NASCAR Firekeepers Casino 400 Odds: Larson the favorite once again in Michigan

We’ve reached the final month of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season. Just four events remain before 16 drivers battle for the 2023 championship. Chris Buescher solidified his spot in that field with a win last week in Richmond. This week, the grid heads to Michigan for round 23. The NASCAR Firekeepers Casino 400 odds predict a close fight for the win among at least six drivers.

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Larson is back on top of the odds

After a few weeks out of the top spot, Kyle Larson is favored for the win on Sunday once again at +600. He’s enjoyed success at Michigan in prior years with three wins in four events from 2016-2017. Recent years have had less success, with seventh last year and third in 2021 and the August race in 2019.

Historically, only Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott have a better career average finish than Larson at Michigan. Larson took second in Kansas and led the most laps in one of his strongest races of the season. He’ll be fighting at the front again.

Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are tied at +700. Hamlin’s been one of the best Cup Series drivers over the last three races. Seventh in Loudon, a win in Pocono, and second in Richmond has him just 39 points behind Martin Truex Jr. in the NASCAR standings. His win in Kansas also sets him up for a strong showing here. He won in Michigan in 2010 and 2011 and started on pole in 2018. He’s finished no lower than sixth in the last five races there. if not the win, he’ll at least be in the mix for another top-five finish.

No other Cup Series driver can match the NASCAR results Harvick has in Michigan. His six wins at the track are the most among active drivers. That includes five wins in the last seven Cup Series races at Michigan. This is Harvick’s final season in the Cup Series, and he’s yet to win a race. It’d be fitting for his first victory to come here.

Three drivers are tied at +800: Kyle Busch, William Byron, and Truex Jr. Busch is the only one of the three to have won at Michigan before in 2011. He bounced back from poor back-to-back results in Loudon and Pocono to take third in Richmond last week. Earlier this season, he struggled at Kansas. He’s also had mixed results in recent years and finished inside the top three just once since 2018. It’d be a surprise for him to be at the top again.

Byron’s raced only eight times at Michigan in his career so far. In 2021, he led 18 laps and finished second from 18th. That was by far his best result there. He’s only finished in the top 10 one other time when he took eighth in the 2019 fall race. He did show speed in Kansas, though, and took the pole before finishing third. He’s currently third in the NASCAR standings thanks to his consistency. As such, he’ll likely be near the front again.

Championship leader Truex Jr. continues to be arguably the best driver in NASCAR over recent weeks. A dominant win in Loudon, third in Pocono, and seventh in Richmond keeps him at the top of the standings. Though he’s never won in Michigan, he’s had solid performances there. Fifteen of his 32 races there have ended in a top-10 finish. Nine of those 15 were in the top three. It may not be his weekend for victory, but he’ll likely be in the top five again.

Longer NASCAR Firekeepers Casino 400 odds worth considering

Defending champion Joey Logano (+1400) has one of the better track records in Michigan. Twenty-six NASCAR races have yielded three wins and another 15 top-10 finishes. Only Larson, Harvick, and Chase Elliott have better average finishes among Cup drivers with more than one race at the track.

His last win in Michigan came in the first 2019 race. Since then, he’s been inconsistent. In the fall 2019 race, he took 17th; in 2022, he finished eighth from pole and then fifth. In 2021, he was DVP’d with 12 laps to go. Last year, he started fourth and finished there. He finished sixth in Kansas earlier this season.

Bubba Wallace (+1600) took his first career Cup Series pole last season in Michigan. Harvick got the best of him by just 2.903 seconds in the race. That was one of Wallace’s best results of 2022 and preceded a win in Kansas during the playoffs. The first Kansas race this season was the site of one of his best results of the year (fourth). Could he do one place better this time and be the 14th driver to win in 2023?

Ross Chastain is also +1600 for the win. He’s been in a rough patch over the last month and a half and failed to finish in the top 10 since his victory in Nashville. But he’s shined at similar tracks to Michigan. He led the most laps, took third in Fontana, and later took fifth in Kansas. He needs a bounce-back performance ahead of the playoffs. This could be the venue for it.

Predictions for the Firekeepers Casino 400

Michigan’s an exciting race to kick off the final month of the NASCAR regular season. It’s one of the fastest tracks on the calendar thanks to its wide corners and long straightaways.

Harvick feels like the right choice as far as the favorites in the NASCAR Firekeepers Casino 400 odds go. Yes, he’s been dominant there in recent years. But it’d be a storybook feeling for him to get his first win of his final season at one of his best tracks.

For a better payout, look for Wallace to break through. He nearly had Harvick last year and excels at these high-speed tracks.

For NASCAR odds, betting news, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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