American League Showdown: Orioles vs Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners are a -135 home favorite, with the total sitting at 7.5 ( -115 over). Kyle Gibson (11-6, 4.50 era) gets the ball for Baltimore and Luis Castillo (7-7, 3.21) for the Mariners. The betting public is all over the Orioles, with 78% of the moneyline dollars coming in on Baltimore. 60% of the overall betting tickets are in Baltimore. The first pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled at 10:10 EST/7:10 PST.

We continue our Orioles vs Mariners preview with a look at both clubs.

First Place Orioles Takes Show On The Road

Even after a 40-18 start for the Tampa Bay Rays, the Orioles never allowed the Tampa Bay Rays to run away and hide in the American League East Major League Baseball standings. The biggest lead the Rays had was just 6 ½ games on July 1st, due to the Orioles under the radar 48-33 start. Unlike Tampa, who are just 12-20 over their last 32 games, Baltimore has never had a losing month.

Now, the O’s are up three games in the American League East to start a series in the Pacific Northwest. Baltimore Orioles starter Kyle Gibson has won two straight decisions over the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays, allowing four earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched (2.77 eras). Gibson has had four straight quality starts (3.24 era in his previous 25 innings), with Baltimore winning three of those games and four of his last five starts.

In his career against Seattle Mariners, the former Missouri Tiger is 4-5 with a 4.21 era against Seattle. The 1-time all-star was roughed up by the M’s on June 23rd after giving up five runs in three innings, a 13-1 Baltimore loss. The Orioles’ +69 run differential is among the MLB leaders in 2023 (6th). We continue our Orioles vs Mariners preview by focusing on the Mariners.

Speaking Of Under The Radar

The Seattle Mariners are taking a page from the Baltimore Orioles when it comes to playing great baseball but still remaining stealth-like in the standings. The M’s are just 5 ½ games in back of the Texas Rangers for the top spot in the American League West after winning seven straight games and 24 of their last 34. Seattle is just 1 ½ games in back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the final wild card spot with a favorable schedule to close out August.

Besides this series against Baltimore and three against Houston next week, Seattle will face teams outside playoff contention in 16 of their next 22, making this series extremely important. Tonight’s starter, Luis Castillo, was acquired by the Mariners in 2022 for these moments, even though Seattle has struggled to put up runs at times for the Dominican native.

Castillo is just 11-9 in 34 starts for Seattle, but his era has been terrific again this season (3.21) after finishing 2022 with a 3.17 era in 11 starts for the M’s. Castillo has four quality starts in his last five outings, but his numbers in that span have been less than what you would expect, allowing 15 earned runs in his previous 30 innings (4.50 era). It appears that Baltimore has a slight edge between starting pitching, but as we conclude our Orioles vs Mariners betting preview, let’s see if that perceived edge results in a wager.

Orioles Take A Day To Acclimate

We’ve said it a million times, MLB stats will only tell you where you’ve been, not where you’re going. It never takes into account the human or psychological side of wagering. Yesterday, Baltimore finally won against the Houston Astros in what was an emotionally charged crowd in front of a national audience.

Then Baltimore flew across the country for tonight’s match-up against the Mariners, who have been at home for three days. They’ll have a three-time all-star on the mound who has received 46 runs of support over his last eight starts (5.75 per game), a number that is better than his season average of 4.75 per game.

We think Seattle will be the more rested club between the two, with a pitcher who is expected to win big games down the stretch. Take Seattle -135, but expect that number to drop with the public clearly taking the plus money. That does it for our Orioles vs Mariners betting preview; we wish you the best down the stretch.

For MLB betting news, odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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