Twins vs Tigers Betting Preview: Minnesota Maintaining Hold Atop AL Central

Twins (37-38) lead Cleveland by 1.0 game in Division

June 22, 2023 109 3 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

Twins vs Tigers Betting Preview: Minnesota Maintaining Hold Atop AL Central — Duane Burleson/Getty Images/AFP

Long Summer Ahead in Motown
Twins Sticking in First

American League Central rivals Detroit and Minnesota will meet for a three-game weekend series at Comerica Park, starting Friday. While the Twins currently lead the division despite a losing record, the Tigers are once again looking up at the standings, staring at the possibility of another lost season.

Despite that, the Tigers took two of three games from Minnesota earlier this month. Can they build on that success? Read on as we break down the series in our Twins vs Tigers preview.

Game One Odds: Twins -145/+134, Over/Under 9 +104/-124

Long Summer Ahead in Motown

A little over a month out from the MLB trade deadline, the Tigers are shaping up to be sellers. It’s a familiar position for the once-proud franchise, which seems to be stuck in an endless cycle of rebuilding. At 32-41, Detroit is sitting third place in the AL Central, 4.0 games behind the first-place Twins.

Granted, that’s not a huge deficit to overcome, but the Tigers haven’t offered much reason for optimism.Detroit’s run differential of minus-70 is the second-worst in the division and fourth-worst in baseball, ahead of only Colorado (-103), Kansas City (-118) and Oakland (-205).

The Tigers are a poor offensive team, ranking 28th in runs scored, 26th in home runs and 27th in average. Former No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson continues to struggle, as does Javy Baez, Detroit’s prized free-agent acquisition last offseason. Keep that in mind while assessing our Twins vs Tigers preview.

Detroit’s pitching has been poor too, ranking 20th in ERA. The rotation should get a boost shortly though, with left-hander Tarik Skubal nearing a return from the injured list. Skubal posted a 3.52 ERA across 21 starts in 2022, striking out 117 in 117.2 innings. Prized young starters Casey Mize and Matt Manning are also currently hurt, along with veteran Eduardo Rodriguez.

Twins Sticking in First

Despite an underwhelming record, the Twins sit atop the AL Central, 1.0 game ahead of Cleveland. At 37-38, they are the only sub-.500 team in first place. It doesn’t make much sense, but such is the reality of baseball’s weakest division.

Oddsmakers expect the Twins to stay there, pricing them at -175 to win the Central. Cleveland is next on the board at +200. Minnesota is currently a +1100 pick to win the AL pennant.

Minnesota’s mainly fueled by its pitching, which has produced the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors at 3.76. The Twins are also tied for fourth in quality starts with 35, thanks in large part to right-handers Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan. Gray, for example, owns the fourth-best ERA at 2.56.

The Twins added more rotation depth this week, signing left-hander Dallas Keuchel to a minor-league deal. The 2015 AL Cy Young winner and two-time All-Star had been training with Driveline Baseball, working to increase his velocity. He started 14 games for three different clubs last season on the MLB schedule, going 2-9 with a 9.20 ERA.

Game 1

Joey Wentz vs Kenta Maeda (Friday, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Wentz has been hit hard, allowing a 6.82 ERA. At 1-7, he’s tied for the third-most losses in baseball. However, the 25-year-old left-hander is coming off a strong start against Minnesota, in which he struck out a season-high nine batters over six innings. He scattered two hits and two runs, per MLB results.

Maeda will be coming off the Injured List (triceps) to make his first start since April 26. In four starts this season, he is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA.

Oddsmakers seem confident in Maeda’s health, as they’ve listed Minnesota as a -125 favorite. Detroit is priced at +115. The projected total opened at 8, with the Under receiving plus odds (+105). Keep an eye on line movement as you assess our Twins vs Tigers betting preview. Update: Twins -145/+134, Over/Under 9 +104/-124

Game 2

Reese Olson vs Pablo Lopez (Saturday, 7:15 p.m.)

Olson is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA, though the 23-year-old rookie has struck out 19 batters over 19.1 innings. He faces Lopez, who is 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA. Lopez has 110 strikeouts on the season, fourth-most in baseball behind Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (136), Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (127) and Los Angeles’ Shohei Ohtani (117).

Game 3

Michael Lorenzen vs Bailey Ober (Sunday, 1:40 p.m.)

Lorenzen has lost his last three starts and owns a 4.91 ERA in June. He opposes Ober, who is 4-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Those figures would both rank top 10 among qualified starters.

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