Argentina vs Mexico Betting Preview & Recap

Familiar Foes Face Off

⚽Argentina vs Mexico: Game Recap⚽

Results: Argentina 2-0 Mexico

Argentina had never lost their first two matches at a World Cup, and they’d never lost to Mexico at a World Cup. They continued those two streaks as Messi put on a MOTM performance to lead Argentina in a 2-0 win over Mexico.

Messi and his teammates headed into the game knowing they could not lose after Saudi Arabia served up a seismic shock in the sides’ Group C opener and an attritional affair at the Lusail Stadium only heightened Argentina’s nerves.

The best chance came in the 45th minute with Alexis Vegas’ free kick, on which Emi Martínez was forced to make a save. For Argentina, it was a first half in which they showed no signs of breaking down the Mexican midfield, much less an out-of-possession El Tri back five.

The Mexico attack picked up where it left off after their goalless draw against Poland, creating next to nothing in the opening 45 minutes, but Argentina was even worse. The best chance came in the 45th minute with Alexis Vegas’ free kick, on which Emi Martínez was forced to make a save. For Argentina, it was a first half in which they showed no signs of breaking down the Mexican midfield, much less an out-of-possession El Tri back five.

But Messi finally made the breakthrough in the 64th minute when he controlled Angel di Maria’s pass and rifled past Guillermo Ochoa to send Argentina’s fans wild.

Enzo Fernandez found the top corner with a brilliant goal to seal three precious points, and Argentina will advance to the last 16 if they beat Poland in their final group game.

For Mexico, it’s just one win in the last 19 meetings, with Argentina losing in all four World Cup meetings. Their streak of reaching the round of 16 is now in serious jeopardy, with only a 26.5% chance of progression heading into MD3 with unpredictable Saudi Arabia.

📊 Team Stats 📊

ARGArgentina MEX Mexico
59% Possession 41%
5 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Shots Wide 2
0 Shots Blocked 1
1 Saves 1
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 0
15 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 4
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
10 Dribbles 2
13 Crosses 15
14 Tackles 18

Did We Get It Right?

Below you will find all the predictions we made before the matchup, on November 23, 2022.

Argentina in Must-Win Mode

After having three goals called offside in the first half vs.Saudi Arabia, Argentina gave up a one goal lead and suffered an embarrassing loss. Lionel Messi & Co. need to pick up the pieces vs. Mexico on Saturday. With neither Argentina and Mexico winning their first match, this is a crucial match between two iconic teams. So, we’ll run through the odds in our Argentina vs Mexico betting preview.

Argentina vs Mexico

Date, time (TV):
Location: Lusail Iconic Stadium, Lusail, Qatar
Streaming: FS1, Telemundo, Peacock

Team Standings and Odds:

Team FIFA World Ranking World Cup Qualifying Record Knockout Stage Odds Odds to Win Group Odds to Win World Cup
Argentina 3 11-6-0, 2nd CONMEBOL -230 +150 +900
Mexico 13 8-4-2, 2nd CONCACAF +110 +330 +10000


Last Five Meetings: Teams
Sep. 2019: Argentina 4-0 Mexico
Nov. 2018: Argentina 2-0 Mexico
Nov. 2018: Argentina 2-0 Mexico
Sep. 2015: Argentina 2-2 Mexico
Jun. 2010: Argentina 3-1 Mexico

Argentina and Mexico have met 35 previous times, including four times in the last decade. Argentina are unbeaten in the last ten meetings, as Mexico last defeated La Albiceleste in 2004. The most recent meeting was a 2019 friendly, which Argentina won 4-0. Lautaro Martinez, who’s on Argentina’s World Cup roster, scored a hat trick. Our Argentina vs Mexico betting preview also notes that the last World Cup meeting was in 2010. Carlos Tevez scored a double as Argentina advanced to the quarterfinals at Mexico’s expense.

Argentina: Off to Nightmare Start

Standings: 0-1, 4th
Previous Match: L, 2-1 vs. Saudi Arabia
Upcoming Match: Nov. 30 vs. Poland

After Lionel Messi slotted home a 10th minute penalty vs. Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, it looked like Argentina would cruise to victory. Messi had a goal called back for offside 12 minutes later and the misfortune started for Argentina. Striker Lautaro Martinez had two more goals called back for offside, one by his hand. Still, La Albiceleste looked like they’d come away with victory after not conceding a single shot on target in the first half.

