Oddsmakers Hustle to Catch Up to New MLB Rules
Pitch Clock, Limited Pickoffs Have Upped Offense
Catch Up to New MLB Rules
Of all of the MLB major rules changes implemented for the newly started 2023 regular MLB season, none has had more of an immediate impact than the pitch clock. By limiting pitchers to 15 seconds between pitches with no runners on base (and 20 seconds with at least one runner on) and with concurrent limits set on pickoff attempts and both pitcher and batter “disengagements,” game times have been cut by around a half hour per game so far.
But, how have the changes — which include increasing the size of the bases and banning the kinds of overshifts that had become commonplace in baseball in recent years — affected oddsmakers’ views toward games, spreads and totals?
Initially, per an ESPN report, there hasn’t been much of a change. Oddsmakers, and big gamblers making a lot of influential MLB picks today, have basically kept spreads and totals in line with historical numbers just to see how the new rules would actually affect the on-field product. And, through just under a week, there have been some trends but it’s still a very small sample.
The First Big Shift (pun intended)
The first big shift (pun intended) — which is already being reflected by oddsmakers — is the re-emergence of the stolen base.
While the base size and pickoff limitations were MLB major rules changes that predominantly meant to, respectively, increase safety and enforce the pitch clock, they have also had the effect of incentivizing more MLB teams to steal bases which in turn increases action on a per-pitch basis.
In the first 50 games of this season, there were 70 successful stolen base attempts and just 14 unsuccessful attempts.
In the first 50 games of the 2022 season, there were only 33 steals with 14 caught stealings (and four pickoffs). As you can tell, that’s an enormous jump in both stolen base success rate and actual amount of attempts.
While the success rate will likely dip as pitchers and catchers get used to the new rules — and runners steal more in response to the friendlier stolen base environment — it’s clear that the steal is officially back.
While it’s tough to tell how oddsmakers are responding to the throwback stolen base environment, which has hearkened back to the 1980s, it’s certainly worth watching whether single-player steals props become significantly less juiced.
Instead of being a novelty that you might see every other game, successful steals are officially commonplace. That could mean there’s less money to be made on single-player single-game steals bets which typically involve taking one player over or under 0.5 steals.
MLB player stats are also looking up from an offensive perspective. Through April 5th, league-wide batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are all up and teams are scoring around.
2 more runs per game as compared to a year ago. Also, the rate of home runs per fly ball is up by around three percentage points thus far which is hard to attribute to any particular rule change but could just be a side-effect of pitchers being rushed due to their acclimation to the pitch clock.
Oddsmakers Are a Bit behind
While a lot of these stats could revert back toward the standard set in recent seasons as the 2023 campaign progresses and once the MLB major rules changes become more normalized and less novel, for right now, the oddsmakers are a bit behind the curve so to speak.
The single-game run total over has hit well over 50% of the time, highlighted by a 13-1-1 overperformance this past Monday. This could be a one-week blip in the radar or it could be a signal that a new pro-offense era is upon us.
Also, through the first week of the season or so, much of the offensive boost in terms of BABIP (batting average on balls in play) has resulted from ground balls that may have been outs hit into the shift turning into singles that are able to find a hole.
It’s not easy to generalize this trend, which can swing wildly from game to game, but it’s an early indicator that the shift ban is, in fact, working as intended.
It’s also difficult to see oddsmakers being able to change game lines or totals based on a few grounders getting through the infield each game that otherwise would be turned into outs. So, just keep that fact in mind when you’re placing your early-season bets.
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