NASCAR Cup Series Food City Dirt Race Odds

Food City Dirt Race Odds Preview: It took seven weeks but Kyle Larson finally got a win on the board in Richmond. The 2021 Cup Series champion broke through after holding off the field for the last 25 laps. With the win, he’s up to sixth in the NASCAR standings. Alex Bowman finished eighth to maintain his lead at the top of the standings over Ross Chastain in second. But his lead has shrunk from 15 points to just four.

This week, the grid heads west to Bristol for the only dirt race of the 2023 Cup Series schedule. It’s just the third year that the first Bristol race of the season (the later one coming during the playoffs) has been on a dirt track. The Food City Dirt Race provides a unique challenge for all drivers and there are a few who stand out in the odds for a win on Sunday.

Larson leads the way again

Continuing Our Food City Dirt Race Odds Preview: Fresh off of his first win of the season, Larson has the best odds (+550) for victory on Sunday. He, like most all of the drivers on the grid, has limited Cup Series experience on the dirt. In 2021, he started first but crashed and finished 29th. Last year Larson started fifth and made it to fourth by the chequered flag.

Tyler Reddick (+600) is next-best behind Larson. He’s already notched a win this season two weeks ago in Austin. He nearly won this race last season. Reddick and Chase Briscoe were fighting for the win on the last lap when the two made contact in turn three.

Kyle Busch passed Reddick just before the finish line to snatch victory from him. He’ll be looking to make good on that missed opportunity last year. The year before, he drove from 27th on the starting grid up to seventh, showing his pace there is no fluke.

Christopher Bell (+650) rounds out the three favorites at the top. Bell’s currently third in the Cup Series standings and has had an up-and-down year so far. A podium in Daytona preceded 32nd in Fontana. Fifth-, sixth-, and third-place finishes made up for that only to be followed by a 31st-place result in Austin.

Fourth place last week in Richmond keeps him near the sharp end of the standings. In two dirt races in Bristol, Bell’s been okay. He started 15th in 2021 only to crash on lap 54. Last year, he was second to start the race but fell to seventh by the chequered flag.

Prior winners in the next group

The odds drop off after Bell. Three drivers are tied at +1000: defending Cup Series champion Joey Logano, Briscoe, and William Byron.

Logano became the first Cup Series dirt race winner in 51 years with his victory at Bristol in 2021. The rain-delayed Monday race saw multiple accidents take out favorites like Larson and Bell. Logano made it through the overtime restart to win from 10th. He started from 10th again last year and made it to third for another podium. Both of those strong results come from handling dynamic races well.

Briscoe nearly had the win last year if not for the contact with Reddick. In the end, he managed to take 22nd after winning stage two of the race and leading 59 laps. Two years ago he went from 25th to 20th. Backing him is banking on last year being a sign of his pace in the dirt instead of a one-off.

Byron remains the only driver with multiple Cup Series wins in 2023. Last week, he won the first stage and led the most laps before spinning after making contact with Bell. Byron’s had solid results in Bristol on the dirt – eighth to sixth in 2021 and 19th to 18th last year. He’d need to rely on more of his early-season pace than track record to fight for the win this Sunday.

Last year’s winner Busch sits at +1200. He led just one lap all race but managed to get the win. A year prior, he led seven laps but finished 17th behind his brother Kurt. This season he’s off to his best start since his last title-winning campaign in 2019. He’d need more of that momentum to continue with a strong showing on Sunday.

Longer Shots to Consider for The Food City Dirt Race

Two drivers sit at +2500 for Sunday’s race: Daniel Suarez and Martin Truex Jr. This is odd considering the two drivers have led nearly as many laps together (248) than the rest of the field combined (255) in Bristol in the dirt.

Truex Jr. was in control of the 2021 event, leading 126 laps total. He won the first stage and took fourth in the second stage. Despite this early success, he’d cut a tire on the final lap of overtime and manage just 19th from fifth on the starting grid. He took the Camping World Truck Series win that day as well. Last year was less eventful with a 21st-place finish from 30th on the grid.

Suarez’s success is spread across both 2021 and 2022. Logano took the lead from Suarez on lap 193 in 2021 after 58 laps in front. Suarez was fourth and second in the first two stages of the race. He managed fourth overall despite losing the lead late. Last year he took third in the second stage of the race and led for 64 laps. He’s found his way at times in the dirt and could be a good long-shot choice for just his second career victory.

Predictions for the 63rd Annual Food City Dirt Race

Concluding Our Food City Dirt Race Odds Preview: Larson could get the hot hand and punch a ticket to the Cup Series playoffs early with another win this weekend. But given his track record in Bristol in the dirt, Reddick looks like the best frontrunning choice. He was less than half a lap from victory last season and could come good on that this weekend.

If those odds don’t offer a good enough payout, Logano’s shown he can take over late in races if need be and Suarez has been consistently leading laps in the dirt. The forecast shows rain for Bristol leading up to the race this weekend which could jumble the order and provide mixed conditions for an already exciting race. Stay tuned all season long for the latest NASCAR Cup Odds along with the NASCAR cup series standings.

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