ToyotaCare 250 Odds: The Xfinity Series Returns to Richmond

Last Saturday a trio of NASCAR Cup Series took all podium spots at Circuit of the Americas. A.J. Allmendinger won ahead of William Byron and 2022 Xfinity Series champion Ty Gibbs. Xfinity Series championship leader Austin Hill finished 37th after retiring with engine problems on lap 13. That caused his lead to cut 15 points ahead of Riley Herbst.

This week, the Xfinity Series returns to a short-track oval in Richmond. With no Cup Series drivers set to compete, it’ll be a chance for the Xfinity regulars to battle for the win. Here’s your betting primer for the ToyotaCare 250:

Trio at The Top

John Hunter Nemechek (+330) comes into the race with the best odds for a win. Nemechek has one win in 2023 already in Fontana and finished at last eighth in every race before Austin. A 27th-place result there was a big drop off but luckily it did not hurt him too much in the championship standings.

He’s raced well in Richmond recently. Last year he finished second to teammate Gibbs by just 0.116 seconds after a late bump moved him to second. In 2021, Nemechek finished third. He’s consistently performed better in his Xfinity Series odds on short-track ovals like Richmond. He’s a favorite for good reason.

Justin Allgaier (+425) is looking for his first win of the season. A solid fifth-place finish last weekend bumps him up to fourth in the Xfinity standings. He has two career wins in Richmond (both in 2020) and his team, JR Motorsports, has won three of the last four races in Richmond. That combination of driver and team success could give him an edge this weekend.

Josh Berry (+450) rounds out the top three favorites from oddsmakers. Like Allgaier, he’s yet to win in 2023 but has been consistent after the season opener in Daytona. In the following five races, he’s finished no worse than eighth. He’s also another JR Motorsports driver and that recent team success could give him an edge. He’s had two top-10 finishes in his career in Richmond but could pull a slight surprise this weekend.

Rookie Leads Next-Best for Victory in Richmond

Rookie Sammy Smith (+650) notched his first Xfinity Series win in Phoenix. That made him one of the youngest winners in series history. He also was the best Xfinity regular last time out in Austin by finishing fourth. That puts him seventh in the standings.

The other team with recent success in Richmond besides JR Motorsports is Joe Gibbs Racing. Two wins in 2018, one in 2019, and another in 2022 show the team knows how to win in Richmond. Smith has shown speed so far in his first season and the team could set him up for a win.

Sammy Smith’s tied with Sam Mayer (+650) in odds for victory. He’s another JR Motorsports driver and finished third in last year’s race. His 2023 season has been a bit up and down but he’s already notched a podium (second in Fontana) and three other top-10 finishes.

Rookie Chandler Smith (+700) sits close behind them both. He’s had a limited career running at Richmond. But in those few races, he’s done well. Three Camping World Truck Series events included 12th-, fourth-, and first-place finishes. He has the track record there to have a chance for a win.

Longer Shots to Note for The ToyotaCare 250

Championship leader Hill (+900) is far from the best odds. He’s won half of the Xfinity races in 2023 but doesn’t have as much experience in Richmond. Last year saw him finish 18th.

The year before, he took 10th in the Camping World Truck Series. This season’s been a good one for Hill so far up until last weekend. He could bounce back but a win seems unlikely.

If you’re looking for another JR Motorsports driver with a higher payout, Brandon Jones sits at +2000. His career-best finish in Richmond was eighth in 2020 and 2018. Teammates Allgaier and Berry have better track records here but Jones could be worth a flyer based on his team alone.

Predictions for the ToyotaCare 250

With Cup Series drivers not in the picture for Richmond, there’s a chance for lots of drivers to make up ground in the championship. We think Allgaier’s combination of a great team and history of victory in Richmond sets him up to take his first win of the season and the first since New Hampshire last year.

JR Motorsports has ruled Richmond’s short track recently and he’s already benefitted from it in years past. It’s a winning combination.

For a bigger payout, Mayer is an intriguing choice. The team behind him will be solid and he’s improved in the last two races in making his way up to sixth in the championship. Keep up with the latest NASCAR schedule and happenings right here on our forum.

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