The Twins Click, The Blue Jays Can’t

Our Twins vs Jays Series Preview Predicts A Rubber Match In Game 3

The Minnesota Twins will travel to Toronto to take on the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend. It’ll be a three-game series with some exciting pitching MLB matchups on the horizon. The Twins are sitting near the top of the AL Central. However, the Blue Jays are three games below .500 and probably don’t have the best matchups to improve this weekend.

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The first matchup in the series will be between Joe Ryan of the Twins and Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays. Sportsbooks think it’ll be a tight battle, giving the Blue Jays a -118 price tag and the Twins a -102 price tag. Meanwhile, the total is currently 7.5, with the under juiced to -115.

We’ve got a lot to cover, so read on about our Twins vs Jays series preview for all three of the weekend’s series.

Twins logo Twins vs Blue Jays Blue Jays logo

Records: Minnesota Twins (22-15), Toronto Blue Jays (17-20)
Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Streaming: SN1, Bally Sports North, Sportsnet+

Minnesota’s Pitching Pipeline

The Twins continue to develop pitching at a high rate in the minor league system. Simeon Woods-Richardson is the next standout for the Twins.

The right-hander is currently 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 21 strikeouts with Minnesota this season. He’s a former first-round pick who the Twins acquired in 2021 from the Toronto Blue Jays. Woods-Richardson was actually drafted by the Mets and had been a top-100 prospect in the minors.

Now he’s big league-ready, and his stats suggest he’ll be in the rotation for the foreseeable future.

Woods-Richardson has seen increased velocity and has attributed hard work to his success. The Minnesota Twins pitching pipeline continues to grow.

You can watch his next start on Saturday in this series.

Toronto’s In Trouble

If the Blue Jays can’t get to at least .500 by the MLB trade deadline, the Blue Jays as we know them won’t be the same.

This season, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have both put up below-average numbers. That’s one of the many reasons the Blue Jays have struggled to win games consistently. If this continues, the Blue Jays will have to make some tough decisions about either holding onto Bichette and Guerrero Jr. or trading them at the trade deadline.

This is not how the Blue Jays envisioned the season going. If the MLB scores and standings don’t change for Toronto, the Blue Jays could really blow up their entire roster for the future.

Twins vs Jays Series Preview and Odds For Game 1:

RL: Blue Jays -1.5 (+175) ML: Blue Jays -115, O/U 7.5 -105/-115

Game 1

  • Friday, 7:07 pm ET
  • Joe Ryan vs. Yusei Kikuchi

The Twins will use Joe Ryan in the first game of the series. Ryan is a righty with a 3.54 ERA. However, he’s also just 1-2 on the season.

Ryan has dominated lefties, holding them to a .111. ISO and wOBA of .298. However, righties have hit a .230 ISO, thanks to just 29.4% of ground balls induced by Ryan. Ryan has added 28.4% of strikeouts and has walked only 3.7% of batters. He’s still throwing like an ace despite the low ground ball numbers to righties.

Since last season, Toronto’s lineup has hit an ISO of .164 and wOBA of .322. There’s more power in the lineup, and that should get to  Ryan, who has allowed a .230 ISO to his first 76 righties of the season.

On the other hand, it’ll be Yusei Kikuchi for the Blue Jays. The left-hander has had a terrific season, holding a 2.72 ERA with 43 strikeouts against 162 batters. He’s also held teams to a .099 ISO and wOBA of .277 to start the season and has kept walks down to 5.6%.

Since last season, Minnesota’s projected lineup has hit a .155 ISO and wOBA of .330 against lefties. While those aren’t jaw-dropping numbers, dating back to last season, the Twins only struck out 19.5% of the time against lefties. The Twins should at least put balls in play against Kikuchi despite his ridiculous numbers heading into this series.

We like Toronto with the MLB odds of -115 for tonight’s matchup.

Game 2

  • Saturday, 3:07 pm ET
  • Simeon Woods-Richardson vs. Kevin Gausman

We’ll get another glimpse of Simeon Woods-Richardson in Game 2 of this series. In 83 plate appearances, Woods-Richardson has struck out 25.3% of batters while holding teams to a .039 ISO and wOBA of .238. He’s also limited walks to 6% but will need to figure out how to induce more ground balls over time.

It’ll be Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays in Game 2. The once-ace hasn’t been the ace for the Twins this year. He has a respectable 3.78 ERA, but he’s also allowed a .180 ISO and wOBA of .327 with only 21.4% of strikeouts this season. That doesn’t compare to his 30.9% of strikeouts last season, so that’s not encouraging for Gausman.

Meanwhile, the Twins will enjoy hitting against righties for the next two games. Minnesota’s left-handed bats with power include Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, Alex Kirlloff, Trevor Larnach, Willie Castro, and Carlos Santana. The Twin’s lefties typically have high strikeouts but do damage when they connect.

The Twins have the better matchup in Game 2 despite going up against Gausman. Side with the rookie Woods-Richardson per our Twins vs Jays series preview of Game 2.

Game 3

  • Sunday, 1:37 pm ET
  • Bailey Ober vs. Alek Manoah

Minnesota will pitch a third righty in this series. This time, it’ll be Bailey Ober, who has also added a high number of strikeouts with a low amount of walks. Still, Ober has only induced 31% of ground balls and has allowed a .216 ISO, with most of the power coming from right-handed batters. However, the strikeouts against righties are also higher for Ober this season.

Ober will contend against Alek Manoah of the Blue Jays in what could be a rubber match of the three-game series. Alek Manoah was once a star for the Blue Jays. But now he’s just getting wrecked every time he’s on a Major League mound.

Manoah has faced 24 batters this season and has allowed a .316 ISO and a wOBA of .468. Most lefties are destroying Manoah. With the Twins’ lineup filled with lefty power, Manoah isn’t in line for success in his next start.

We’d rock with the Twins in the series finale when the lines come out.

For MLB betting lines analysis, news, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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