Yankees vs Braves Preview: New York Falling Fast
Atlanta With Best Record in MLB
The Yankees vs Braves preview shows a New York team in dire need of a victory. The Yankees have fallen five games out in the wild card race and are last in the AL East. The Braves have the best record in the Major League Baseball standings. Atlanta has a 4.5-game lead over the streaking Los Angeles Dodgers for best record in the National League.
The Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt to the mound in Monday’s opener. Schmidt has gone 8-6 with a 4.23 ERA. The Yankees are 11-12 when Schmidt starts, but have won the last seven times he’s taken the mound. New York is 6-4 when he starts on the road. The Braves will counter with Max Fried, who is 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA after missing much of the season. The Braves are 5-2 when he starts, so it’s no surprise to see Atlanta -215 over New York with a total of 9.
The Yankees simply haven’t done the job at the plate this MLB season. New York is No. 29 in team batting average at .232. New York is No. 21 in runs scored on the basis of being No. 8 in home runs. But it’s been a struggle for the Yankees at the plate. The pitching has been better at No. 11 in team ERA. But if you’re not scoring runs, your pitching has to be better than that.
Atlanta hasn’t had any problems at the plate, ranking No. 1 in team batting average and No. 1 in runs scored. The pitching staff is No. 7 in team ERA, so there’s no weakness on the Braves and it shows in the team’s record.
Monday’s Game
The series opener is a bit of a challenge from a betting standpoint. The line is extremely steep on Fried, who was roughed up a little bit in his last start. The Yankees are 13-8 against left-handed starters, scoring 5.24 runs per game. New York is 47-50 against right-handed starters, scoring 4.13 runs per game. So the Yankees have more success against left-handed starters.
Schmidt has been throwing well lately. In his last five games, the Yankees are allowing an average of 2.8 runs. This ties the highest line the Yankees have seen all season. Schmidt and New York lost to Texas and Jacob deGrom back in April as +185 underdogs. New York is worth a stab with the MLB lines at +185.
Tuesday’s Game
The Yankees vs Braves preview shows struggling Luis Severino and Bryce Elder as the scheduled starters for Game 2. Severino has had a season to forget. He’s 2-7 with an 8.06 ERA. Severino has allowed 92 hits in 63 2/3 innings and allowed 18 home runs. The Yankees are 5-8 when he starts.
Elder is 8-4 with an ERA of 3.64. The Braves have gone 15-8 when he starts despite losing his last two trips to the mound. Atlanta has allowed five or more runs in five of his last six starts. In his last seven starts, Elder has a 2-3 record and a 6.94 ERA. With neither pitcher throwing well, the over looks to be the way to go in this spot.
Wednesday’s Game
The Yankees vs Braves preview shows Randy Vasquez and Charlie Morton as the starters for the series finale. Vasquez has thrown well since being called up by the Yankees. He’s 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA. He’s appeared in four games and started three of them. The Yankees are 1-2 in the games he’s started and he earned a win in relief.
Morton is just 11-10 on the season with an ERA of 3.71. Atlanta is 12-11 in the games Morton has started, but 11-5 when he starts and the Braves score three or more runs. While not having his best season from a statistical standpoint, Morton is still eating up innings and giving the bullpen a rest. Teams need pitchers like that.
The impressive numbers of Vasquez could help keep this line a little bit and it’s a game Atlanta should win. As long as the price is reasonable, there’s no reason not to take Atlanta to win this one.
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