2023 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard: Truex Jr. Holds Favored

It took until the final month of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, but a second driver won consecutive events in 2023. Chris Buescher made it two in a row with his win in Michigan. That equals his win total from the prior eight years of Cup Series racing. This week, the Cup Series ditches ovals for the road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. It’s just the third running of the event since re-joining the calendar in 2021. Here’s your betting primer for the 2023 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard.

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Truex Jr. favored over a previous winner

The 2023 Cup Series season’s been a very successful one for Martin Truex Jr. The 2017 champion’s been on top of the NASCAR standings for weeks thanks to consistently strong results, including four top-10 finishes.

He’s historically raced well in road courses like Indianapolis. Five career wins in 48 road course races is a good success rate, including four wins in Sonoma (one this season) and one in Watkins Glen. He’s +425 for victory on Sunday and, given his road course success and momentum in 2023, will likely be fighting near the front again.

Tyler Reddick’s close behind him at +525. He’s the defending race winner and one of the best road course drivers on the Cup Series grid. Road course wins in Elkhart Lake, Austin, and Indianapolis make for three of his four career Cup Series victories. He won in Austin earlier this season after leading the most laps and pulling away from the field. He’ll likely be at the front for this race as well.

Chase Elliott (+750) rounds out the group of favorites. He finished fourth in the event in 2021 and has a good track record on road courses, too. Seven of his 18 career wins have come in that format, including two wins each at the Charlotte Roval and Watkins Glen.

Elliott’s strong pace in Sonoma, Nashville, and Chicago has dropped off in the last five races. Tenth in Pocono is his best result in the previous five weeks of the NASCAR schedule. His 36th place in Michigan was disappointing, and he’ll be focused on improving here. His strong record on road courses, including in 2023, makes him a good pick this week.

Bunched up the group behind the favorites

Four drivers sit at +1000 for victory on Sunday: Christopher Bell, Shane van Gisbergen, Kyle Larson, and Kyle Busch.

Bell’s in the midst of his worst 2023. A pole last week in Michigan only yielded 13th place. After opening the year with eight top-10 finishes in 11 races, he has just three in the previous 12. He led much of Chicago only to be caught out and finish 18th. Poles in Loudon and Michigan didn’t yield strong results. He needs a good result here.

Van Gisbergen is a wild card for the weekend. His win on debut in Chicago’s one of the more incredible sports events of the year. The three-time Supercars champion became the first driver since 1963 to win his first Cup Series race. He also is the first New Zealander to win a Cup Series event.

Can he make it two wins out of two Cup Series races? Thanks to extensive road course racing in his Supercars career, he has the background for it. It’d be another shock, but a surprise may be on the NASCAR schedule for this weekend.

Like teammate Elliott, Larson has a history of good results on road courses with wins at Watkins Glen and the Charlotte Roval. He’s had mixed results in Indianapolis; third in 2021 before crashing out on lap 57 last year. Luckily, he’s in pretty good form with four top-five results in the previous seven races. Look or him to be near the front again this weekend.

Busch comes into this race with three top-five finishes in the last six races. He had strong showings in Sonoma and Austin (second in both races). Historically, he’s been solid on road courses, with four wins in 50 races. Another win this time would make him just the second Cup Series driver with four victories in 2023 after William Byron.

Longer odds for the 2023 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard

Road course ringer A.J. Allmendinger is +1600 for victory this weekend. He won this race in 2021 after late contact between Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin. He hasn’t been a standout on road courses in 2023, with a 34th-place finish in Austin and sixth in Sonoma. But he did win this race from pole in the Xfinity Series last year. After the final restart, he and Reddick made for an exciting NASCAR duel in 2022. He’s a high-payout pick with more confidence than others around him, odds-wise.

Hamlin (+2200) is the best Cup Series driver over the last three races, with three consecutive top-three finishes. He’s just 57 points behind Truex Jr. for the championship lead. In 2021, he was in contention before that late contact took him out. This season, he started on pole in Sonoma and Chicago, showing his pace outside of ovals. As one of the best drivers in the Cup Series again this year, he makes for a great pick this week.

Predictions for the 2023 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard

Road courses can jumble up the typical order for Cup Series races. This week’s race in Indianapolis precedes the grid’s annual visit to the historic Watkins Glen circuit, making for a change of pace before the season finale in Daytona. But this week’s odds show some of the better drivers this season are well-equipped to race well in different settings.

Of the favorites, Reddick has a great shot at making it two wins in a row at Indianapolis. He’s been solid lately and could break through for another road-course victory.

If you’re looking for a better payout, van Gisbergen is an incredible story and would be a fun choice. Hamlin’s a perfect choice for an even better payout. No Cup Series driver can match his recent form, and he nearly took a win here in 2021.

For NASCAR odds analysis, betting news, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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