NASCAR Ambetter Health 200 Odds: Nemechek Favored for Win

Nemechek increased his lead in the standings with a win in Atlanta. Can he repeat this week in New Hampshire?

July 13, 2023 239 4 minutes readNASCAR News

NASCAR Ambetter Health 200 Odds: Nemechek Favored for Win — Alex Slitz/Getty Images/AFP

Nemechek paces the field
Longer NASCAR Ambetter Health 200 odds to consider
Picks for the Ambetter Health 200

There are two months left to go in the NASCAR Xfinity Series regular season. Four drivers stand out above the field with championship leader John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Hill, Cole Custer, and Justin Allgaier. That group is nearly 100 points clear of the next driver, rookie Chandler Smith in fifth.

This week the schedule takes the Xfinity grid to New Hampshire to The Miracle Mile in Loudon. Following his victory in Atlanta last week, the NASCAR Ambetter Health 200 odds point to Nemechek for yet another victory in 2023.

Nemechek paces the field

Xfinity Series leader Nemechek (+240) took the lead from Justin Haley with just three laps to go in the Alsco Uniforms 250 last week. He earned his first win in Atlanta since 2016 and his third win of the season despite finishing outside the top 10 in both stages 1 and 2.

This week, he heads to a track with a good history for him. Fourth in 2018 in the Xfinity Series and a pair of top-five finishes in the Craftsman Truck Series. In similar tracks Phoenix and Richmond, he’s finished sixth and second, respectively.

He’s also on the right team for the track. Joe Gibbs Racing has won 11 of the last 14 Ambetter Health 200 events. The best team for this track and one of the best drivers of the season is a hard combination to beat. He’s the heavy favorite for a good reason.

Allgaier’s next-shortest in odds at +400. Last season he became one of the few non-Joe Gibbs Racing drivers to win in New Hampshire in recent history with his victory at the Crayon 200. Unlike many other tracks on the 2023 NASCAR Cup schedule, New Hampshire’s seen multiple consecutive winners.

Before his win last season, Christopher Bell won the preceding three New Hampshire races. Kyle Busch won back-to-back before Bell’s three wins. New Hampshire’s been one of Allgaier’s best tracks over the last few years, with top-three finishes in 2021 and 2019. He’ll be a threat to win again.

Allgaier’s teammate Josh Berry’s next in odds at +500. He hasn’t raced particularly well there over the years but did score pole for last year’s race. Phoenix and Richmond both were some of his best results of the season with eighth- and third-place finishes, respectively. A win here wouldn’t be a surprise, given his speed last year but it could be tough considering the rest of the field.

Custer comes in next at +550. He continued his streak of top-10 finishes last week in Atlanta with a third-place result. That streak makes him the most consistent driver in the series and just 45 points back from Nemechek in the NASCAR Xfinity standings.

He’s had solid performances in New Hampshire, with a second place in 2019 and top-10 results in 2017 and 2018. He also has two wins from lower categories in 2013 and 2014. In Phoenix earlier this season, he put the car on pole. In Richmond, he raced his way to fifth. He could be in for yet another top performance again this weekend.

Rookie Sammy Smith rounds out the favorites at +600. Oddsmakers are heavily considering his Phoenix win, in which he led the most laps and his team (Joe Gibbs Racing). His results have been inconsistent lately. Four top-10 results in the last six NASCAR races have been countered by 30th in Portland and 34th in Nashville. He’s got the right team for the race and could make for a surprise winner.

Longer NASCAR Ambetter Health 200 odds to consider

Sheldon Creed (+1600) has had solid performances at both Phoenix (third) and Richmond (sixth) this season. He led 24 laps last week in Atlanta and won stage 2 of the race before retiring on lap 88. Last season, he finished fifth in New Hampshire in his first official race there. Look for him to potentially surprise in victory lane for the first time this season.

Of the primary title contenders, Hill (+2000) has by far the longest NASCAR odds for victory. He had a solid race last year in his rookie season and raced his way from 15th to seventh by the chequered flag. Hill has top 10 finishes in Phoenix (seventh) and Richmond (ninth) this season. He had a worse-than-expected result in Atlanta (12th) last week and will be looking to improve that this week.

Picks for the Ambetter Health 200

The odds this week point to a good group of contenders for victory. Even if it was an Xfinity NASCAR race today, Nemechek’s the driver of the moment. He’s got a team behind him that’s excelled in New Hampshire. He’s the choice here among the favorites, but Smith makes for a good pick with similar backing and a better payout.

Of the longer shots in the NASCAR Ambetter Health 200 odds, look for Hill to break through. Atlanta’s one of his best tracks and to finish outside the top 10 for the first time in nearly two months has to be frustrating. He’ll be motivated to bounce back in a big way.

For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.