Then, Saudi Arabia found a second gear and mounted an improbable comeback. The Green Falcons’ Saleh Al-Shehri scored in the 48th minute and Salem Al-Dawsari added a stunner minutes later. Somehow, Argentina failed to score and the heavy -650 favorites embarrassingly lost their first match. Argentina odds to win World Cup opened at +500 and subsequently dropped to +900.

The loss ended a 36-game unbeaten run, which was just one result away from matching Italy’s international record of 37. Coach Lionel Scaloni’s side need to regroup and come away with a win on Saturday. They’re still favorites to win the group, but at longer than even odds now, at +150. It could be a potential unceremonious ending to Messi’s World Cup career if Argentina lose here and Saudi Arabia win or draw vs. Poland.

Mexico: Pose a Threat

Standings: 0-1-0, T-2nd
Previous Match: D, 0-0 vs. Poland
Upcoming Match: Nov. 30 vs. Saudi Arabia

Given the circumstances, Tata Martino and Mexico were certainly not dissatisfied with a draw vs. Poland on Tuesday. Mexico outplayed Poland for long stretches of the match but Hector Moreno fouled Robert Lewandowski in the box 11 minutes in the second half. Guillermo Ochoa saved Lewandowski’s penalty and saved Mexico in the process as the match ended in a scoreless draw. Poland put nine men behind the ball at times but Mexico weren’t incisive enough offensively. They often played in crosses with no one on the end of them.

Hirving Lozano looked like the biggest threat on El Tri but he couldn’t find the net either. Mexico did have some disappointing results on their CONCACAF World Cup qualifying schedule. So, they’ve looked a bit out of sorts for a while. Mexico have only won two of their last seven international matches.

It was positive news for Mexico that Raul Jimenez make a substitute appearance, though. The Wolverhampton Wanderers striker hadn’t played since August and is one of Mexico’s best players if fully healthy. Mexico’s match vs. Poland appeared to be a home game for El Tri with all of the traveling support. It’ll be interesting to see if there are similar crowd dynamics for the match vs. Argentina.

Match Analysis and Odds:

Argentina vs Mexico betting previews note that Argentina come into the match as one-goal favorites. La Albiceleste show even odds to cover the spread coming off of their shocking defeat to Saudi Arabia. Argentina haven’t lost two matches in a row since 2016 and their moneyline odds are -175. Meanwhile, Mexico sit at -120 odds ATS and show a +550 price to win the match. This has not been a kind fixture to El Tri, they’ve only won once in the last eighteen meetings.

Argentina and it’s highly doubtful they’d make the knockout stage in either case. Still, a draw comes in at +290 odds

Both a draw and loss would be disastrous results for Argentina and it’s highly doubtful they’d make the knockout stage in either case. Still, a draw comes in at +290 odds. It’s a result that Mexico would accept, knowing they’d need to defeat Saudi Arabia in their last match to go through. In any case, expect the intensity in the match to be very high.

Messi has scored three times vs. Mexico in his career and will be itching to add to his record on Saturday. With other Argentine attacking threats, like Julian Alvarez, Lautaro Martinez and Angel di Maria, the Mexican defense could be stretched come Saturday. This is expected to be a low scoring affair, though, as under 2½ goals sits at -130 odds. The over shows a +110 price and it’s occurred in five of the last seven meetings.

Argentina vs Mexico FAQ

Did Argentina lose to Saudi Arabia?

Yes, Argentina lost 2-1 to Saudi Arabia in their opening match at the FIFA World Cup. Argentina went up 1-0 and had three goals called for offside in the first half. Then, Saudi Arabia completed a second half comeback.

How many times have Argentina and Mexico played in the FIFA World Cup?

Argentina and Mexico have met three previous times at FIFA World Cups. Argentina have come away with wins in all three matches, most recently in 2010.

When is Argentina vs. Mexico in the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

Argentina vs. Mexico is on Saturday, November 26th at 2:00 p.m. EST.
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