2024 GEICO 500 Odds: Favorites, sleepers in Talladega
Chase Elliott ended his victory drought in Texas last weekend. Could he make it two in row at Talladega?
One of the longer win droughts among NASCAR Cup Series drivers is over. Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott, the 2021 Cup Series champion, finally got back in victory lane last week at Texas Motor Speedway.
It marked his first win since the fall Talladega race in 2022.
He becomes the sixth different winner so far this Cup Series season. Could he be the first driver to win consecutive races? Here’s how the 2024 GEICO 500 Odds stack up.
2024 GEICO 500 Odds: Favorites for victory
Denny Hamlin (+1000)
Hamlin’s cooled off a bit after wins in Bristol and Richmond. He won Stage Two in Martinsville but crashed in Turn 4 last weekend for his worst result of the season so far. Still, he’s one of just two NASCAR race winners in 2024, with more than one victory this season. He’s in the top three of the standings and secured his playoff spot.
He’s one of the better drivers in Talladega. In his last 10 races there, Hamlin’s won one and finished in the top five another four times, including last time out in the YellaWood 500. Of the three superspeedways, Talladega is his best by-average finish.
Joey Logano (+1000)
Logano continues his climb up the Cup Series standings after an 11th-place result in Texas. That marks four straight top-15 results compared to just one over the opening five races of the season. His rise could continue this weekend.
Logano has three wins in Talladega: the 2018 GEICO 500 and the fall Talladega race in 2015 and 2016. However, he’s had a more challenging time recently, with just two top-10 results in his last ten races there.
He consistently puts it together in qualifying. Only Kyle Larson can beat his average starting position in Talladega over the last 10 events. But he’s struggled to do so on race day.
Ryan Blaney (+1000)
The defending Cup Series champion also had a rough go in Texas. He technically was still running by the chequered flag but was classified 33rd for this worst result of the NASCAR season. That’s a stark drop from his typical pace this season, with five top-15 finishes in the opening eight races.
Historically, Blaney is one of the most reliable drivers at Talladega. Among Cup Series regulars, his average finish at Talladega Superspeedway (eighth) is far better than any other driver.
He won the most recent Talladega race during last year’s playoffs and finished second in the prior two events. He could use a bounce-back performance after that poor result in Texas, and this could be the place to do it.
Brad Keselowski (+1100)
Keselowski came incredibly close to ending his winless drought in Texas. The 2012 Cup Series champion finished behind Elliott for his third top-five result so far this season. Luckily, Talladega is one of his better tracks.
His most recent Cup Series win came at Talladega in the 2021 GEICO 500. That marked his sixth Talladega win, the most among active drivers. Since that last win, he’s been a boom-or-bust contender at the track.
Two top-five finishes are balanced out by a DNF and two results outside the top 20. He’s typically raced better when he qualifies higher up the order.
William Byron (+1100)
Byron notched another top result with a third-place finish in Texas. The Hendrick Motorsports driver is sitting pretty with three wins at fifth in the NASCAR Cup Series standings. One of those wins came at another superspeedway in the Daytona 500.
He’s never won a Cup Series race in Talladega, but he’s consistently near the front. Last year, he finished seventh in this race and second in the fall Talladega race. In 2022, he finished 15th (after leading the most laps) and 12th.
He’s a proven winner at superspeedways this year and could be a safe pick for a strong result.
Chase Elliott (+1100)
Fresh off his Texas win, Elliott comes to one of his better tracks on the calendar. He has the best average finish (13th) among active drivers with at least two starts in Talladega.
Elliott’s won there twice: the 2022 YellaWood 500 and the 2019 GEICO 500. No one’s won consecutive races this season so far but Elliott looks poised for a good result.
Sleepers to consider
Bubba Wallace (+1400)
Wallace is off to a good start in 2024, with four top-10 results already. His seventh-place finish last time out in Texas moves him to ninth in the championship standings. He’s one of the better speedway drivers on the grid and consistently NASCAR races well in these environments.
He finished fifth in the Daytona 500 and won the Talladega fall race in 2021. He’s struggled in Talladega since that win, with four results outside the top 15, but with how he’s driving so far in 2024, he could break that rough spell.
Kyle Busch (+1600)
Busch had one of his better results in Texas, ninth place by the chequered flag. He’s cracked the top five just once this year, third place in Atlanta.
But that highlights how he could do well at a superspeedway like Talladega this weekend. He won this event last year and finished third the year before. He’s typically a solid qualifier with four top-10 starts since 2020.
Christopher Bell (+1800)
Bell’s had an inconsistent start to 2024. Top-three finishes in Daytona, Phoenix, and Austin outweigh three finishes outside the top 30. But he’s a good driver in Talladega. He earned pole position on merit in both Talladega races in 2022.
Last year, he finished eighth in this event and 14th in the YellaWood 500. He came very close to winning in Daytona in one of the season’s best NASCAR duels and could make good on that with a win this weekend.
Erik Jones (+2500)
Jones has just two wins in his Cup Series career, but one of those was at a superspeedway with Daytona in 2018. He’s one of the most consistent drivers on the grid in Talladega.
Over his last 10 races there, he’s finished an average of 14th with six top-10 results. Jones has finished better than he started in all but two races in that span as well. He’s worth a flyer of a bet with a fantastic payout.
2024 GEICO 500 Odds: Picks this weekend
Talladega’s typically one of the toughest races to predict with its high speeds and wide track. The NASCAR odds are so wide open as many drivers could get lucky and find themselves at the front by the chequered flag.
Of the favorites, we like Blaney to get back on top in 2024. Logano’s the other play among the favorites. Of the sleepers, we like Bell to get his first Talladega win.
For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
