NASCAR Pocono 400 Odds: Truex Jr., Hamlin pace close field

Another week, another (somewhat) new leader in what’s been an exciting NASCAR Cup Series season. Martin Truex Jr. again leads the way after his dominant win in Loudon. He retakes the top spot in the championship as the schedule turns to one of the more unique tracks on the calendar: Pocono. Fresh off his third win in 2023, the NASCAR Pocono 400 odds point to another strong performance by Truex Jr.

Truex Jr., Hamlin, Busch favorites for victory

Truex Jr. won the rain-delayed Crayon 301 at New Hampshire to bounce back from two bad results. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver led the most laps and won every stage of the race. His third win of the season gives him a 17-point lead over William Byron in the NASCAR point standings.

At +500, oddsmakers point to Truex Jr. to make it four wins in 2023. Byron’s the only driver to win consecutive races in 2023 (Las Vegas and Phoenix) but Pocono’s a good opportunity. Truex Jr.’s won there twice (the latest in 2018) and Joe Gibbs Racing has won six of the last eight editions of this race. He has both momentum, experience, and a good team behind him. He’ll be fighting near the front again.

Truex Jr.’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin is also +500 for victory. Hamlin finished back in the top 10 for the first time since Nashville with a seventh-place result in Loudon. He’s now just 66 points behind Truex Jr. in the standings as the NASCAR race schedule goes to one of his favorite tracks.

Two of those six Joe Gibbs Racing victories (2019 and 2020) were with Hamlin taking the chequered flag. He has more Cup Series wins in Pocono (six) than any other track on the calendar. It’s his best track for qualifying as well with an average start of seventh. There are few places to feel more confident in Hamlin than Pocono. He was classified the winner originally last season before being disqualified for illegal modifications.

Another multiple-time winner rounds out the top trio with Kyle Busch (+550). He’s won three of the last Pocono 400 events in 2017, 2018, and 2021. Only Hamlin has more career Cup Series wins than Busch’s four in 35 races. He had his worst result of the season last week in Loudon (36th) in what’s been a strong campaign with a new team. He’s a strong bounce-back candidate this week much like Truex Jr. last week.

Behind the top trio, Kyle Larson (+700) and Byron (+800) have the shortest odds for victory. Larson’s third place in Loudon makes it four top-five finishes in the last six races. But it’s still been three months since he’s made it to victory lane.

Much like his 2023 season, Larson’s solid but winless in Pocono. Fifteen career races there have yielded nine top-10 finishes. He finished fifth last year and led 18 laps. It’d be a surprise given Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing’s dominance lately to see Larson in victory lane but not impossible.

Byron’s reign at the top of the NASCAR championship ended thanks to a 24th-place finish in New Hampshire. The gap to Truex Jr.’s small enough a win here could leapfrog him back to the top of the standings. Like Larson, he’s had great but winless performances at Pocono. His average finish there (ninth) is the best career average of anyone on the Cup Series grid. He could be the first driver to five wins this season with a victory on Sunday.

Longer NASCAR Pocono 400 odds to consider

Kevin Harvick (+1400) won one of two Pocono races in 2020 and finished second in the other one. He has the most Cup Series races in Pocono of any driver on the grid (43). He’s finished in the top five 15 times and led nearly 300 laps over the years.

His 27th-place result last year came thanks to a late crash. A fourth-place result in Loudon last week puts him back on track after a three-race slump. He’s still looking for his first win of the season and could push for victory this week.

Christopher Bell (+1400) is another Joe Gibbs Racing driver but with much better NASCAR odds than his teammates. His pole last week in Loudon led to a 29th-place result, one of his worst in 2023. This NASCAR Cup Series race favors his team and he finished fourth last year.

Daniel Suarez (+2800) has yet to win in 2023 but Pocono’s one of his better tracks. One of his two career poles came there in 2018 and he finished third last year. His 16th place last week was a dropoff from his strong second-place result in Atlanta. He could be a surprise sleeper this week.

Pocono 400 picks

Joe Gibbs Racing’s been dominant at this race in Pocono for years. Hamlin’s pole last year would’ve led to victory if it weren’t for a disqualification. Look for him to right that wrong this time around.

If you want NASCAR Pocono 400 odds with a better payout, look for Bell to take the chequered flag for the second time in 2023.

For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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