2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Picture: The round of 16 begins

It’s finally here. Months and thousands of laps after the Daytona 500, the stage is set for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Sixteen drivers are set to compete for the 2023 championship. The regular season provided plenty of action and parity to set up what should be a thrilling conclusion. Here’s how the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture looks heading into the first race at Darlington.

Byron hops to the top of the standings

Martin Truex Jr. took home his second regular-season title this season thanks to a series-leading 15 top-10 results in 26 races. But he doesn’t hold the top spot in the NASCAR playoff standings. That mark instead goes to William Byron.

Byron and Truex Jr. are even on points at 2,036. Byron’s five wins to Truex Jr.’s three gives him the edge. His victories came spread out over the season at races three (Las Vegas), four (Phoenix), 13 (Darlington), 19 (Atlanta), and 25 (Watkins Glen). He also had a Cup Series-best eight stage wins to Truex Jr.’s six.

Truex Jr.’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin kept pace at the top of the standings all season and sits third at 2,025 points. Chris Buescher is fourth at 2,021 thanks to a late-season push that saw three wins in the final six NASCAR races.

Here’s how the rest of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture looks.

5. Kyle Busch (2,019 points)

6. Kyle Larson (2,017)

7. Christopher Bell (2,014)

8. Ross Chastain (2,011)

9. Brad Keselowski (2,010)

10. Tyler Reddick (2,009)

11. Joey Logano (2,008)

12. Ryan Blaney (2,008)

13. Michael McDowell (2,007)

14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2,005)

15. Kevin Harvick (2,004)

16. Bubba Wallace (2,000)

Favorites to win the 2023 Cup Series championship

The NASCAR betting favorites reflect the championship standings heading into the first race. Truex Jr. is the favorite at +400. His consistency every week for six months makes him the right choice as the favorite for the title.

But history is not on his side. Since the introduction of the playoffs in 2004, the regular season points winner has won the championship just four times. Truex Jr.’s been one of the few to do it when he took his first title in 2017.

Three drivers behind him at +550 are Larson, Hamlin, and leader Byron.

This trio makes sense as the next-best group in odds. Larson should arguably be leading the championship if not for his bad luck at multiple events this season. His 10 top-five results are the most among the playoff drivers, but so are his six DNFs.

Hamlin’s kept pace with Truex Jr. throughout the season with two wins but plenty of top-10 results. He’s one of the best drivers on the grid at Darlington and could start off the NASCAR playoff schedule strong with a good result this weekend.

Byron’s been less consistent than Truex Jr. and Hamlin, but you can’t argue with the most wins of the season. He’ll need more highs than lows to win his first Cup Series title.

Bell’s next at +1100. He started the season strong with five top-five finishes in the first eight races but couldn’t keep that pace up. He managed just one more top-five result over the rest of the season. He’ll need a significant change in form to take his first career Cup Series title.

Defending champion Logano and Chastain are tied at +1200. Logano’s title came with just two regular season wins last year, a mark he equaled over the playoffs. He’ll need similar results this year to come up from 11th in the playoff standings.

Chastain led the standings for most of 2023 before dropping off in form over the second half of the season. His win from pole position in Nashville was a needed boost, but he followed that with just one top-10 finish in the final nine events. He needs a significant change in form to catch the leaders.

Buescher (+1600) is a major sleeper here. He’s arguably the hottest driver in the Cup Series, thanks to his late-season trio of wins. No one can match his momentum coming into Darlington to start the playoffs.

What to expect for the Cup Series playoffs

We’ve seen many times that regular season standings have little bearing on the final outcome of the championship. Last season’s regular season champion, Chase Elliott ended up fourth by the finale in Phoenix.

The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture will change a lot over the next few weeks. After Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol events, the field will be trimmed down to 12 drivers. If the regular season is any indication, it’ll be a close fight to the finish.

For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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