian Mannarino, and Jordan Thompson are the top threats in the bottom half of that portion of the draw.
Ruud recently upset Djokovic at the ATP 1000 event in Monte Carlo. Djokovic hasn’t played since the loss to Ruud in Monte Carlo. He is just 4-2 since being knocked out in the Australian Open semifinals by Sinner. Djokovic hasn’t had issues in the past hitting the court running after periods of inactivity and without Alcaraz or Sinner around to push him, he is a solid choice in the tennis picks to make another deep run in Rome.
Can Rafa Make Some Noise?
When looking at the 2024 Internazionali BNL d’Italia odds, Daniil Medvedev is one of the favorites.
Americans Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe could be potential fourth-round opponents for Medvedev.
It is the other half of this quarter that is even more intriguing.
As if dealing with 2023 Italian Open finalist Holger Rune isn’t enough to contend with for No. 7 seed Hubert Hurkacz, Argentina’s Sebastian Baez and Tomas Martin Etcheverry can be dangerous on clay.
Speaking of players who thrive on clay, Hurkacz could meet up with the best clay-court player in men’s tennis history if Rafael Nadal gets by a qualifier in the first round. That could create significantly more interest from those who bet on tennis than a normal second-round match in Rome.
Can Americans Sidetrack Zverev?
Among the players that No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev could see in the quarterfinals are seeded American players Taylor Fritz and Sebastian Korda. The compatriots could meet in the third round with a potential fourth-round matchup with Grigor Dimitrov.
History is not on the side of Fritz, Korda, or the other Americans in the field as the last U.S.-born player to reach the finals in Rome was 2002 champion Andre Agassi.
Alexander Bublik, Tallon Griekspoor, and Mariano Navone are seeded players that Zverev might see before the quarterfinals.
Bublik has won three of the four previous meetings with Zverev so things could be interesting if Bublik and Zverev meet in the fourth round.
Zverev had won seven matches in a row against Dimitrov but Dimitrov won the most recent meeting in the Miami Open semifinals.
A Tough Draw for Rublev
It could be argued that No. 4 seed Andrey Rublev could have one of the most challenging paths to the quarterfinals.
Ugo Humbert, Nicolas Jarry, and Arthur Fils are players to watch.
Matteo Berrettini, a former top-10 player, might be a dangerous floater. However, he lost both of his matches at ATP 1000 events this year.
Waiting in the quarterfinals could be Tsitsipas with Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Cameron Norrie also seeded in the top half of that quarter of the draw. A second-round matchup against either Jan-Lennard Struff or Pedro Cachin might be challenging for Tsitispas.
Struff beat Tsitsipas 6-3 in the third set in the Madrid quarterfinals in 2023. It was the first meeting between the two since 2020. Tsitsipas had no trouble with Cachin in the 2023 Barcelona event in the only previous matchup between the two players.
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