A new week brings a new leader in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Kyle Larson swept both stages and led the most laps in Las Vegas to take his fourth win of the season and second of the playoffs. He’s the first driver to win multiple playoff races in 2023 and subsequently took the lead over William Byron. This week, the grid heads to South Florida for the Cup Series: 4EVER 400. Here’s your betting breakdown for the race.
The 4EVER 400 favorites
Kyle Larson (+275)
Larson’s back on track after a strong Round of 16 preceded a lackluster Round of 12. The Las Vegas win gives him a seven-point lead in the NASCAR standings and, crucially more stage points.
Larson dominantly won this event last year, taking both stage wins and holding off a charging Ross Chastain and AJ Allmendinger for the win. He’s finished at least fifth in five of the last seven races at Homestead. He’s a shoo-in to finish in the top five once again, at least.
Martin Truex Jr. (+550)
Truex Jr. finally got his first top-10 result of the playoffs last week in Las Vegas with a ninth-place finish. The regular season champion’s struggled in much of the first half of the postseason. Now, he comes to one of his best tracks on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. His average finish in Homestead (ninth) is second only to Gateway on the calendar. He needs a win to regain the momentum he had during the regular season. Luckily, Homestead may be the perfect place for it.
Tyler Reddick (+600)
After a strong Round of 16, Reddick’s dropped off in the last four races. He improved in Charlotte with pole position and a stage win and followed that with eighth place last week in Las Vegas. He’s 16 points behind Denny Hamlin for fourth place in the NASCAR standings and needs a strong finish to make the championship four for the first time.
He raced well in the playoff opener in Darlington, a relatively similar track to Homestead. He’s managed two top-five finishes at a Homestead in three races and could break through for his first win.
William Byron (+675)
Byron remains the most consistent driver in the playoffs so far, with his seventh-place finish in Las Vegas. He’s finished 10th or better in seven of the eight playoff races to date. Byron has a good track record in Homestead. Last season, he took pole position and led 32 laps. In 2021, he won from 31st on the starting grid.
In the two Darlington races this season, he won and finished fourth. He’s been reliable all during the playoffs and remains a solid bet to fight for a win once again.
Denny Hamlin (+700)
Hamlin’s 10th place in Las Vegas was a solid bounce-back from his 37th-place finish in Charlotte. He’s tied for third with Truex Jr. in the standings coming into this week.
His three wins in Homestead is the most among all active Cup Series drivers. It’s one of his top four tracks by average finish on the schedule. He’s started on pole six times in the last eight races here. His best track on the calendar? Darlington. He’ll be fighting for the win again this week.
Cup Series: 4EVER 400 sleepers
Kyle Busch (+1600)
Busch is the only driver on the grid to finish in the top three in both of the last two races. Though he’s eliminated from title contention, one of the more famous NASCAR drivers on the grid could be a contender in Homestead.
He last won in 2002 but finished eighth last season. This year, he won in Fontana and finished seventh and 11th in the two Darlington races. He could play spoiler to the top eight drivers fighting for the title with his recent momentum.
Brad Keselowski (+1800)
Despite going winless so far in 2023, Keselowski is one of the most consistent drivers in the playoffs. His fourth-place finish in Las Vegas makes it six top-10 results in eight races. In Darlington this season, he finished fourth and sixth.
Keselowski’s never won in Homestead but has finished in the top 10 in nearly half of his 15 career events here. He’s started in the top 10 in every Homestead race since 2011. He’ll likely be at least close to the front with a chance to fight for the win.
Kevin Harvick (+2800)
Harvick can’t go winless in his final Cup Series season, right? The 2014 champion’s the best driver on the grid by average finish in Homestead. His average result — seventh — is two better than the next-best driver, Truex Jr.
He’s managed a top 10 result in 19 of his 22 career NASCAR races here, and it’s by far his best on the calendar in his long Cup Series career. A win would be a storybook ending for Harvick’s time in the Cup Series.
Cup Series: 4EVER 400 picks
Homestead is a demanding track. This weekend’s set for temperatures close to 90 degrees with relatively high humidity. Tire degradation will be high as usual.
Of the favorites, Larson or Hamlin seem like the best choices. The former’s the defending winner at this track and fresh off a strong win in Las Vegas. The latter’s won more races than any other active driver in Homestead.
Harvick is the most promising of the sleepers given his track record and could offer a very good payout.