Rodriguez vs Edwards Boxing Picks: A Sunny Outcome For Underdog Bettors
The Boxing Odds a Tad Too Wide, Back the Dog
Boxing Lines Have Rodriguez Moderately Favored
A flyweight unification bout could be the best boxing fight of the year in what has been a marquee 2023. That’s because Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez and Sunny Edwards are arguably the best in the 112-pound division. Whoever wins the bout will announce themselves as one of the 10 best pound-for-pound boxers. And while the odds lean towards the American, the savvy Rodriguez vs Edwards boxing pick is to go with the underdog.
🥊 Rodriguez vs Edwards 🥊
Day/Time:
Matchup: Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez (20-0-0, 4 KOs) vs Sunny Edwards (18-0-0, 11 KOs)
Location: Diamond Arena, Glendale, AZ
Streaming: DAZN
Bettors Lean Heavily on Rodriguez
When the boxing odds opened, Rodriguez was at -140, and Edwards was at +105. Thus, early bettors steamed Rodriguez’s quickly. He’s now dropped down to -230. And given the line movement, backers seem to believe Rodriguez is a level above Edwards. Both are unbeaten champions, and this fight could be a lot closer than the one-way action indicates.
As such, the value could be on Edwards now at +190. This fight is also heavily expected to go over 10.5 rounds (-900) and to go to a decision (-600). Knowing how arbitrary boxing judging can be, getting a near 2-1 payout in what is close to a 50/50 fight sounds like a good deal.
Can Edwards Win Over the Judges?
Skill for skill, Edwards is the better boxer here. He has better footwork, tactics, and overall defense. However, he lacks two things that make him the underdog: power and aggression. These are the two “sexy” things that win boxers’ fights. Judges typically lean toward the boxer, pushing the pace even if they are getting outboxed.
Still, there are exceptions to this rule. Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Shakur Stevenson are two of the best examples. They are not the most aggressive boxers, nor are they knockout artists. But they outbox their opponents to the point that the judges have no way of scoring against them, even if the crowd hates it.
That can be Edwards right here. No one in the flyweight division has made him look vulnerable or put him in a position to be. And when we’re getting these kinds of odds on him, the Rodriguez vs Edwards boxing pick is a no-brainer. This can be his coming out party as he can outclass Rodriguez and expose him for being a more limited boxer than he is.
Rodriguez is Special, But…
Many see Rodriguez as the next big thing in these small-weight divisions. And he’s usually passed with flying colors. He stepped up in weight divisions and took out both Carlos Cuadras and Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, two of the unofficial “Four Kings” of the super flyweights. Then he went back down and became champ. But he belongs up a weight division.
Since he’s only 23, Rodriguez can afford to dedicate some of his camp to cutting weight. But that could be to his detriment. His most impressive wins have come in the 116-pound division. He’s looked less dominant in his last two fights as a -1600 and -2500 favorite. And he’s boxing a true flyweight in Edwards.
Edwards will have the power, reach, and aggression edge here. But we’re betting he’ll have a hard time getting a bead on his opponent. Rodriguez looked much better against flat-footed and aging legends. When he’s taking on a sprightly uber-defensive opponent, he may look less than the favorite he’s supposed to be. Hence, we can’t bet on him in this scheduled boxing match.
And the Pick is…
Rodriguez is favored because he’s the more powerful and aggressive boxer. He’s also fighting in America, which is not only his home but a place where they score bouts in favor of the aggressor.
But we’re backing Edwards, who is just more tactical and technical. He is difficult to hit and has proven he can hang with power punchers. It may be a difference of one or two rounds. It may even be a split decision. When that happens, our Rodriguez vs Edwards boxing pick is on the dog. Bet: Sunny Edwards (+190).
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