2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400: Larson vs Hamlin for top odds in Texas

The first round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is officially in the books. Four drivers are out of contention: Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Kevin Harvick, and defending champion Joey Logano. Twelve drivers remain as the grid heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the 2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400. Here’s how the odds look for this weekend’s race.

Larson, Hamlin lead the odds for victory

The first three rounds have seen three different winners so far in the playoffs: Kyle Larson in Darlington, Tyler Reddick in Kansas, and Denny Hamlin in Bristol. This week, Larson and Hamlin are the favorites for victory at +450.

Larson’s been the best driver in the playoffs so far. His win in Darlington preceded fourth in Kansas, where he led the most laps, and second in Bristol behind Hamlin.

Historically, Texas Motor Speedway is one of his worst tracks on the Cup Series calendar. He has one win in 15 races and just five other top-10 results. His average finish (18th) is seventh-worst of all the tracks in his Cup Series career. He’s crashed out of three of his past seven races there, and, besides his win in 2021, he’s finished in the top 10 just twice in that period. This is a bet on recent form, and a win would be outside of the norm for his typical Texas Motor Speedway form.

Texas Motor Speedway isn’t Hamlin’s best track, either. But he’s won three times in 32 races and notched a further 12 top-10 results. He last won this race in 2019, and Joe Gibbs Racing’s won this event twice in the last decade. His win in Bristol was a departure from his usual form at that track. Can he produce a similar result here and jump up the NASCAR standings?

William Byron and Tyler Reddick are next in odds for victory at +700. Byron’s never won in Fort Worth, but he’s been solid; eight career races have yielded four top-10 finishes. He took seventh last year and second in 2021. He’s finished in the top five just once so far in the playoffs. After leading the Cup Series in wins in the regular season (five), he needs a victory in the playoffs sooner rather than later. In the last eight years, Hendrick Motorsports has only won one of these races.

Reddick, by contrast, is the best Cup Series driver by average finish in Fort Worth, albeit with just four career races there. He won this event last year and sits behind Larson as the best playoff performer so far. His win in Kansas and second in Darlington makes him a threat once again, confirmed by his NASCAR odds for victory.

This Texas Motor Speedway race has seen multiple repeat winners in the last decade: Jimmie Johnson won each race from 2012 to 2015, and Harvick won three in a row from 2017 to 2019. He’ll have a good shot at victory once again.

Martin Truex Jr. rounds out the favorites at +800 for victory. After a stellar regular season, Truex Jr.’s struggling in the playoffs. Three consecutive finishes outside the top 15, something he hasn’t done since March, put him at risk of missing the Round of 12. He managed to secure his spot and come back up to second in the standings, thanks to his strong regular season.

Truex Jr.’s never won in Fort Worth in 33 NASCAR races there. He’s finished just seven of his last 10 races in Fort Worth and crashed out in 2022, 2021, and 2018. He’s done relatively well when he’s finished with five top-10 results. A win or strong result, in general could pull him out of the relative funk he’s in so far this postseason.

2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 sleeper picks

Christopher Bell (+1100) has earned pole position for each race on the Cup Series schedule in the postseason but has yet to make it to victory lane. His third-place finish last week in Bristol was his best of the postseason with two stage wins and the most laps led. He’s been solid in limited career running in Fort Worth but raced well in 2023 at similar tracks like Las Vegas (fifth) and Kansas (eighth from pole two weeks ago).

Kyle Busch (+1400) is one of the best drivers at Fort Worth on the current Cup Series grid. In 32 races, he has four wins and another 14 top-10 results. He won this race in 2020, the last Joe Gibbs Racing victory there, and eighth in 2021.

He crashed out last season but is enjoying a resurgent 2023 campaign with Richard Childress Racing, the team that won this race last year. He’s sixth in the NASCAR standings after solid results in Darlington and Kansas. A win here could help ensure a spot in the Round of 8.

Bubba Wallace (+1800) doesn’t have the best track record in Fort Worth, with one top-10 finish in eight races. But he has raced well at similar tracks in 2023, including Las Vegas (fourth), Kansas (fourth in the May race), and Charlotte. He’s one of just two winless drivers left in the playoff field and needs a victory to move on to the next round.

2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 picks for this weekend

Fort Worth marks the next round of the playoffs. Twelve drivers are set to continue on with many looking in good form for a win.

Of the favorites, Byron looks like the best bet. He hasn’t won there before but has raced very well at similar tracks like Las Vegas (win), Kansas (third in May), and Charlotte (second). For a better payout, look to Busch to notch his first win since Gateway.

For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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